On May 19 local time, the helicopter taken by President Lehi of Iran accidentally crashed into a mountain. It has been confirmed that Lehi and Iranian Foreign Minister Heyan were killed. The sudden news shocked the whole world. Some people worried that the situation in the Middle East would be affected, and some people worried that the international situation would change as a result. The only thing that can be confirmed is that Iran will usher in overnight changes.
Although Iran is a religious country, it also has a secular administrative system, so the president's position in the country is very important. Who will take the responsibility after Leahy's death? This is a huge test for Iran. At present, it is generally believed that the former President Ahmadinejad has ushered in an excellent opportunity to turn around. Can this Middle East strongman with the title of "anti American fighter" perform the return of the king?
More than a month ago, Ahmadinejad suddenly announced that he would participate in the 2025 presidential election, which is more or less surprising. Not only because Ahmadinejad has been silent for a long time, the key is that the outside world has not caught Khamenei's intention to use him. In Iran, a special country, Supreme Leader Khamenei has the final decision on all matters. That is to say, whoever Khamenei wants to be president will become president. The President only has administrative power, and the real core military power and religious affairs power are in the hands of Khamenei.
As we all know, Ahmadinejad was once a highly trusted and capable cadre of Khamenei. However, during his tenure, he had differences and contradictions with the Supreme Leader, and after he left office, he was also subjected to political repression. Ahmadinejad has repeatedly made fierce criticisms of the Lehi government during the period when he lost power, accusing the Lehi government of being too weak to the United States and Israel, so that senior Iranian generals were killed one after another. However, the retaliation of the Iranian government further exposed the weakness of the current government.
Iran has been famous for its tough anti American attitude for many years, and Ahmadinejad is also known as the "anti American fighter". Toughness is his biggest characteristic. It is also because of this that he has a very high prestige in Iran, which is also an important reason why he was elected president twice. According to our analysis, the reason why Ahmadinejad announced his comeback is that opportunities have emerged.
First, the election will be held one year later. He needs to start making preparations. Secondly, the Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria aroused the anger of the Iranian people. However, the retaliation of the Lehi government was very weak, and the people missed the days when Ahmadinejad was puffing up his eyebrows. Third, Iran has lost confidence in the current national system, especially in the situation that Khamenei monopolizes the supreme power for life.
Iran held parliamentary elections and expert meeting elections not long ago, and the participation of the people was not high, even not reaching the minimum quorum. This is very worrying for Iran's decision-makers. On the one hand, this election negates the legitimacy of the Iranian regime, and on the other hand, it reflects that Iran's decision-makers are losing the trust and support of its citizens. This has created a basic condition for Ahmadinejad, who is famous for his tough and secularized reform, to come back.
The supreme leader of Iran is a special existence, which is not a scientific system design, but the emergence of special historical figures under special historical conditions. After the death of Khamenei, there is no need for the position of the supreme leader to exist. Even if it is retained, it can only be a false position. At present, Khamenei's power does not come from the system, but from his strength and prestige. Apart from him, no other person in Iran has such strength.
Khamenei is 85 years old, and his health is getting worse and worse. In the future, the president will become the actual top leader of Iran. In fact, Khamenei chose Lech as his successor to achieve the unification of power and a smooth handover, but Lech was unlucky.
Although Lehi is dead and Ahmadinejad has lost a heavyweight opponent, it does not mean that he can safely win. According to the current system in Iran, elections will be held within 50 days after Lehi's death to elect a new president. Ahmadinejad does not have enough time to prepare for the contest with Khamenei.
In addition, Khamenei's son Moitaba is also one of his successors, and he holds the army and security institutions, so his strength and ambition cannot be underestimated. The current First Vice President Mukhber is also a person whom Khamenei values. At present, the political force supporting Ahmadinejad has only one extremely hardline party, Pedali. Whether Ahmadinejad can gain more support and regain the trust of Khamenei in a short period of 50 days is the key to his re-election!
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