Character | Leslie Crashed: How Does It Affect? What political legacy does he leave after three years in office?

On May 20, Xinhua News Agency quoted Iran's Maher News Agency as saying that Iranian President Lehi was killed in a helicopter accident. Earlier, Xinhua News Agency quoted Iranian media reports on the 19th that a helicopter carrying President Leahy and senior officials of Iran had an accident on the 19th and made an emergency landing in East Azerbaijan Province in northwest Iran. The live pictures released by Iran's state television show that the plane hit a mountain, but as of press release, the official has not disclosed the cause of the crash.

According to the report of the IRNA news agency, Lehi crashed on his way back to Iran after attending the commencement ceremony of a dam at the border between Iran and Azerbaijan.

On May 20, 2024 local time, the rescue team determined the exact location map/visual China of the accident helicopter carrying President Leahy of Iran and his delegation

Three years ago, Leahy won the election with 62% of the votes in the general election with the lowest voting rate in Iran's history, and was elected the eighth president of Iran. This time, only 48.8% of eligible voters participated in the voting, and only 26% of registered voters in the capital Tehran participated.

"We will be committed to the ideal of revolution and the elimination of rent-seeking so that the economy can resist the pressure of inflation. We will strengthen our own currency, create stability in the economic field, strive to achieve self-sufficiency, address the basic needs of the people, promote scientific and technological progress, optimize the management of water and natural gas resources, and protect the environment." On August 5, 2021, Leahy said in his inaugural speech.

However, in the past three years, Iran's economy does not seem to have improved much. Currency devaluation, high unemployment rate and US sanctions continue. According to previous reports of CCTV News, official statistics from 2019 to now show that Iran's annual inflation rate is as high as about 50%. According to the report released by the Iranian National Statistics Center (SCI) in March this year, as of March 19, 2024, the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of this year (about January to March 2024) was 8.6%. According to a report on the website of Germany's Le Monde on April 17 this year, after Iran launched an attack on Israeli territory, the United States will impose new sanctions on Iran, which may focus on restricting Iran's oil exports.

During his nearly three years in power, Leahy pushed Iran's domestic political and social policies to a more conservative direction, and the relations with the United States and other western countries further deteriorated, but he also started to repair some diplomatic relations with neighboring countries. Two major events occurred during Lehi's presidency: on September 16, 2022, Amini, 22, died in the custody of the Iranian moral police due to "improper headband wearing", and then a nationwide large-scale demonstration broke out in Iran; After the escalation of a new round of Palestinian Israeli conflict, Iran launched an attack on Israel, supported Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Hussain armed forces in Yemen, and became involved in the vortex of the Middle East. In addition, during Lech's tenure, Iran also achieved a diplomatic breakthrough with Saudi Arabia, a strong regional rival. On the evening of March 10, 2023, seven years after the break of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Saudi Arabia and Iran reached a settlement in Beijing. On April 22, Leahy arrived in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, for a three-day visit; In January this year, the two countries air raided each other's territory. Leahy's visit was to repair relations with neighboring countries.

The highest spiritual leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is 85 years old. Some analysts believe that, given the strong relationship between Lech and Iranian institutions at all levels, he could have been re elected, or even become Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's successor. Leahy's death undoubtedly left greater uncertainty for Iran's political arena, and may also cast a shadow on the already turbulent regional situation.

This photo taken in the border area between Iran and Azerbaijan on May 19 shows that Iranian President Lehi and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev attended the completion ceremony of the reservoir dam together Xinhua News Agency/Reuters

Khamenei's students and followers

In December 1960, Lehi was born into a priest family in Mashhad, a Shiite holy city in northeast Iran, and was influenced by religion since childhood. While he was still learning to walk, Iran's domestic politics were undergoing profound changes. The then Shah (King) Pahlavi of Iran announced the implementation of the "white revolution", and implemented a series of reform measures, such as land reform, giving women the right to vote, nationalizing forest water sources, and workers participating in dividends.

Although the reform has accelerated the process of modernization and urbanization in Iran, because the reform has weakened the influence of Shiite religious groups in the civil society, the reform carried out by Pahlavi was strongly resisted by Shiite religious groups and some Shiite Muslims. This dissatisfaction is particularly evident in Mashhad, one of the Shiite holy cities. The Shiite religious groups and their subordinate organizations in Mashhad are rich and have an important impact on the local economy.

In 1975, young Leahy came to the largest theological seminary in Iran - Qom Theological Seminary, which is the most important theological center of Shi'ites. At that time, many clergy and students in Qom were involved in the Islamic revolutionary movement of the Shiite religious leader Khomeini, opposing the Pahlavi regime, and Lehi also actively participated in it.

In 1977, the international oil price continued to decline, Iran's financial situation deteriorated sharply, and the Pahlavi dynasty was forced to implement austerity policies. At the same time, the gap between rich and poor in Iran was already unbearable. Under this circumstance, protests and demonstrations have continued to break out all over Iran since 1977. Due to the paralysis of the military and police system, it was difficult for the Pahlavi dynasty to suppress the protests. By January 1979, the Shah under heavy pressure was forced to leave Iran, and the Pahlavi dynasty was overthrown.

After the success of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, Khomeini returned to Iran with the support of anti Shah forces. Under his leadership, the Islamic Republic, a theocratic regime under the "Fakih tutelage" (the governance of Islamic jurists), was founded on the ruins of the Pahlavi dynasty.

The new Islamic Republic is facing internal and external problems. At home, it should deal with the opposition of the supporters of Pahlavi and secularist left-wing people. At abroad, it is a full-scale war with neighboring Iraq. From the beginning of his career, Leahy devoted himself to defending the new regime.

After the establishment of the Islamic Republic, Leahy was selected to participate in administrative training courses. According to the US Foreign Policy magazine, among the clergy teaching for this group of future public officials is the current Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. At the age of 19, Leahy was appointed clerk of a local court in Karaj, near Tehran. By the age of 20, Leahy was Karaj's chief prosecutor.

In 1985, Leahy was promoted to Deputy Procurator General of Tehran, the capital of Iran.

In 1989, Khomeini died, and Khamenei was appointed the supreme leader of Iran. After that, Lech began to rise in Iran's judicial system, successively serving as Tehran's Attorney General, Iran's Deputy Chief Justice and Iran's Chief Justice Officer.

In addition to serving in many senior judicial positions, Khamenei also appointed Lehi as the guardian of the Mashhad Imam Reza Holy Land in 2016. The Holy Land is known as the "Heart of Iranian Shiites", and it has the religious foundation with the strongest financial resources in Iran. When appointed, Khamenei called Lehi a "trustworthy person with excellent experience". Al Jazeera reported that through this appointment, Leahy has also established a very close relationship with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

In 2019, Khamenei officially appointed Lehi as Iran's judicial director. Khamenei said in the appointment statement that the reason for promoting Lehi is that he has rich knowledge in justice and theology, impartiality, high credibility and years of judicial work experience. He called on Leahy to "stand together with the people and the revolution and fight against corruption" in his new post.

Sanam Vakil, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa project of Chatham House, told the Associated Press that Lehi is a person trusted by Iran's political system, especially by Khamenei. Wazir pointed out that Lehi's background and experience are quite similar to that of Khamenei.

"If Khamenei is considering his (political) heritage, he may seek a person who is similar to himself and has the same ideology, and seek to defend the achievements of Khamenei in the past 30 years," Wazir added.

Take over the government in a crisis

The Iranian presidential election in 2021 is not the first time Lech has participated in the election. As early as 2017, Lech successfully won the election qualification, but he lost to the then President Rouhani who won 57.14% of the votes with 38.28% of the votes. Rouhani is the representative of Iran's reformists, who seek to ease relations with the West and promote gradual easing and secularization reform in Iran.

However, four years later, the reformers were defeated, and Lehi, a hardliner representative with theological background who wanted to expand Iran's nuclear program, came to power. As for Leahy's coming to power, Jin Liangxiang, an associate researcher at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, said, "The US policy of suppressing Iran coincided with the tenure of reformers, which made the Iranian people's dissatisfaction with the status quo all vent to reformers."

However, it is worth noting that Liu Zhongmin, a professor of the Middle East Research Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, once wrote in the surging news article that Lehi's successful election to the presidency is closely related to the high recognition and strong support of religious leader Khamenei. Political analysts believe that Lehi is a loyal executor of the Khamenei policy and a promoter of the growing power of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard in Iran's politics and economy.

"He is not a person who exudes charm. His speech did not inspire people to take to the streets. What he implements is policy." Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa project of Chatham House, told the New York Times, "The most important thing is that he is an insider of the regime. He is an ideologist who works within and through the system."

On June 21, 2021 local time, Iran's president-elect Ibrahim Lehi said at a press conference that he would not meet with US President Biden or negotiate on topics such as Iran's ballistic missile project

Under the severe sanctions of the United States and other western countries, Iran's economic development has faced difficulties in recent years, and has been plagued by inflation, currency depreciation, high unemployment and other issues. Leahy took over a country in social and economic crisis.

In his election campaign, Leahy promised to stabilize the economy, meet the basic needs of the people, fight corruption and better manage water and natural gas resources. After taking office, Leahy will go to Iranian provinces every week to understand the problems faced by ordinary Iranian people and try to appease them. He also announced a series of economic reform policies known as "economic surgery", including the termination of exchange rate subsidies, the issuance of cash and electronic coupons for ordinary families, with the aim of combating rent-seeking and curbing inflation, so as to ease the economic crisis in Iran.

According to rough calculation, Djavad Salehi Esfahani, an Iranian American economist, believes that these reform measures can really improve Iran's income distribution. In his view, in the case of implementing these policies, Iran's Gini index (an indicator to measure income inequality, the lower the number, the higher the degree of equality) will drop from 37.7 to 32.7.

Despite the concurrent policies, the price of bread and other staple foods in Iran is soaring, which has triggered protests in many provinces. Some insiders and critics of the Iranian government said to the foreign opposition media Iran international that the Leahy government not only "has no economic plan", but also "lacks corresponding economic theory". They also believe that in the short term, Iran's economic prospects are bleak. In addition, due to the further depreciation of Iran's domestic currency since January this year, the inflation rate is expected to rise to about 50%.

Han Jianwei, associate professor of the Middle East Research Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, once mentioned in an interview with the surging news that from the long-term observation of Iran, the Iranian government's focus will not turn to economic issues. This is rooted in the fact that its revolutionary ideology has been internalized into the ruling philosophy and foreign strategy of the Iranian government, and is especially regarded as the most fundamental core interest by the hard line conservatives.

In his article, Foreign Policy wrote that after three years in power, Leahy pushed Iran's domestic political and social policies to a more conservative direction.

On September 20, 2022 local time, a Turkish protester held the portrait of Mahsa Amini, an Iranian woman who died after being detained by the moral police for not wearing a headscarf properly, to support her information picture/visual China

One year after his election, the Leahy government strengthened the management of women's "dress code", which became a controversial policy during his tenure. According to the Observer Network, in September 2022, Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish woman, was arrested by the moral police for violating the dress code, and later died in custody. This incident has also become the trigger for Iran's large-scale protests. Protesters chanted anti-government slogans and burned headscarves to demand Iran to amend its laws. The Voice of Germany said that this demonstration resulted in more than 500 deaths and nearly 20000 arrests. But even after the protest movement was suppressed, many women still ignored the provisions of the headscarf as a silent protest. Ten months later, in July 2023, Iran's official news agency IRNA reported that Saeed Montazer Almehdi, a police spokesman, said: "The police will send police cars and walking policemen to patrol, warn those who do not obey police orders and ignore the consequences of wearing illegal clothes, take legal measures and transfer them to the judicial department."

"Effective" foreign policy

Some analysts believe that despite the poor domestic economic situation and occasional social unrest during Lech's tenure, the Lech government has made substantive breakthroughs in the field of foreign policy, which has revitalized Iran's global status.

In terms of regional relations, Leahy strengthened dialogue with his old enemy Saudi Arabia and promoted the reconciliation process between the two countries during his tenure. On March 10, 2023, under the mediation of China, the governments of Iran and Saudi Arabia reached an agreement and announced that they agreed to resume diplomatic relations. To some extent, the reconciliation process between Iran and Saudi Arabia has shown the Iranian people Lech's ability in the diplomatic field.

On January 5, 2024 local time, President Lehi of Iran put his hand on his chest at the funeral of the victims of the Kelman explosion, and paid tribute to the crowd. Data map/Visual China

Although Iran's relations with the United States and other western countries are still in a deep stalemate, Lech skillfully used asymmetric deterrence, advocated regionalism and pursued the "look east" policy and other strategies during his tenure, which not only avoided Iran's diplomatic isolation, but also further strengthened Iran's role in the Gulf region and even the Middle East. In 2023 and 2024, Iran successively joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS cooperation mechanism.

With the outbreak of a new round of Palestinian Israeli conflict, Iran has continued its hostile policy towards Israel under the leadership of Leahy. At the beginning of April, when Israel attacked the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, Leahy responded with a tough attitude and launched an unprecedented missile and drone attack on Israel.

Luciano Zakala, an associate professor at the Gulf Research Center of Qatar University, believes that at the beginning of taking office, many people had predicted that the Leahy government would fall into a state of diplomatic isolation. However, Leahy showed the skill of managing complicated international diplomacy: he made great progress on the basis of his predecessor, not only actively participated in regional activities, but also reestablished Iran's global status. "Although Lech still has considerable challenges (at home), especially in the economic and social fields, his diplomatic strategy shows the image of Iran and expands its international influence." Zakala said.

In this regard, Liu Zhongmin, a professor at the Middle East Research Institute of Shanghai Foreign Studies University, once pointed out in an article that Iran is hard to achieve real integration into the world and opening up to the outside world due to the ideological diplomacy of "exporting revolution" and strong anti western stance, especially the structural contradiction between Iran and the United States.

What will happen in Iran after that?

According to Lyse Doucet, the BBC's chief international affairs reporter, the death of Leahy had little impact on Iran's foreign and domestic policies. He did not propose major new policies during his presidency, and his political heritage would not be regarded as significant. It is expected that Iran's conservatives will continue their tough policies and continue to strengthen their power control over various institutions.

On May 20, Khamenei expressed condolences for the death of President Leahy, Foreign Minister Abdullahian and other personnel in the helicopter "hard landing incident", and said that, according to Article 131 of the Iranian Constitution, the first Vice President Mukhber will be responsible for managing the government, and Mukhber has the obligation to arrange the presidential election with the Speaker and the Chief Justice within 50 days at most.

Leahy is widely regarded as the successor of Khamenei. Arash Azizi, a senior lecturer in history and political science at Clemson University, wrote in the Atlantic magazine that Leahy will become president in 2021, which is the least competitive election in Iran since 1997. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei banned all other important candidates from running. Not only reformists, but also middle conservatives, and even the former hardliner President Ahmadinejad, whom Khamenei regarded as his opponent, were disqualified.

Arash Aziz believes that Lehi seems to be a safe candidate for the presidency, and the same qualities make him a major contender to succeed Ali Khamenei as the supreme leader. According to the Constitution of Iran, only clergy with rich political experience can become the head of state. "Now, many clergy who meet this condition have died or been marginalized politically (some of them do not agree with the hardline politics of Khamenei), which has left Lehi with opportunities."

On May 10, the second round of voting in Iran's 12th parliamentary election was just completed, announcing that the quorum had been completed and the remaining 45 parliamentary seats had been determined. Previously, the Iranian Parliament held the first round of voting on March 1. The voting rate reached the lowest level since the 1979 revolution. The number of votes obtained by candidates did not meet the statutory requirements, and some seats could not be elected. Therefore, a second round of voting was required. From the results, conservatives have occupied an absolute dominant position (about 245 representatives in 290 seats), and Iran has ushered in an era when hard line conservatives are in full power.

This parliamentary election is considered to be a contest within the hardline camp. Among them, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the Speaker of the Parliament, the former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Air Force and the former mayor of Tehran, received the support of the main conservative political parties and many branches of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard.

According to the regular schedule, the next presidential election was originally scheduled to be held in 2025. According to the Constitution of Iran, the committee composed of the First Vice President Mukhber, the Speaker of the Parliament, Khalibav, and the Chief Justice, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejheyi, must organize new elections within 50 days.

Arash Aziz believed that Lehi's death would change the balance of power among various factions in Iran. He mentioned that everyone knows Kalibav's ambition. Since 2005, he has run for president many times. Kalibav was a commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard during the Iran Iraq War. Unlike Lehi, Kalibav was a technocrat who gained some support within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. He was the mayor of Tehran for a long time (2005-2017).

But Kalibav lacks a religious background, and Khamenei may be difficult to identify with it. In addition, some government officials and former officials who supported Karibav also advocated that Khamenei's son Mojetaba should succeed his father as the supreme leader. For a long time, Mojitaba has been behind the scenes. People know little about the political position and views of the 54 year old "potential successor", but it is generally believed that he is a strong contender for this position.

At the end of the article, Arash Aziz wrote that many people expected that there would be a fierce power struggle in Iran, but most people expected that the struggle would take place after the death of Khamenei. Now, all parties will show their strength in the "rehearsal".