Real estate boom! The bottom has been proved, and China will create a miracle of soft landing

In recent trading days, real estate ETF soared. As I said in the article last Friday, the probability of ETF bottoming out in real estate is 60%. If the first tier cities completely liberalize their purchase restrictions, I think the probability is 80%. Unfortunately, the liberalization of purchase restrictions in the first tier cities is still half hidden, which means the liberalization of conditionally restricted areas.

All my friends who are familiar with me know that I used to only analyze the real estate industry, but this article directly stated that it was real estate ETF. A friend bought it on the same day, and it was 5% of the profit in four trading days, which was the essence of my trading.

The real estate sector of Hong Kong stocks has seen continuous boom. Recently, Hong Kong stocks have risen sharply. Apart from Tencent, it can be said to be real estate.

In addition to the stimulus of opening up and purchase restriction, according to peripheral news, the national purchase and storage of real estate has also become the most important expectation of the current market.

As early as the beginning of last year, we set up a 100 billion yuan housing lease support loan plan, with 8 cities as pilot projects. The main reason is that local governments apply to the central bank for issuing bonds. The funds raised from these bonds are used to purchase local property market inventory and then used as public rental housing.

Now, a year has passed, and I know that Chongqing has begun to implement it. In the next step, it is indeed possible to promote it nationwide. Recently, Lin'an District of Hangzhou announced that it would purchase a batch of houses in the market for public rental housing.

Hangzhou is not one of the eight pilot cities. I don't know whether it has started to be popularized, or whether Hangzhou is rich and has not issued the bonds of the housing lease support loan plan. In any case, the state's purchase of houses and then use them as public rental housing is really an important way to solve the current housing market dilemma.

Previously, I thought that the second round of large-scale de stocking of real estate had been started, and the means were diversified. On the supply side, the land supply in the city has been stopped for more than 36 months since the real estate de transformation. Now the housing construction area has declined sharply, and has returned to the level of 2006. On the demand side, the policy of releasing purchase restrictions to stimulate the demand of residents, and some cities directly purchase houses.

Now from a qualitative perspective, there is no problem in the direction of solving the inventory of the property market. Now it is a quantitative confrontation. It depends on whether the balance can be achieved again after supply decreases and demand recovers.

Now, the demand for speculation in real estate is basically eliminated, but when the housing price expectation is unstable, the demand for housing will actually be postponed when it is just needed. The demand has dropped too fast before. From another aspect, it can be seen that the demand for speculation in the last wave of property market has soared, and the proportion of demand for speculation is too high.

If we can achieve a soft landing in real estate, I think nothing can stop the economic recovery, which has never been achieved in other countries. I continue to be cautious and optimistic.