The next step is to release water. If you don't understand it, you will miss the era

As we all know, on the 17th, there were three major advantages in the property market: lowering the down payment ratio, abolishing the lower limit of housing loan interest rate, and lowering the interest rate of provident fund loans.

Now we are most concerned about whether the property market will rebound completely or continue to sink? Where will our economic situation go? Pay attention to me and show you clearly in 3 minutes.

It can be said that if you don't understand the meaning behind the three arrows in the real estate market, you will miss another big era. The strength of the three arrows is really great, but I don't think it is enough to completely reverse the decline. This can force some of the rigid needs out, but it cannot solve the core problems.

Now we don't want to buy a house. The first is the lack of down payment. The key is that the income is too low. The second is that the expectation for the future is too low. The third is that the leverage ratio of residents is too high.

Without a substantial increase in residents' income, it is not realistic for the 64% leveraged residents to continue to buy houses.

In April 24, the selling price of new commercial housing in first tier cities fell 0.6% month on month, and the selling price of second-hand housing in first tier cities fell 1.1% month on month.

It is impossible to quickly reduce this probability through policy stimulus. At present, there are 750 million square meters of inventory and 4.9 billion are under construction.

But the importance of real estate for our economy goes without saying. Real estate must be saved. Since it is necessary to save, and all the measures that have been given at present cannot really reverse the decline, there must be more action in the next step.

So what is this action? It can be said that there is no choice but to release water. To revitalize the property market, it is necessary to increase residents' income and expectations. The only way is to solve the balance sheet of residents by fiscal and monetary expansion.

Now that the purchase restriction has been lifted, the interest rate has also been reduced, and the down payment has also been reduced, a new round of water release is needed to stimulate the economy. However, we are still cautious about whether to release water. Recently, we saw the issuance of special treasury bonds, and the central bank's next purchase of treasury bonds. At the same time, it has been reducing interest rates and cancelling large deposit certificates. These things are just one purpose to improve the circulation speed of money.

The decrease of M1 data in April also indicates that the current market payment capacity is insufficient. The current approach is to increase liquidity by first reducing interest rates and reserve requirements, as well as issuing treasury bonds. However, according to this trend, it will be sooner or later to release water.

What is the final result, whether it is to increase liquidity or release water? No need to guess. Let's open our hands to embrace the era of great inflation. It can be said that every time the era of great inflation comes, it is the process of wealth redistribution.

In 2020, the United States released water, and the global capital market soared. In that year, Big A also soared all the way. In this process, many people's wealth was magnified crazily, and those who did not allocate Big A were harvested in disguise.

Inflation will bring two results. The first is the rise in the price of consumer goods, and the second is the appreciation of assets. If you do not allocate the right assets, how can you be reaped more miserably because of the rise in the price of consumer goods? Then the wealth will not be the same as others.

Therefore, for ordinary people, this is an opportunity to counter attack. If you cannot see such a trend, you will have to continue to move bricks in the future.