May is the most beautiful day on earth. As May goes by, the footsteps of the pension adjustment notice in 2024 become clearer. This is a matter of concern for more than 130 million retirees, who are most concerned about the pension increase in 2024. What is the formula for calculating the pension increase? What is the forecast of pension growth in 2024?
At present, it has been determined that the basic pension of retirees will continue to increase in 2024. At present, the unknown is mainly the pension increase in 2024, which is the core and most concerned issue.
The pension increase in 2024 will only be known after the announcement of the pension adjustment notice in 2024. For this key figure, only predictions are available at present. Do not believe some of the news that the pension increase in 2024 has been confirmed.
To predict pension growth, we should take a comprehensive view, an overall view, and a vertical view. How can we understand it?
To sum up, the factors that determine the pension increase are not single, but multiple conditions. According to the relevant provisions of the Social Insurance Law, the basic pension insurance benefits should be improved in due time according to the average wage growth and price rise of employees.
That is to say, the average wage and price increase of employees are two important conditions that determine the increase of pension. In addition, the overall situation of economic growth, as well as the operation and support capacity of pension insurance funds, should also be considered.
According to the schedule released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the average wage of employees in 2023 will be announced in May, and the specific increase will be known after the announcement. However, the per capita wage income in the per capita disposable income in 2023 increased by 7.1%. In 2023, the economy grew by 5.2%, the accumulated balance of pension insurance fund was close to 6 trillion yuan, and the price increase in 2023 was only 0.2%. The price increase is relatively low, which is a downward factor for the pension increase.
As a whole, according to the budget data released by the Ministry of Finance, the budget for basic pension transfer payment in 2024 is 1116.052 billion yuan, an increase of 106.8 billion yuan or 10.6% over the implementation amount in 2023. The main reason behind this is the increase of pension for retirees and basic pension for urban and rural residents. However, the budget for basic pension transfer payment in 2023 will increase by 15.7%, which means that the budget increase in 2024 will narrow.
Historically, from the perspective of pension growth in the last five years, it will increase by 3.8% in 2023, 4% in 2022, 4.5% in 2021, 5% in 2020, and 5% in 2019. It can be seen that the pension growth in the last five years is generally downward.
Based on the above forecasts, considering the substantial growth of the number of retirees, the pension increase in 2024 is expected to follow the general trend, which may be around 3.5% - 3.8%. The above is only a prediction, which shall be subject to the official announcement.
As far as retirees are concerned, they are most concerned about their pension growth. It should be pointed out that many people have a misconception that the pension increase determined in the pension adjustment notice is their own pension increase. In fact, it is not. It is the overall average increase.
Since pension is a step of quota adjustment, linkage adjustment, and tilt adjustment, it reflects that more is paid more and more is paid more. The length of service and pension level of retirees vary from high to low. The actual increase and increase amount of pension are also very different, with thousands of people.
The formula for calculating the pension increase of retirees is as follows:
Pension increase=(quota adjustment+linkage adjustment+tilt adjustment) ÷ basic pension level of retirees before the increase
For example:
Assume that the pension adjustment rules of a certain province are to increase the fixed amount by 50 yuan, increase the pension linkage by 1.2%, increase the contribution by 2 yuan every year, and make a 30 yuan tilt adjustment for the elderly retirees. Retiree Lao Li, with a pension of 4000 yuan, 30 years of contribution and 72 years of age, how much is the pension increase?
Pension increase=(50+4000 × 1.2%+30 × 2+30) ÷ 4000=4.7%.
After the pension adjustment plan in 2024 is announced, the details of pension adjustment in 2024 will also be announced. If you want to know the pension adjustment plan at the first time, please pay attention to the small edition.
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