01
The boots that stimulate the real estate market finally fell.
Four major policies, four sentence summary:
1 Reduce the interest rate of housing loans and provident fund loans.
It used to be 10000 yuan a month, but 9000 yuan later. Chicken legs are discounted.
2 Reduce the down payment proportion to 15%, the lowest proportion in history.
Eight yuan is enough for 50 yuan chicken leg.
3. Cancel the purchase restriction and the lower limit of the down payment interest rate. If you have money, just buy it.
Probably more and more cities will introduce policies such as buying chicken legs and giving away household registration.
4 Set up 300 billion yuan of affordable housing refinancing to stimulate real estate.
The stall owner of the chicken leg stall pays for the chicken leg himself to ensure that the production chain of chicken leg does not fall into a standstill.
Of course, this is not the end. As far as I know, there is a determination to save the property market this time, and it is the goal of "saving until saving".
A week ago, I also made a prompt in my knowledge planet.
However, I personally don't think that these combos are "Wang Fried" advocated by the media.
On the contrary, this is still a means to solve the external problems without curing the root causes.
And one of them contains huge financial risks - the down payment ratio is reduced to 15%.
The ultra-low down payment of 15% means that the leverage is rising, and the risk factors of buyers are also rising.
For example, if the house price continues to fall, the down payment will soon be lost if 450000 yuan buys a house of 3 million yuan.
Secondly, the monthly repayment of loans will also rise, which requires that the future work of migrant workers should be stable and their wages should also rise steadily. From the perspective of the current treacherous global economy, there is some optimism.
Thirdly, once there is a large area of supply failure and loan repayment failure, it is very easy to cause house sales stampede and financial risks.
Take the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2007 for example. At that time, the banks in the United States directly paid no down payment to support the purchase of a house. However, when the house price fell later, a large number of defaulted bad debts emerged, which triggered a financial storm.
Therefore, it is hard to say that reducing the down payment is really good, but it increases the real cost and market risk of buying a house.
Of course, the current policy is not a big stimulus to the general public of Roper, but more targeted at civil servants with stable income.
The 0.25 interest rate cut by the provident fund is simply tailor-made.
Did Mr. Zhou and his uncles realize and take responsibility?
Now is the time to buy a house for our country!
As for the future of housing prices, anyway, the policy will always stimulate, which will have a certain effect on curbing the decline in the short term.
02
The key to the medium and long term housing price is "cost"!
Look at the economy in the medium term and the population in the long term.
1. Can we provide more stable jobs to make people earn money? Income is the prerequisite for consumption.
If you have no money in your pocket, the house is cheap. What about the future mortgage?
How can people ensure that they can afford to pay their monthly payments in the next 30 years?
It is necessary to create an environment suitable for population reproduction.
According to the data, the newly born population has halved in recent years, referring to the experience of Japan and South Korea.
How can housing prices rise without population support?
Who will digest such a large inventory and supply?
Swimming in a pool without water is wrong!
So I want to say something boldly:
Most people in China love the land under their feet, and they don't have any overseas small houses.
We built the house to let everyone have a room to live in, and to protect the poor people in the world.
It is not to stimulate land sales, to brush off political achievements, or to preserve the interests of a small number of vested interests.
The money surplus is pushing up the debts and the income of a few people.
The long-term rise of the housing market and stock market depends on the increase of most people's income.
This is basic economic common sense.
You really can't judge. Just look at what Li Ka shing is doing now.
We should make a plan. We should not treat head pain and foot pain. We should look at it at least five years later.
The economy has its own laws, which are not transferred by human will.
If today, in order to pick up the real estate again, we are willing to cut interest rates and increase leverage to induce the market to take orders in a way that exceeds its own affordability.
In the next cycle, the snowball will inevitably fall on everyone's face at a greater and heavier price.
03
Finally, I would like to say a few words to encourage you all.
In the past two years, the sales of welfare lottery tickets have doubled, and many people have put their hopes on superstition and luck.
But this kind of sustenance may only increase worries.
In the next few years, if you want to give up expectations moderately, you should learn to roll a roll and not look down upon hard money.
Boss Xu of Evergrande has become a prisoner, and Boss Yang of Country Garden is no longer famous.
The era of adventurers has come to an end. Be conservative, have a taste for luxury goods, and change your spending habits a little.
Live a good life and pass through this cycle safely.
That is also a great thing.
As Ren Zhengfei said, "Where you have money, you can earn a little", and do everything possible to earn money.
Occasionally, I also do some small jobs to earn enough food and clothing. (trapped by the mortgage)
In general, the 20 years of great fortune in real estate has passed.
If there is any air outlet in the future, the big direction is still science and technology.
Just like the previous three industrial revolutions, which led to new wealth industries.
If you really want to do a good job in the economy, you should finally roll science and technology.
In recent years, some social and economic innovations are basically driven and activated by private enterprises.
If you can't lift something, don't bother to lift it.
Think about how to improve the business environment and activate the innovation power of the people.
The correct solution is to promote openness and vitality through in-depth reform.
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