For more than two years, the statements of Russia and Ukraine on a local war have rarely shown surprising consistency. From May 10 local time, the Russian army launched a new offensive in the northern part of Kharkov State, Ukraine. The Russian side said that the Russian army had advanced more than 5 kilometers in the border, occupied 9 settlements, and approached the outpost town of Wofchansk near the border. Uzbekistan also said that "the situation has obviously deteriorated" and "Russia has achieved tactical success". Local authorities have evacuated more than 6000 residents of Kharkov State. Ukrainian President Zelensky also took this as an excuse and announced that he would postpone participation in all international activities.
However, the occurrence and progress of the war did not seem so simple. Since this year, the center of attack of the Russian army has been in the front line of Donetsk. At the end of April, the Russian army had just occupied Ochrethain, a residential area north of Afjeyevka, and was ready to continue to cut off the traffic line between the key towns of Uzbek army in Donetsk to the north. Since this battle is about whether the Russian army can control the whole territory of Donetsk, both sides are heavily armed. In recent months, the Russian army on the Lugansk Kharkov front has only occasionally launched coordinated and exploratory operations, and there is no sign of large-scale operations.
On May 13, residents evacuated from Ukraine's front villages arrived at a checkpoint outside Kharkov in armored vehicles
In particular, the Kharkov offensive that began on May 11 did not start from the Lugansk front, but from the Russian border in the north of Kharkov State. This is almost a copy of the strategy of the Russian army at the beginning of the "special military operation" in February 2022. At present, the forward of the Russian army is only 20 kilometers away from the urban area of Kharkov. This is the largest offensive action since the Russian army occupied Afjeyevka in February this year. Kharkov is also the second largest city in Ukraine. This change in the situation has aroused great concern.
However, since the battle of Mariupol in May 2022, the Russian army has not carried out large-scale urban offensive in the past two years. The attack and defense of small towns such as Bakmut and Afjeyevka have exhausted the energy of both sides. In addition, the American think-tank "War Research Institute" (ISW) pointed out that Russian troops fighting at the border can get sufficient logistical support and fire support from within. Once entering the deep combat in Kharkov State, the difficulty of such support will be greatly increased.
At present, the Ukrainian army reports that the Russian army has invested about five battalions in the front line of the offensive, which is far from the scale of starting the siege war or urban fortification. As of the 15th, it has not yet been able to occupy the border town of Wolfchangsk. Therefore, some analysts said that the Russian army just wanted to create a buffer zone with threat at the border of Kharkov State. In the past six months, the Belgorod region of Russia bordering Kharkov State has been repeatedly bombarded and harassed by Ukrainian troops and drones. Governor Gladkov said on May 13 that 218 "facilities of great social significance" in the state had been damaged in the war, and the repair work could not be completed until October.
Considering that Kharkov is not the scope of Russia's "sovereignty claim", and the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense is facing personnel adjustment, completing a limited border push, testing the defense capabilities of Ukraine's army, and avoiding Ukraine from continuing to harass Russia, it is a "controllable victory" for Russia.
The fierce battle between Russia and Ukraine in Kharkov area Source: CCTV news video screenshot
The Ukrainian side did not evacuate the residents of Kharkov City. The US State Department said that "no major breakthrough is expected". As for Ukraine's claim that Russia has achieved a "tactical victory", it may be to calm the recent controversy over the recruitment of disabled soldiers and promote the smooth progress of the increasingly difficult recruitment work; Perhaps it is to speed up the arrival of western military assistance. According to the current progress, the first batch of weapons in the US $61 billion aid will arrive in about a month. But as long as the Russian army cannot really attack or encircle Kharkov, western leaders will not think that Ukraine is in a "more serious crisis".
However, the Russian army quickly broke through the Kharkov border, revealing that the defense problem of the Ukrainian military has not been effectively solved. Vouchansk and surrounding settlements are the areas that Ukraine recaptured during the counter offensive in September 2022. Since the counter offensive, the Western military advisers have repeatedly pointed out that the Ukrainian army needs to learn from the experience of the Russian army in building the second line of defense positions in depth to prevent the Russian army from suddenly attacking and breaking through the first line of defense.
In December last year, Ukrainian President Zelensky said that "the most powerful fortifications" had been built in the Kharkov region. However, the Kiev Independent pointed out that due to the continuous cross-border shelling by the Russian army, the reinforcement of border fortifications was extremely difficult, and the defense in depth system around Kharkov was not really established. In addition, the personnel unrest within the Ukrainian army in recent months has also affected the defense and early warning work. On May 11, the Urumqi military headquarters changed the military leader of Kharkov on the spot.
At present, the 93rd Commando Brigade, 59th Motorized Brigade and other elite troops of Urumqi Army are gathering at the front line of Wofchansk. Ukrainian military sources said that the "second line of defense" about 10km from the border is relatively stable and is expected to resist further actions of the Russian army. According to the analysis, the war in Kharkov may soon enter a new stalemate, but the Russian army, which has regained the initiative in the battlefield, may launch a new offensive on the Donetsk front to find the weak points of the Ukrainian army.
Published on the 1140 issue of China Newsweek magazine on April 20, 2024
Magazine title: Kharkov's battlefield deception
Extended reading:
US media: Russia and Ukraine may finally reach an armistice agreement similar to the Korean War
According to Observer Network, "The White House is worried that Russia's momentum is changing the trajectory of the conflict." The New York Times of the United States published a comment article on this topic on May 14 to assess the conflict situation and the trend of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
The US media think that Russia and Ukraine may finally reach an armistice agreement similar to the Korean War through negotiation. The picture shows the national flag of Russia and Ukraine
The article believes that Russia is gaining battlefield advantages and regaining the land lost last year, with the most obvious progress in Kharkov, especially this year's "window of opportunity" for the Russian army to gain strategic initiative, thanks to many favorable factors, such as the delay of military aid by the United States, the shortage of troops in Ukraine, and the upgrading of battlefield technology of the Russian army. More and more people in the Biden administration believe that the next few months may be crucial, and Russia and Ukraine may finally reach a truce agreement similar to the Korean War through negotiations.
"The Russian army often performs poorly at the beginning of the war, but ultimately performs strongly"
The article wrote that just 18 months ago, officials from the White House and the Pentagon were still debating whether the Russian troops sent to Ukraine might collapse and be completely driven out of the country. But now, as the Russian army's technology against American weapons has achieved a leap, the Biden government is increasingly worried that the Russian army is accumulating enough momentum to change the trajectory of the conflict. In recent days, the Russian army launched a new attack near Kharkov, Ukraine's second largest city, forcing Ukraine to transfer its already stretched troops. At the same time, the artillery and unmanned aerial vehicles provided by the United States and NATO have been destroyed by Russia using electronic warfare and other technologies. Although these technologies came a little late, they proved to be surprisingly effective. Russia also successfully jammed the GPS signal, getting rid of the aim of the Ukrainian army's "seahorse" rocket.
On June 9, 2021, the US military demonstrated the "Hemas" rocket during the African lion military exercise
US officials told the New York Times that with the arrival of new weapons and the increase of front-line forces of the Ukrainian army, the Ukrainian army may reverse the recent progress of the Russian army sometime in July. However, officials were hesitant to mention the position of the battle line in a few months or whether the Urumqi army could launch a counterattack again. Although US Secretary of State Lincoln recently insisted that "we are making every effort to provide assistance as soon as possible", US officials believe that President Biden will still not accept the proposal of French President Malone to "send troops to Ukraine when necessary".
Some aides of Biden privately worried that just as the United States learned important lessons from the war, so did the Russian army. What Americans are most worried about is that as the arsenal is constantly updated, the Russian army will regain the positions lost last year.
Some senior people who often deal with Russian affairs are not surprised by the change of events.
"Russia often performs poorly at the beginning of the conflict, but it is strong in the end." Stephen Hadley, the former national security adviser of the George W. Bush administration, said at a meeting at Harvard University last week that Russia can mobilize more troops and make a comeback with the help of a larger military infrastructure.
The New York Times wrote that Russia's battlefield advantage is not caused by a single factor, and various factors are helping Russia establish military advantage.
For example, the delay of US aid to Ukraine has enabled Russia to gain huge artillery advantages; Due to the lack of anti-aircraft ammunition in Ukraine, Russia can use its air force to attack Ukraine's defense line with glide bombs at will; Ukraine is facing a serious shortage of troops and is working hard to provide adequate training for its soldiers.
"This year is a window of opportunity for the Russian army. Russia and Ukraine may reach an armistice agreement similar to the Korean War."
"The Russian army will enjoy material advantages and strategic initiative this year, although this may not be decisive." Michael Kofman, a Russian expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, said, "This year is a window of opportunity for Russia. But if the Russian military cannot turn these advantages into battlefield gains and generate momentum, then as we enter 2025, this window will probably start to close. "
Recently, the Russian army has made significant progress in the Kharkov region. Some external experts warned that the real strategic purpose of Russia's seizure of the surrounding area of Kharkov was to force the Ukrainian army to reinforce the city, thereby weakening the front lines in other regions. This may provide an opportunity for Russia to enter Donbas again in June.
A building near Kharkov was destroyed
"Russia's offensive goal may be to attract Ukrainian reserves and elite troops, and then trap them in Kharkov, thus weakening the strength of other defense lines." Kohman believes that Russia's main goal is still to recapture the rest of Donbas.
"Of course, these battlefield advantages are short-lived, and the war 18 months later may be different from the situation 18 months ago." The New York Times wrote, "but more and more people within the Biden administration believe that the next few months may be crucial, because at some point, the two sides may finally reach a truce agreement through negotiations - similar to the end of the Korean Peninsula in 1953 A truce of fierce fighting, or just freezing the conflict. "
On the occasion of the publication of this article, Blinken again visited Kiev, the capital of Ukraine. He said on the 15th that Ukraine should decide whether to start negotiations with Russia, and the United States would support Kiev in any case.
"On the issue of negotiations, these decisions should be made by Ukraine, not the United States or any other country." He said at a press conference in Kiev, "We will support the decision made by Ukraine."
The Russian satellite news agency said that the Russian side had repeatedly said that at present, there is no prerequisite for the situation in Ukraine to move to a peaceful orbit, and it is an absolute priority for Russia to achieve the goal of special military operations. The Russian side also stressed that the situation in Ukraine can be turned into a peaceful track after considering the actual situation and the new reality. All the requirements of Moscow are very clear.
