The word "expert" has gradually become a derogatory term. In recent years, many experts' comments have always been so innovative, not surprising, and never stop talking, especially about real estate. I don't know whether you have heard of it. Recently, a picture has been circulated on the Internet, saying that by 2035, the house price will be four or five times as high as it is now!
Even when the real estate market has been depressed for three or four years, experts predict that the housing price will rise. It is estimated that most people will not believe it. Specifically, by 2035, the housing price will rise to 270000 per square meter in Beijing, 250000 in Shanghai, 300000 in Shenzhen, and about 150000 in other tier cities.
What is the logic of this prediction? Experts believe that there are three supporting factors.
First, the money was over issued. In the past, house prices rose because there was a lot of demand for houses. Everyone came to buy houses, and the supply fell short of demand, so the prices naturally rose.
However, the oversupply of money is also a major factor in the rise of house prices. For example, in the past, 100 yuan can buy many things, but now 100 yuan is too cheap. The same is true for houses. When the currency depreciates, you need to spend more money to buy a house.
Second, the cost of housing construction. Under inflation, the price of raw materials is rising, such as reinforced concrete, sand, cement, labor, etc. Everything needed for housing construction is rising. Developers can't sell at a loss.
Third, demographic factors. The birth rate of the population is indeed declining, but it will not continue to decline. Through policy adjustments, young people will be further encouraged to have children. An expert also said that 200 million rural people still need to buy houses in the city, which is also the driving force of rising house prices.
These views seem to be reasonable, but it is taken for granted. I believe that housing prices in some cities will rise in the future, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Young people will also flock to big cities, creating demand for housing and supporting the rise of housing prices.
But these cities are few after all, and what is the concept of four or five times the increase? At present, there are tens of millions of houses in large cities, and the increase of four or five times is 40 or 50 million. It is unrealistic to talk about house prices without talking about income.
It will be ten years before 2035. If the house price rises four or five times in ten years, how much will the income rise? Let's take a look at the historical data in the past. From 2008 to 2018, the housing price in some cities increased four or five times, but you think it is normal to earn 3000 yuan a month in 2008, and it is still normal to earn 3000 yuan a month in 2018.
In the future, the property market must be differentiated, just like wages. Good houses in big cities are still expensive, and houses in small cities may be valuable but not marketable.
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