(The original text was published on May 15 by Grant Hughes of the bleachers, and the content of the article does not represent the translator's point of view.)
The 76ers will use their salary space this summer to bring in at least one key player in the free agent market. It is also certain that Magic will also use their flexibility to target the target players. In addition, the Clippers will go through a tough off-season, and Paul George (player option) and Harden (free player) are likely to test the free player market. Pistons will again worry about how to use the resources at hand, and Nuggets will face the pressure of salary cap.
Apart from these reasonable predictions, everything else in the free agent market is still unknown. Grant Hughes from the bleachers made some bold predictions about the free agent market during the offseason this year The accuracy rate may not be very high, but there is a logical basis behind it.
Clay Thompson will return to the Warrior
According to some recent rumors, Clay has a clear and reasonable way to leave the Warrior. Shams, the name of The Athletic website, said in the podcast that "magic and Clay are interested in each other". Not long ago, Magic lost to the Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs in the Game 7. They have the ability to clear up nearly $65 million in salary space this summer (although the actual figure may be close to $35 million), and Magic obviously needs to add outside projection. Clay's athletic ability has declined, and he lost his starting position in the Warriors for a short time this season, but his total three-point shooting is still the fourth in the league, with a three-point shooting rate of 38.7%. Clay is obviously very suitable for Magic, a team with enough defense ability, but not enough space and scoring ability to support the offensive side.
If sentimental, Clay will return to the Warriors with a two-year contract synchronized with the contract renewal timeline of Curry and head coach Cole. Assuming that this is a two-year contract worth $40 million, the total value may increase to $45 million, including incentive provisions. This is less than the reported two-year $48 million contract that Clay refused during the offseason last year, and it is likely to be lower than the Magic's offer. Clay is a player with strong self-esteem. He may choose to accept a larger contract and role in order to prove that he can still play like a star.
In the end, Clay may realize that he can never go back, and his career no longer needs to prove anything. In addition, his total income in his career is up to 266 million dollars, and he is fully capable of giving up a larger contract because he wants to play in the same team until retirement.
Paul George will join 76 players
Clever people would think that Paul George would eventually stay at the Clippers with a four-year top salary contract, and rumors about the flirtation between him and the 76 people were just his means to raise the price with the Clippers. After all, George and Leonard were tied together when they joined the Clippers from the beginning, and Leonard has renewed his contract, which will last until the 2026-27 season. Although George and the Clippers failed to reach a contract renewal, it is sad that the Clippers would let him go when the new stadium is about to open next season.
However, George is not without the possibility of leaving. He has no confidence in Leonard's health throughout the regular season and the playoffs, mainly because Leonard has never played the whole season healthily since they joined hands in 2019. The following fact needs you to take some time to digest. Compared with Leonard's health, George will be more willing to trust Enbid's health. The latter never played more than 68 games in a single season in his career, which is enough to show how bad Leonard's attendance rate is.
In the final analysis, George has full reasons to believe that the combination of Enbid and Maxi has more room for improvement than that of Leonard and Harden. This has not taken into account the uncertainty of Harden when he becomes a free player. Compared with the Clippers, the 76ers have unmatched salary space flexibility, an MVP of the year of playing and a new star with a top salary contract. With such top talent and plasticity, George may not have to pick a major role in the team (he has never proved that he is competent for this role), and he can also win a contract with the team's top choice level. If he returns to the Clippers, George may face the same situation in the past few years.
Even if there is a certain logic basis, it is still bold to predict that George will leave the Clippers to join the 76ers. For a long time, the outside world believed that he and Leonard had a close relationship. In addition, George's hometown is in Southern California, so it would be surprising to leave his hometown to join the Eastern team.
Patrick Williams will go to Raptors
The Raptors' demand for tall, dual capable forwards is a good illustration of how quickly the NBA team's lineup changes. Not long ago, Raptors were carrying out the "2.06m plan" of no position test, during which they relied excessively on this type of players. Scotty Barnes and McDaniels are the only players of this kind who have contracts with the Raptors next season, which means that a large part of the salary space expected by the Raptors may be given to free players who can serve as the third and fourth positions in a flexible lineup.
In two of the four seasons of his career, Pavey has struggled with injuries. If Pavey, a restricted free agent, can get a large enough offer, the Bulls may give up the match. Bulls need to consider Drozan as a free player. The team tends to operate in the mode of "winning in the present", which may marginalize Pavey, the 22 year old former lottery player, and means that Raptors can use a competitive quotation to prise away the striker who has not performed well so far in his career.
With Queckley, Barnes and Barrett, the Raptors' core lineup is becoming younger, which is very suitable for Pavey, who is about to start the 23 year old season. Pavel is an offensive player who does not occupy the ball right. He has not shown the ability to create shooting opportunities independently, but he has low-key raised his career three-point shooting rate to 41%. If Pavel's production is higher, he focuses on becoming a threatening catcher and shooter, and can defend in multiple positions, then he will be the best choice for other players in their early 20s in the Raptors' partner team.
Malik Munk won a contract of nearly 100 million yuan
Monk has never been in such an advantageous position in his career. As one of the most threatening scorers in the free agent market, he is expected to make full use of his advantages to seek a big contract. This is bad news for the Kings. Unless they make major adjustments to the entire lineup to make room for salaries, they can only offer the sixth person at the elite level a four-year contract of $78 million.
Magic, eager for scoring ability, should be interested in Monk, and so might the desperate Pistons. The Raptors have a vacancy in the second position, and the Spurs should chase any player who can shoot and pass. All of these teams will risk spending a huge amount of money for a player who has played his best performance in the contract year, and this bidding will make Monk's worth far more than King can bear.
Monk is 26 years old this year, which is in the year of playing. For two consecutive seasons, he ranked among the top five in the best sixth person vote. This season's breakthrough assist rate is far ahead of the whole league (at least 6 breakthroughs per game). Monk will get a surprisingly generous contract, or at least it is unexpected for those who do not realize that he can get 21.3 points, 7.1 assists and 4.1 rebounds every 36 minutes this season. A smart team will know that Monk's substitute role has limited his production, but he is actually a high-quality starter and deserves a four-year contract of 90 million to 95 million dollars. It seems that perhaps the bolder prediction is that Munch will return to the king.
Tobias Harris and Fontaiquiao will get close salary in the next contract
Tobias Harris has a more successful career history, even in the season of poor performance, his performance has exceeded Fontaichio. This season is the second season after Fontaichio entered the league. In the first year of his career, he only started six games. Nevertheless, it is inevitable that Harris' transaction value is at the lowest point of his career. Harris, 31, went through a bad period after the All Star weekend. His real shooting percentage was only 52.9%, and his defense was also struggling. What's more, his salary next season will be as high as $39.3 million. Compared with the star level contract, Harris' mediocre performance is even worse.
Fontaiquiao is three years younger than Harris, and his three-point shooting rate this season is 40.1%. Perhaps more importantly, the restricted free agent played 724 minutes less than Harris, but made 76 more three-point shots. If we agree that Harris is now more like an auxiliary, scoring first role player than the second choice of the team in his last contract, Fontaiquiao can be said to be an expert on Harris's role today. Harris's career history and past salary will make it easier for the team to convince themselves that it is reasonable to spend money on him, which does not mean that Fontaiquiao will also sign a very large contract. However, with Harris' state declining, and the value of the young Fontaiquiao as an ace space player is obvious to all, the average annual salary of the two players' next contract will be closer than most people expected. Specifically, Harris' annual salary under his next contract will be only $3 million more than Fontaiquiao's.
Haltenstein will get more security salary than Claxton
Clarkston averaged 11.8 points and 9.9 rebounds and 2.1 blocked shots this season, surpassing center Haltenstein (averaging 7.8 points and 8.3 rebounds and 1.1 blocked shots), who also wants to become a free agent. He also has the ability of changing defense that many teams are eager to get from big players. However, in the open free agent market, Haltenstein's value will still exceed that of Clarkston, which is related to the quiet return of the traditional big men of the entire league. Versatility is still crucial, but the demand for the actual tonnage of large players is rising again. The MVP of the league in the past four seasons is a big player who does not change his defense. The center of the small team can not limit them at all, and the current trend is not limited to Enbid and Jokic. If you look at the teams that are still competing in the second round of the playoffs, you will find that they need Haltenstein who is 2.13m tall and weighs 113kg more than Clarkston, who is faster but thinner.
The Celts have Boerzingis and Hofford, the Timberwolves have Gobel and Downes, and the Lone Rangers also have Gafford and Lively. Even the big players with relatively fragile physique, such as Oklahoma City's versatile player Homgren and Cavaliers' Jarrett Allen, can dominate the restricted area and score in the low position. This is not to say that Clarkston has no advantages. He is younger and more mobile than Haltenstein, and his ability to block shots is also obvious to all. However, this big player of the Knicks was promoted to the starting position only after Mitchell Robinson (another traditional big player) was injured. He is better than Clarkston in terms of comprehensive high-level data, including basic positive and negative values, estimated positive and negative values, and player efficiency values. In addition, his performance is better in the face of those heavy loaded big players who return to the game.
The contract signed by Taius Jones will be higher than Russell's total salary
Russell has been selected as an All Star, and he is the first starter of the Lakers in the spotlight this season. Russell averaged 17.8 points and 5.8 assists in his career, and the basic data is better than most point guards in the free player market. However, Taius Jones in the market will still get a bigger contract than Russell. Although Russell is superior in fame and basic data, Jones's salary this season is 14 million dollars, less than 4 million dollars lower than Russell's salary. The market's valuation of them is closer than you think. In the offseason last year, Russell did not have many suitors, which is why he returned to the Lakers with a 1+1 contract totaling 36 million dollars.
This season, Taius Jones led the league in assists errors for the sixth consecutive season. He is better at playing the role of prudent organizer than most people. In contrast, Russell's talent and scoring ability are higher, but he is not the kind of player who can make people around him become better. In most cases, it is difficult for him to fit into the team. If Russell implements the player option and continues to play for the Lakers for one year before entering the free player market next year, it just shows that this prediction is correct. In theory, Russell's execution of the player option shows that our prediction is correct.
Jones is a plug and play player. Magic and other teams will regard him as a starter, while Pistons will also consider him a suitable veteran leader in the locker room. Clever teams would be happy to sign him with a three-year or four-year contract higher than the middle-class exception. At the same time, judging from Russell's two-year contract during the off-season last year, most teams are not keen on signing a long-term contract with him. As long as Russell did not attract more interest during the offseason this year than last year, Jones could prove this prediction correct with a four-year contract with a total price of more than 50 million dollars.
James Harden will only get a one-year guarantee contract
In an interview with Sam Amick, the name of The Athletic website, Harden said that he had chosen the player option to execute the last year of his contract with 76 people before applying for a transaction, which "is to go to an environment where he can win a big contract and also have the opportunity to compete for the championship". If the 10th All Star player thinks that he can get a contract with a longer term and higher salary than the 1+1 contract he signed with 76 people after giving up the 47 million player option in 2022, he will be disappointed.
Harden's last contract had a salary of 33 million yuan in the 2022-23 season, and this season is a player option of 35.7 million yuan. Although the potential total value of the contract he signed this summer may be close to the previous contract, it is hard to imagine that a team will provide a guarantee contract for a former star who will turn 35 before next season and is going downhill for more than one year, especially a player who has claimed to play until retirement in four different teams. In his past career, Harden has applied for many transactions and left the team with dissatisfaction, which makes it necessary to take too much risk to reach an agreement with him. For the Clippers or any other team interested in Harden, it is best to make decisions one season at a time, so as to avoid Harden becoming unhappy before the expiration of his contract or his condition slipping too fast.
Harden averaged 16.6 points, 8.5 assists and 5.1 rebounds this season, and the data shows that he is still more productive than most veterans who have played for 15 years. However, such data should be regarded as the upper limit of Harden's next season (the attendance rate of 72 games should also be regarded as the upper limit, which is his highest value since the 2017-18 season). In addition to his consistent unpredictability, Harden is not a player who can make the team feel comfortable signing a multi-year security contract.
Denver Nuggets will lose two rotation players
Pop will turn 31 soon after this year's trade deadline, which means that he may only have the last chance to get a high salary contract in the free agent market. Fortunately, he has the player options for next season. Pop will choose to jump out of the contract, which will immediately become a hot target in the market. He can sign a contract with a total price of nearly $100 million in four years. If Popp implements the player option of $15.4 million next season, the Nuggets will find that the total salary has exceeded the terrible second tier. If Reggie Jackson also implements the player option, or Nuggets bring back Chandler through the team option, the pain will be aggravated. If Denver can successfully defend its title, the management may be willing to face the punishment of high luxury tax, but Denver has never been willing to bear excessive luxury tax fines.
Popp is one of the best defensive role players in the league. He has won championships in two different teams. His elite level backcourt defense and reliable three-point shooting (shooting rate exceeds 39% for four consecutive years) make him feel no pressure in any team, which will raise the cost of keeping Popp to a level that Nuggets may not want to match. The Nuggets have been quietly preparing for this. They have five guards and flank players under 25 years old - Braun, Watson, Strauss, Pickett and Tyson. The salary of these players next season will not exceed 3 million dollars. This does not mean that the Denver Nuggets can be equally outstanding after these players replace Porter and Reggie Jackson, but it is clear that the Denver Nuggets have made contingency plans for this summer's situation.
D'Antoni Melton will get a contract of 60 million dollars
Melton has played only 38 games in the 76ers this season, and his back injury is worrying, but he will still win at least 60 million dollars in the free agent market. Melton, 25, has averaged double-digit points in the last three seasons. He is as plug and play as Pop, but his salary is not as high as Pop's. Considering that he is still 5 years younger than Pop, it can be said that it is very cost-effective to lock in the golden period of Melton's career with only 60 million dollars. It's easy to get a four-year middle-class special contract. The starting salary is $12.4 million, and the salary increases every year. The total price should be about $54 million. Our prediction is only a few million dollars higher than this figure, which should not be difficult to achieve.
Melton will have many suitors. Magic, Pistons, Raptors and Jazz are all likely to use salary space to sign with him. Thunder, Spurs and Hornets are also good candidates. They can all recruit Melton to their team at a price higher than that of the middle class. In addition, the excessive salary space of 76 people is another factor that has promoted the rise of Merton's status. Although the 76ers will spend some money on star players before signing their own free players back, the team pursuing Melton may feel that they need to give higher prices to prevent him from returning to the 76ers who should be the championship team. This is good news for Melton. After all, he has only earned less than 37 million dollars in his six-year career.
Original text: Grant Hughes
Compiled by: Li Taibai
