Since the beginning of the era of commercial housing in 1998, the heaviest rescue policy has come:
517 Contents of the New Deal
Comprehensively reduce the down payment ratio of house purchase
The minimum down payment ratio of commercial loans for the first set of housing is only 15%, and that for the second set of housing is not less than 25%.
It means that you can buy 2 million houses with 300000 yuan in hand.
Cancel interest rate floor
The lower limit of commercial loan interest rates for the first and second housing units in China will be abolished.
The first interest rate in Shanghai has dropped to 3.85% this year, and will only be lower in the future.
Comprehensively cut the interest rate of provident fund loans
The interest rate on provident fund loans was cut by 0.25 percentage points.
The interest rates of the first set of personal provident fund loans for less than five years (including five years) and more than five years are 2.35% and 2.85%, respectively, and the second set of personal provident fund loans are 2.775% and 3.325%.
This is the new policy of housing market stimulus issued by the Central Bank and the General Administration of Financial Supervision today, with unprecedented strength.
For the first time in history, there is no lower limit for the down payment ratio of 15% for the first house and the mortgage interest rate.
We can see the determination of this rescue.
When we look back on the property market several years later, the 517 New Deal will definitely leave a mark.
Of course, the first and second data are the lower limit, and the implementation level of each city will be flexible.
At least, the down payment proportion in Shanghai has not been determined to be adjusted, and the details shall be subject to the release in Shanghai.
The provident fund is subject to national unified adjustment.
01
Is this heavy policy useful?
Many group friends gave negative comments: nothing!
"Is it because the down payment is not enough that I don't buy a house now? I don't buy a house because I don't dare to borrow money. Is it meaningful for you to let me borrow more money?"?
I believe many people will think so.
Ring 2 is not so pessimistic. Any new policy has its effect, which more or less activates some purchasing power.
Some people dare not back the loan, and there must be people who give up buying a house when the down payment is not enough to meet the threshold.
Some of the latter groups are now released.
In addition, the policy itself is very important, and more important is the policy purpose.
It has been said before that the property market has a big bubble and the leverage ratio is too high. Why encourage leverage now?
Did you feel the determination behind it?
In fact, the leverage of China's property market is not that high. The average down payment rate in the United States is 13.8%, the lowest being 3%.
Japan can at least achieve zero down payment, and the average down payment ratio is only 12%.
The down payment in Shanghai is often more than 35%. In fact, the safety pad is already very high.
02
Whether there is a real estate opportunity or not, and whether the house price will rise or not, there are different opinions, and no one can convince anyone.
There are too many factors affecting housing prices. Everyone has grasped some factors and believes that they have grasped the truth.
In fact, there are major contradictions behind everything.
Why have house prices soared in the past 20 years? Some people say urbanization, some people say the contradiction between supply and demand, some people say the leverage ratio is high
In fact, the most important one is that everyone has money.
If everyone is as poor as 30 years ago, no matter how hard you try, the real estate will not be popular and the house price will not rise.
You have developed a luxury house with diamond inlaid facades, bought a house to give away drones, and bought a house to ensure that you can study in Tsinghua University. With only 200 yuan in your pocket, your house price will be reduced to the price I can afford.
In the 1980s, Chinese cultural relics were very cheap. Foreigners could not understand them. Chinese people had no money to buy them, so the price must be low.
Later, when Chinese people became rich, the price of cultural relics also came up. Most of the Chinese cultural relics auctioned internationally were bought by Chinese people.
contrary As long as people continue to have money, there will be constant demand for housing.
Everyone's purpose of buying a house is various. In the final analysis, there is one thing: I have money to buy a house.
No matter what stage you are at, what age you are, or what house you live in, you will buy a house without exception.
Two rooms for three rooms, three rooms for a villa, as long as you keep getting rich, you can keep finding reasons to buy a house.
There is essentially only one reason not to buy a house: insufficient money.
Nobody really likes renting, especially in China.
Shanghai has more than 200 plates, and the differentiation is very complicated
Expensive places are too cheap, cheap places are too expensive
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03
Do you have any money now? Yes, I have a lot of money.
Over the past few years, our resident deposits have reached new highs, reaching 145 trillion yuan at present.
More than double that of 2018. Why don't you buy a house with so much money?
Several major events since 2020 have completely destroyed everyone's confidence. All kinds of unexpected bad luck add up, and we have no luck.
So many people have the money to buy, because the current situation has changed temporarily.
Confidence is something that will be repaired sooner or later.
The huge amount of money saved without spending for several years has become the biggest risk in the market.
Since 2021, we have saved 54 trillion yuan.
When the money flows out, the market may take off again.
Everyone is just waiting for an opportunity.
Of course, the money will not flow equally to every city, every region and every building.
Even the money is not in everyone's hands.
We will gamble wherever the money flows.
04
Now you know why you are so determined to rescue the city?
What do you people want to do with so much money? Why not give it to support national construction?
Do you know what the figure of 145 trillion is? It accounts for more than 49% of our total deposits.
Half of the money is in your hands, and zf and enterprises do not have as much money as you.
Now some organizations are very short of money. In the principle of making money for whoever has money, who will not make your mind?
Whether you want to spend or participate in the real estate market is up to you.
But what Huan 2 wants to say is that there is a great risk of losing your money.
Everyone knows that paper money is waste paper. The essence of everyone's struggle for paper money is to fight for the dominance of future resources and labor.
Don't you want to save money because you don't want to work in the future, or find someone to support you when you are old?
If you don't work, you can only ask others to do it for you.
The essence of our saving becomes that we hope others will listen to us in the future.
This is a zero sum game.
The total amount of deposits is meaningless as a whole. Everyone saves money, which means that no one saves money. If everyone doesn't save money, they will all save money.
At this level, it is politically correct to let everyone spend money. It is meaningless for the whole society to save money. It is meaningful to make the economy and society operate more efficiently.
So you don't have to guess, 100% of Shanghai will further relax the purchase restrictions.
Any new policy on the property market is just a means to return the property market to what everyone wants.
As long as the goal has not been achieved and there are still tools, why not use them?
Do you know what we want the property market to look like now?
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