In the five key swing states, Biden fell behind in an all-round way. Biden gave Trump a "challenge"

Reporter | An Jing
Edit | Liu Haichuan

When Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate of the United States, went to the Manhattan court to punch in four days a week for the trial of the "hush money" case, US President Joseph Biden went on a canvass tour in major swing states.

In May 2024, the Biden campaign team announced that it would add 14 million dollars in advertising expenses that month, expand the number of employees to 500, and plan to open the 200th office at the end of the month. Biden's team invested 21.8 million dollars in advertising in March, while Trump only invested 3.7 million dollars.

However, Biden's heavy spending, Trump's repeated attacks by his former colleagues in the court, and even the eye-catching performance of the three major stock indexes of the United States failed to save Biden's support in the public opinion polls.

The poll released on Monday shows that Trump is fully ahead of Biden in five key swing states, including Pennsylvania and Georgia. The support rate of young voters and African American voters for Trump has risen, and Biden has only slightly exceeded Trump in Wisconsin.

In order to save the support rate and let voters see Trump's "danger" with their own eyes, Biden gave Trump a "challenge": to hold a one-on-one television debate three months in advance. Trump, who has always refused to participate in the Republican primary debate, has announced his acceptance.

The debate has not yet started, and the conversation between the two on social media is full of fire.

On May 15, Biden sent a video on the X platform, mocking Trump for twice becoming his defeated opponent in the debate of the 2020 presidential election.

Biden sent a video mocking Trump as his own defeated player twice in the debate of the 2020 presidential election. Photo source: X

Biden said that Trump has never participated in the debate since his defeat. "Now he seems to want to argue with me again, which makes me happy, man. I am even willing to argue twice." After challenging, Biden continued to ridicule Trump, saying that Trump might be free to participate in the debate on Wednesday.

Trump is participating in the trial of the "hush money" case, and the judge requires him to appear in court on four working days every week except Wednesday. Biden specifically chose to fight Trump on Wednesday. The new campaign T-shirt of Biden's campaign team also has the slogan "Free every Wednesday".

Shortly after Biden posted the video, Trump sent multiple messages on his social media, True Social. He accepted Biden's challenge and announced that the first debate with Biden will be held on CNN on June 27, and the second debate will be held on ABC on September 10.

When responding to the war, Trump used his favorite capital letters and exclamation points to attack "cheat Biden" as the worst president in American history, and asked him to explain his "destructive" border policy, "absurd" electric car plan, "overwhelming" inflation and "weak" foreign policy to Americans in the debate.

Trump's "Responding" photo source: Truth Social

Trump said that he intended to debate with Biden several times and was ready to hold the third debate on Fox TV on October 2. But the Biden campaign then vetoed the third debate.

The original duel between Trump and Biden scheduled by the US Presidential Election Debate Committee was in September and October. However, the Biden campaign team requested that the first debate be held after the G-7 Summit in June, when Trump's "hush money" case is expected to end. The verdict of this case can be a tool to attack Trump.

The second debate election was held in September in consideration of the early voting of the presidential election. Early voting in some states will begin in September. In recent years, the number of voters participating in early voting has increased. More than 94 million voters participated in the early voting in the US general election in 2020, twice as many as in 2016.

During the US general election in 2020, Biden and Trump held two debates in September and October, and the third one was canceled because Trump was infected with the new crown.

Their first debate in history turned into a farce. Biden and Trump robbed each other and made personal attacks. Biden attacked Trump as a clown and racist, while Trump attacked Biden's family. The host repeatedly tried to maintain order, but failed. Biden once directly asked Trump to shut up.

This debate was rated by the American media as the worst presidential election debate in the United States, "an insult to the audience". After the debate, Trump's support rate fell for a while.

By the second debate, the two talents had kept a certain degree of restraint and mentioned the economic, COVID-19 epidemic, immigration and other policy contents. However, the two sides still have a strong gunpowder smell, and attack each other relentlessly. In order to prevent the scene from getting out of control again, the microphones of both people are muted when the other side speaks alone.

In order to avoid a repeat of the chaos in 2020, the Biden campaign team requires that the debate be conducted without audience and that the microphone be turned off when the other side speaks alone. CNN has confirmed that only Biden, Trump and two moderators participated in the debate in June, without audience.

Biden's decision to advance the debate with Trump a full three months is closely related to his poor performance in the polls.

On Monday, a joint poll by the New York Times, Siena College and the Philadelphia Inquirer showed that among the six key swing states - Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania, Biden led Trump with 47% of the support of Wisconsin, 45% of the first, and Trump dominated the other five states.

Trump leads Biden in support in five key swing states

The swing state is a state with equal strength between the two parties in the US general election. It may support the Democratic presidential candidate or the Republican candidate, so it has become a key battlefield for the two parties to compete. In the 2020 general election, Biden won six states including Michigan. In the 2016 presidential election, Trump won five states except Nevada.

Monday's poll shows that Trump's lead over Biden in Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania is in single digits, but in Georgia and Nevada, Trump's lead over Biden is up to 10 points, and Nevada's lead is up to 12 points. Trump is far ahead in Nevada, thanks to the fact that Hispanic voters and 18-29 year old voters support him more than Biden.

In all six states participating in the survey, Trump has won the support of more young voters, 46% of 18-29 year old voters support Trump, more than Biden's 43%. Even among African American voters, the support rate for Trump reached 23%. Investigators pointed out that this proportion is the highest support rate for Republican presidential candidates from African American voters since the Civil Rights Act of 1964 came into force.

Economy, immigration, the right to abortion, inflation and foreign policy are the top five issues of concern to voters in the six states. On the most critical economic issue, most voters believe Trump will do better than Biden.

The Palestinian Israeli conflict has not become the main issue affecting the choice of voters. However, among the Middle East, North Africa and Muslim voters, Trump has a 57% approval rate, which is significantly higher than Biden's 25%. 70% of these voters listed the U.S. policy in the Palestinian Israeli conflict as their main consideration. In the 2020 election, most of these voters are Biden supporters.

Trump welcomed the poll result and sent the state's support rate with the victory gesture to social media. Jeff Galin, an expert in the polls of Biden's campaign team, said that there was a big gap between different polls, and other polls showed that Biden's support rate was increasing.

Jialin believes that it is still early to vote in the general election, and many voters have not seriously considered the election or made a decision, as reflected in Monday's poll.

According to the laws of the past American elections, changes after June will have a significant impact on the election voting. The latest data released by the US Labor Department on Wednesday showed that the US consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% month on month in April, up 3.4% year on year, and the increase was lower than that in March.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI rose 0.3% month on month in April, 3.6% year-on-year, the smallest increase since April 2021. Although the current inflation rate is still higher than the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, before the US general election in November, if inflation drops significantly and prices fall, voters' choices may change again.