In the last 1km, 2000 Uzbek troops failed to break through the encirclement, and the Russian army expanded the encirclement, and did not stop until it was completely destroyed

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is likely to take a major turn in the next few months, because from the recent performance of Ukrainian troops on the Kharkov battlefield, the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine is approaching the critical point of major changes.

(Uzbek UAV team was suppressed by Russian electronic warfare on a large scale)

In the early morning of May 16 local time, the Russian army launched a pincer attack from the east, west and north of Volchangsk, breaking through the loose defense line constructed by the 57th Airborne Brigade, border defense forces and the "Russian Volunteer Army", successfully occupying the main urban area in the north of the city, and only 1 to 1.5 kilometers from the core area in the south of the city. The 2000 Urumqi troops, separated by the Vafqa River in the north of the city, tried to break through the high-rise buildings in the north of the city for many times, but these attempts ended in failure. The Urumqi troops had to flee in all directions, while the Russian army followed the trend to expand the encirclement circle. Some commandos and infiltration teams have successfully crossed the river into the south of the city.

(It's too late for the Ukrainian army to break through the siege)

It is worth noting that, although the number of Ukrainian troops in the direction of Kharkov has become more and more, the deployment of a battalion level force from each brigade is a drop in the bucket. This kind of reinforcement has put the Ukrainian army at a more obvious disadvantage in terms of defense force, because the more troops from different units in the front line, the greater the pressure on command.

(Uzbek army reinforcements)

It should be noted that the Zerensky authorities even sent all paramilitary forces, such as the Ukrainian State Border Protection Agency and the National Civil Police Guard, to the Kharkov front with "one head", which is enough to illustrate that the Ukrainian army has encountered great difficulties in terms of weapons and equipment, ammunition and drugs, and staffing, Although it cannot be said that the strength of the Ukrainian army is approaching the term of "exhaustion", considering that the Russian army is still launching ground offensives of different scales on several fronts in the direction of Zaporozhe and Donetsk, the Ukrainian army actually has no more strategic reserves to use, "exhausted, leaking everywhere, frightened" It is a true portrayal of the current Ukrainian army.

From the fact that the Russian army launched the ground attack in the direction of Kharkov again, we can draw the following conclusions:

First of all, the military input of the Russian army in the front line of the Russian Ukrainian conflict has undergone tremendous changes. At the beginning of the "special military operation" launched by the Russian army against Ukraine in 2022, the total military strength of the Russian army in the front line is only 100000 to 120000 people. At that time, in order to prevent NATO countries from participating in the Russian Ukrainian war at any time, including the 80000 troops of the former Western Military Region stationed in Belarus and Leningrad, they did not enter the conflict battlefield between Russia and Ukraine. On the whole, the Russian military strength is far from enough to support the subsequent large-scale ground war and war of attrition.

(Front Hospital of Urumqi Army)

At this time, the Russian army timely chose to "break the tail for survival", and then made a large-scale retreat in the direction of Kherson and Kharkov, with the purpose of "exchanging space for time". By the end of 2023, with the start of local mobilization and large-scale conscription of the Russian army, the number of troops participating in "special military operations" has reached an unprecedented 650000. At the same time, the number of volunteer camps and mercenary troops behind the Russian army has reached 150000, and is increasing at the scale of 20000 to 30000 per month. In just one year, Russia, In terms of the comparison of forces, it has gradually begun to gain overwhelming advantages.

This huge advantage in military strength is not only reflected in Russia's strong comprehensive national strength, but also based on the huge losses of Ukraine's military. Based on the data analysis of western media and Russia, the total loss of the Ukrainian army has reached one million by May 2024, of which about 450000 to 550000 people were killed in battle, and 500000 to 600000 people were seriously injured or disabled and could not return to the battlefield.

(Uzbek Army UAV Team)

In an interview with western media at the end of 2023, former commander in chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, Zaluzhny, said that the minimum monthly mobilization number that the Ukrainian army can accept is 20000, that is, the Ukrainian army needs to add at least 240000 to 300000 people every year to roughly ensure that there are enough troops in the battle line. However, the Ukrainian army in the direction of Kharkov is now "unavailable" in a short time What is the problem?

According to the high intensity of the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the monthly loss of the Ukrainian army on the front line of the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine is about 20000 to 25000 people. The monthly recruitment limit mentioned by Zaluri is only barely enough, and the remaining vacancies are mainly composed of mercenaries from Poland, Germany, Georgia and France.

(Urumqi Army Rear Hospital)

However, the crux of the problem is that it is increasingly difficult for the Ukrainian army to continue to maintain this number of troops. On the whole, in the Russian Ukrainian conflict, the exchange ratio of the two sides' units on the battlefield is roughly the same, but there are many differences between the two sides' battlefield rescue systems and logistics supply systems.

A large number of casualties of the Urumqi army are mainly concentrated in the wounded who cannot be treated in time and in the temporary hospitals in the rear, which leads to the ratio of death and injury of the Urumqi army as high as 1:2, directly opening the gap with the ratio of 1:4 of the Russian army. That is to say, the gap between the strength loss of the Ukrainian and Russian armies is as high as 5:1 or 6:1. In view of the failure of many counter offensive operations since last summer, the experienced veterans in the Ukrainian army have been exhausted. The personnel renewal frequency of most elite troops has soared, and some infantry battalions have even been updated four to five times.

(Ukrainian soldier)

What's more deadly is that as the Ukrainian army's air defense firepower was heavily hunted by Russian drones and air and space forces, the few remaining Ukrainian air defense forces could not provide protection for the front line. The Russian air and space forces wantonly attacked the Ukrainian army on the battlefield, further increasing the losses of the Ukrainian army. Since March this year, the average daily loss of the Ukrainian army was between 1000 and 1200 people, The loss of 30000 people per month has gradually stretched the strength of the Ukrainian army.

At the joint high-level meeting of the Russian army in early May, former Russian defense minister Shoigu said that between the beginning of 2024 and early May, the Ukrainian army had lost 110000 people, and the average daily casualties in April exceeded 1000. Some analysts believe that, as this disproportionate war of attrition continues, by the end of 2024, the total number of Russian troops on the front line of the Russian Ukrainian conflict will reach 800000-850000, while the total number of Ukrainian troops will be reduced to less than 500000, and the Russian army will be in an overwhelming position.

Therefore, the Russian army's opening up of new battlefields in Kharkov and Sumy regions is extremely fatal for Ukraine, which is equivalent to "accelerating the bleeding" of the already weak Ukrainian military mobilization system. If the Zerensky authorities cannot reverse this "disproportionate consumption" in time, its future prospects will be very bleak.