As early as 2023, the CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies), an American think tank, conducted a war game, which calculated the scene after the full-scale war between China and the United States.
According to CSIS's war game, if the United States wants to defeat China in the war, it needs a lot of long-range missiles to hit China's military force and use a group of bombers to bomb China in an all-round way.
American bombing
After the exposure of the war game play, it once triggered domestic discussions in China.
At a time when the international situation is precarious, the United States has made such a move with a strong sense of threat, and people will naturally think that the United States is really preparing for war with China.
U.S. NSC-68 Document Framework
In fact, as for the current Sino US relations, Kissinger When I came to China for the last time in my life "China and the United States are standing on the edge of the cliff."
Kissinger
The reason for this phenomenon is that the United States has maintained the NSC-68 document framework until the 21st century.
NSC-68 is a document signed by the United States during the Korean War. Before the outbreak of the Korean War, the strategic deployment of the United States was not as widespread as it is now.
At that time, the United States only wanted to maintain its control over Europe. For East Asia, it considered it a "marginal world".
So before the Korean War, the strategic deployment of the United States was to compete with the Soviet Union for control of Europe, and let the Korean Peninsula maintain the status quo.
However, after the Korean War broke out, the United States soon became popular with the "domino theory", that is, after an East Asian country broke out a socialist movement and became a socialist country, the countries around it will soon be affected by it and become socialist countries.
The United States participated in the Korean War
Therefore, according to the "domino theory", the socialism of an East Asian country means the socialism of the whole Asia Pacific region in the future, and the United States will soon lose control of the Asia Pacific region.
therefore The United States signed NSC-68 in 1950, We should meet all challenges from the socialist camp and hold down the possible socialisation of each country.
NSC-68 has a great impact on the United States, which means that The United States shifted from "primary and secondary differences" to global strategic deployment.
Before the Korean War, the United States only wanted to keep Europe, and took a laissez faire attitude towards the Asia Pacific region.
In other words, the United States does not want to invest too much resources in the Asia Pacific region. When necessary, Asia Pacific regions like Japan and South Korea can give up.
but After the signing of NSC-68, the United States must maintain all overseas regions under its control, and the United States will invest a lot of resources to maintain these regions.
Vietnam war
Then, under the influence of NSC-68, the United States had the Vietnam War, the Middle East anti-terrorism war 20 years after the 21st century, and the current Sino US conflict.
Until now, the United States has maintained the "NSC-68 Document Framework".
NSC-68 Document Framework and Taiwan Issue
This situation is particularly evident on the issue of Taiwan.
For the United States, To maintain its use of the Taiwan authorities and the "Taiwan independence" forces will not only do no good to the control of Taiwan, China, but also need to invest considerable resources and bear huge risks.
Concept Map of Taiwan Issue
Based on this, the United States today has simply changed its way of intervening in the Taiwan issue of China, that is, constantly selling arms to Taiwan, strengthening the armed forces on the island, and actively promoting the "Taiwan independence" forces to split the two sides.
However, whether it is to control Taiwan directly with the help of "Taiwan independence" forces or to sell arms to Taiwan and instigate the Taiwan authorities to seek independence, it is an act that touches the bottom line of China.
So Kissinger would say that "China and the United States are standing on the edge of a cliff". In Kissinger's view, the worst thing about the Sino US conflict is that there is no mechanism to cover the bottom between China and the United States.
For example, the contradiction between the United States and North Korea is covered by China.
When the conflict between the United States and North Korea is too big to be reversed and the United States and North Korea may go to war, China will come out to "persuade".
China can appease the feelings of North Korea, ease the contradiction between the United States and North Korea, and avoid war between the two sides through diplomacy or other channels.
So even if the conflict between North Korea and the United States is even greater, as long as China does not want to go to war, the war between North Korea and the United States will probably not break out.
But there is no such mechanism between China and the United States. China and the United States are the two largest countries in the world, If these two countries fight, who in the world can persuade them to fight?
So when either China or the United States decides to go to war, war is inevitable.
Sino US War Concept Map
This situation makes the Taiwan issue of China particularly prominent.
The Taiwan issue is China's bottom line. No matter what price will be paid, China will certainly not give in on the Taiwan issue.
but The United States maintains its "NSC-68 Document Framework", and will stop China's reunification even at war.
Then when there are major changes in the Taiwan issue, it may lead to a direct war between China and the United States.
Sino US War Concept Map
China's response
In response to the strategic deployment of the United States, China's approach is to avoid the sharp edges on the one hand and "you hit you, I hit me" on the other.
For the former, we can find that China's performance on the Taiwan issue is relatively passive It is basically because the United States has made any movement on the issue of Taiwan that the Chinese side reacts.
This is because if China chooses to take the initiative in this matter, it is very easy to catch the flaws, thus causing greater losses.
The Taiwan issue involves a lot of people, and a little carelessness is likely to lead to war
Therefore, the Chinese mainland avoids its sharp edges. On the one hand, "forging iron requires hard work", it constantly strengthens military construction. On the other hand, through diplomatic means, it makes countries more inclined to China's side than to the United States on the Taiwan issue.
For the latter, The United States is in trouble on the Taiwan issue of China, and China is confronting the United States on other strategic deployments of the United States.
For example, to promote the settlement of trade in local currency with South America and dig the corner of the hegemony of the US dollar; Another example is the insistence on promoting the two state solution on the Israeli issue, and setting Israel and the United States on fire.
1947 Palestinian partition plan
In this way, the United States can understand that it should be careful to ignite the flames in its disorderly handling of the Taiwan issue, so as to impose certain restrictions on the United States.
reference material:
【1】 CCTV · Sun Moon Tan Tian | Enthusiastic in Taiwan's army push, the Ecstasy in Meitai Hulu is used to lead the war against Taiwan
【2】 Global Network · Kissinger Says China US Relations Are Standing on the "Cliff", Foreign Ministry Responds
