The election of local county mayors in Taiwan ended, the KMT won, the DPP lost, and Tsai Ing wen resigned

The election of local county mayors in Taiwan is coming to an end. This election is not only a vote of no confidence in the DPP Tsai Ing wen, but also the biggest opportunity for the KMT to turn over. From the current point of view, the Kuomintang can be said to have won the victory, and the Democratic Progressive Party returned from defeat. However, the Kuomintang's advantage was not as great as expected, and the final result should be that both sides have achieved something. Before the election, the Kuomintang held the governing power of 14 counties and cities. The Democratic Progressive Party had seven counties and cities in charge, and there was a Taipei city headed by Ke Wenzhe. As far as the current situation is concerned, even if the Kuomintang can win the mayor election in Chiayi next month, it can only maintain the position of 14 county mayors. The Democratic Progressive Party is even worse. The original seven seat county mayors will be reduced to five seats. Even with Chen Fuhai of Jinmen County secretly supported by the DPP, the territory of the DPP has shrunk by one seat, and Tsai Ing wen has resigned as the DPP chairman.

The Kuomintang won

This year's election is just a matter of joys and sorrows, and Zhu Lilun is hardly the last big winner. In my opinion, there are two real winners. One is Hou Youyi, mayor of Xinbei, who defeated his opponent by 400000 votes. The other is the mainland, which stands aside and looks on coldly. In this election, the maturity of the mainland in cross-strait relations has been significantly improved, and there has been flexible space for handling cross-strait issues. We still remember that the mainland actively supported the candidates of the Kuomintang in the Taiwan island elections in 2018 and 2020. Solidarity with the Kuomintang represented by Han Guoyu has become a prominent academic, but this gives the DPP room to operate. They began to fight against China and protect Taiwan. They concocted a series of events focusing on the "Wang Liqiang spy case", which stirred up the public's aversion to the mainland, and also destroyed the KMT's election in 2020. Han Guoyu, the subsequent mayor of Kaohsiung, was deposed, and the KMT was annihilated in the "four major referendums" in 2021, which can be regarded as derivatives of that year.

Han Guoyu

This year, the mainland kept a low profile and deliberately avoided relevant issues. Even Xie Hanbing, a Taiwan media person who often appears on the mainland's political talk shows, said frankly:“ The mainland is deliberately not talking about elections to avoid being manipulated by the Democratic Progressive Party 。” From the current situation, our choice is beneficial to the Kuomintang in the island. Since this year's election of local county mayors sounded the clarion call, the Kuomintang has taken the initiative and swept away the haze of previous failures. In a series of events, such as exposing the plagiarism case of Lin Zhijian, the mayor of Hsinchu, a member of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), collecting money on both sides of the Taiwan Straits of Zheng Yunpeng, the candidate for mayor of Taoyuan, and Zhou Yukou, the flank of the DPP, framing the case of Jiang Wan'an, the candidate for mayor of Taipei, the Kuomintang has shown great fighting power. I can't confirm whether there is any secret help from the mainland. However, the photocopy of the application form that revealed that Zheng Yunpeng had applied for a technology project in the mainland to earn a lot of RMB should be kept in the mainland's science and technology department, and its appearance seems to explain some problems.

Xie Hanbing

The Democratic Progressive Party also wants to fight against China and Taiwan again this year, but it seems to have hit the air and its strength has been dissolved. In the final analysis, because the mainland is no longer easily involved in the island elections, the Democratic Progressive Party has no focus on taking advantage of the problem. At the same time, we can also see that the mainland's military aircraft and warships do not have a day off. At most, there are even dozens of aircraft cruising over the Taiwan Strait. Politically, he looks like a fire in the eye and works in secret. In military affairs, we have opened up and closed up greatly, which has shaken the country. A series of actions on the mainland can be described as relaxation, grace and power. We have begun to take the initiative between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits, which is the most valuable change. We also need to understand that the KMT's victory has limited help for cross-strait relations, and placing hope on the KMT is tantamount to profiting from the tiger. We have only resorted to their hands to repair the Democratic Progressive Party, and it is up to us to achieve reunification.

Military aircraft cruise non-stop

When we turn our attention back to Taiwan, I think the overall social atmosphere in the island will not change significantly after this election. Because this election can be said to be the coldest election for the county mayor in the past decade, there was neither Lian Shengwen's shooting in 2014, Ke Wenzhe's "Ke Fan Cyclone", nor Han Guoyu's feat of winning the Democratic Progressive Party's headquarters in Kaohsiung in 2018. The hardcore fans of the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party return to their own standard, and the basic plate is the largest core pillar force. Before the election, the Kuomintang Chairman Zhu Lilun promised to "win 16 county mayors and more than half of the 'six metropolises' (Taipei, Xinbei, Taoyuan, Taichung, Kaohsiung, Tainan)". Now it seems that this commitment is only half completed. Compared with the momentum of overwhelming victory before the election, the Kuomintang can be said to have mixed feelings after the election.

Hou Youyi became a big winner

The Kuomintang in the island and the Republican Party in the United States both encountered similar problems in this year's elections, and the final results were far from optimistic as expected. But just as the governor of Florida in the United States has become the new "popularity king" of the Republican Party by beating his opponent in the local area, Hou Youyi in Taiwan has also beaten his opponent by more than 400000 votes, setting a new record for the Kuomintang in the New North. The popularity after the election is overwhelming. Although the Kuomintang led by Zhu Lilun won the election, it also lost Miaoli County, Jinmen County, Penghu County and other places. Miaoli County, in particular, lost the ruling power of the Kuomintang because of Zhu Lilun's arrogance. Zhong Dongjin, the winner, was also the Kuomintang originally. It was because he had a conflict with the senior leadership of the Kuomintang led by Zhu Lilun that he chose to leave the Kuomintang and run for election. Therefore, Zhu Lilun is gradually losing the qualification to compete with Hou Youyi to participate in the leadership of Taiwan in 2024. In addition, Zhao Shaokang, who is eyeing the leadership of Taiwan, is marginalized because he did not contribute much in this election.

Zhu Lilun

The Kuomintang has always been an "insider". If Zhu Lilun, Zhao Shaokang and others are determined to suppress Hou Youyi, then the Kuomintang will naturally split, and the Democratic Progressive Party will still benefit in the end 。 Tsai Ing wen, chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), announced to resign as soon as the election failed. If the DPP inadvertently enters the "Lai Ching de era". Lai Qingde was originally a heavy player in the Democratic Progressive Party, called "Lai Shen". When he was the mayor of Tainan, he had enjoyed the "support" of Taiwan independence forces for a long time. The Democratic Progressive Party sent Lai Qingde, the strongest internal leader, to participate in the election of the leaders of Taiwan in 2024. Then the Kuomintang has no splitting capital, and only Hou Youyi can compete with Lai Qingde with sufficient strength. If Hou Youyi does not take the initiative, the Kuomintang will still lose the 2024 general election.

Cai Yingwen Resigns as Chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party

At the same time, this election also revealed several important social phenomena. First, the forces supporting the reunification of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits have almost disappeared from the political arena on the island. Among the people sent by the New Party, which considered itself as a unified party, only Hou Hanting of Taipei City succeeded in re-election, and the New Party also achieved the worst result since its founding, leaving only one member of the Taipei City Council. This shows that although the public opinion in the island has taught the DPP a lesson with the votes and disliked the DPP from the heart, it may not support cross-strait reunification. Secondly, although the DPP failed in this election, we must see that this failure is due to its internal struggle. Qiu Yiren and other generations who are most good at elections in the DPP are left idle by Tsai Ing wen and her children because they belong to the same camp as Lai Qingde. It can be said that this failure is only the failure of Tsai Ing wen's faction, not the overall defeat. Once Lai Qingde is in power, the DPP still has strong strength to create cross-strait conflicts, so we must be more careful.