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abstract
1. The performance of building materials is under pressure due to the downturn of real estate in 2023. However, in the second half of the year, the implementation of special bonds will drive the start of infrastructure projects, and the implementation of the State Council's Action Plan for Promoting Large scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade in may be expected to drive the demand for building materials. At present, the institutional position and valuation of the building materials sector are at a low level, which can be kept under certain concern. With the favorable policies of real estate or the periodic recovery of demand, there may be a periodic rebound. At this stage, the growth of consumer building materials is relatively high, and the valuation level is cost-effective. Interested investors can use building materials ETF (159745) to grasp the rebound opportunity of building materials.
2. In the future, the general direction of overseas Fed easing will remain unchanged, and the improvement of liquidity will be beneficial to the valuation end of Hong Kong stocks and the repair of risk premium. After nearly three years of adjustment, the valuation of Hong Kong shares is still at a historical low after the recovery, with a certain investment performance price ratio. Recently, the RMB exchange rate is relatively tough, and the cost performance of China's assets is prominent; In addition, the domestic economy shows signs of marginal recovery, which may lead to the recovery of the profits of Hong Kong shares, we can pay due attention to Hong Kong Stock Connect 50ETF (159712), Hong Kong Stock SOE ETF (159519), including Hong Kong Stock Technology ETF (513020).
3. The pace of the global central bank's gold purchase is still continuing. The global trend of "de dollarization" makes gold expected to become a new round of pricing anchor. In the medium and long term, gold is still expected to be able to take action. If there is a pullback, it may consider the bargain hunting layout of gold fund ETF (518800). Equity assets may be more flexible than commodity gold during the upward period, and small partners with higher risk appetite can also focus on gold stock ETF (517400).
4. In recent years, China's AI chip industry has received unprecedented attention and support. At the same time, AI continues to evolve towards the terminal side, and global manufacturers accelerate AI application and big model iteration, which will continue to enable the long-term development of many technology enterprises in the AI field. At present, the semiconductor chip industry is at the stage of cyclical bottoming out and recovery, and domestic substitution under the influence of overseas sanctions is still the general trend. The boom is rising with the promotion of domestic substitution. Interested investors can focus on the investment opportunities of semiconductor equipment ETF (159516), chip ETF (512760), and integrated circuit ETF (159546).
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Today's A-share market fell in shock and volume continued to shrink. As of the closing, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 0.82%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index fell 0.88%, and the GEM Index fell 0.9%. The turnover of the two markets was 764.02 billion yuan, down about 60 billion yuan from yesterday. On the market side, the real estate sector rose sharply against the trend, while the household appliances sector showed strong performance. In terms of decline, the securities sector led the decline, while the pharmaceutical, chip, aquaculture and other sectors performed poorly.
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Recently, the real estate policy has continued and the real estate chain has soared. Building materials rose against the trend today, and building materials ETF (159745) rose 1.86%.
Source: Wind
On the news side, the real estate industry is again welcoming good news. On May 14, Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Planning and Natural Resources disclosed that the 2024 version of Shenzhen Architectural Design Rules will be officially released in the near future. The revised contents include the reduction of the shared area of residential buildings, the effective improvement of the housing acquisition rate, and the 150 meter high limit for residential buildings and dormitories.
On May 10, the People's Bank of China said that "we should support financial institutions in accordance with the principle of marketization and rule of law, keep the supply of money and credit in line with the effective financing needs of high-quality development of the real economy, guide the rational growth and balanced delivery of loans, enhance the stability and sustainability of loan growth, and ensure that social financing scale and money supply match the expected goals of economic growth and price level. We will make greater efforts to revitalize existing financial resources, pay close attention to the idling of capital deposits, promote the improvement of capital use efficiency, and provide better support for high-quality economic development. "
On April 30, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting and proposed that "we should continue to adhere to the city specific policies, compact the responsibilities of local governments, real estate enterprises, and financial institutions, and earnestly do a good job in ensuring the delivery of housing to protect the legitimate rights and interests of property buyers. In combination with the new changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market and the new expectations of the people for high-quality housing, we should make an overall study of the policies and measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize the incremental housing, pay close attention to the construction of a new model of real estate development, and promote the high-quality development of real estate. " The follow-up demand side support policies for local real estate infrastructure may accelerate. In addition, key meetings such as the Third Plenary Session of the Twentieth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held soon, which may boost market risk appetite.
The building materials sector is under pressure due to the downturn of real estate in 2023, and the performance period may bring some fluctuation risks; However, in the second half of the year, the implementation of special bonds will drive the start of infrastructure projects, and the implementation of the State Council's Action Plan for Promoting Large scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade in may be expected to drive the demand for building materials. At present, the institutional position and valuation of the building materials sector are at a low level, which can maintain certain attention. With the favorable policies of real estate or the periodic recovery of demand, there may be a periodic rebound. Interested investors can take advantage of the building materials ETF (159745) to grasp the rebound opportunities of the building materials sector.
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Hong Kong shares have rebounded strongly recently, with the bottom of Hong Kong Stock Connect 50ETF (159712) rebounding by more than 17%.
The recent performance of Hong Kong shares has been outstanding for the following reasons: 1) The recent sharp depreciation of Asian currencies such as the yen, the relatively stable exchange rate of the RMB, and the prominent value of China's assets. Under the strong US dollar exchange rate, overseas funds were allocated to Hong Kong stocks that had been continuously adjusted and had low valuations. 2) In April, the CSRC issued five measures for cooperation in the capital market with Hong Kong, which resulted in frequent favorable policies towards Hong Kong and improved the liquidity of Hong Kong shares. 3) Recently, there have been frequent interactions between China, the United States and Europe. General Secretary Xi visited France on May 5. Previously, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen and German Prime Minister Schultz visited China successively. Foreign investors' concerns about China US relations have eased. 4) In terms of fundamentals, overseas liquidity tends to loosen+domestic economic fundamentals improve, and the numerator and denominator end of Hong Kong shares are subject to double advantages.
In the future, the general direction of overseas Fed easing will remain unchanged, and the improvement of liquidity will be beneficial to the valuation end of Hong Kong stocks and the repair of risk premium. After nearly three years of adjustment, the valuation of Hong Kong shares is still at a historical low after the recovery, with a certain investment performance price ratio. Recently, the RMB exchange rate is relatively tough, and the cost performance of China's assets is prominent; In addition, the domestic economy shows signs of marginal recovery, which may lead to the recovery of the profits of Hong Kong shares, we can pay due attention to Hong Kong Stock Connect 50ETF (159712), Hong Kong Stock SOE ETF (159519), including Hong Kong Stock Technology ETF (513020). (See details)
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After the early correction of gold, there was a slight rebound in the near future. The gold fund ETF (518800) rose 0.8%, and the gold stock ETF (517400) rose 0.77%. In the short term, gold has risen a lot before. To some extent, it is difficult to directly start the next wave of rising market in the short term. However, in the medium term, the Federal Reserve is still expected to start cutting interest rates within the year, and the positive trend of the composition of gold price will remain unchanged due to the alternating downward trend of general easing and economic rolling.
In terms of risk factors, the liquidity risk of the U.S. financial system increases under the continuous high interest rate environment in the United States, the recent interest rate increase in Japan and the withdrawal from YCC, and the crisis may gradually emerge. On the other hand, recent geopolitical risk events have occurred frequently, the situation in the Red Sea continues to be tense, and the market risk aversion continues to rise. In addition to the 2024 global multi regional leadership election, the overall market uncertainty may rise, and the risk aversion demand will also provide some medium-term support for the gold price.
The pace of the global central bank's gold purchase is still continuing. The global trend of "de dollarization" makes gold expected to become a new round of pricing anchor. In the medium and long term, gold is still expected to be able to take action. If there is a pullback, it may consider the bargain hunting layout of gold fund ETF (518800). Equity assets may be more flexible than commodity gold during the upward period, and small partners with higher risk appetite can also focus on gold stock ETF (517400).
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Chip ETF (512760) had a recent correction and closed down 1.54% today. On the news side, Apple released a new iPad Pro with M4 chip last week. The M4 chip is built with the second generation 3nm process technology, adopts SoC architecture, and is equipped with a new central processor with up to 10 cores, with a maximum computing speed of 38 trillion times per second. On this Wednesday local time, Google held the 2024 Google I/O Conference, which brought a number of new products enabled by large models.
According to the latest data from the American Semiconductor Industry Association, the global semiconductor sales in the first quarter of 2024 will be 137.7 billion US dollars, up 15.2% year on year and down 5.7% month on month. It is expected that the chip market will continue to grow in the year and the annual growth rate may reach double digits.
Source: Wind, American Semiconductor Industry Association
In recent years, China's AI chip industry has received unprecedented attention and support, and the country has issued a number of policies such as the Guidelines for the Construction of the National Integrated Government Big Data System to help the development of the AI chip industry. At the same time, AI continues to evolve towards the terminal side. According to IDC data released on Lenovo's official website, Lenovo's AIPC shipments will rank first among all brands in Q1 2024, achieving a steady growth of 7.8%. The global manufacturers will accelerate the AI application and big model iteration, and will continue to enable the long-term development of many technology enterprises in the AI field.
Source: Wind, IDC, Lenovo official website, Great Wall Securities Industry Finance Research Institute
From the perspective of chip inventory, the overall inventory of mobile phone and PC terminal manufacturers is tending to be normal, and the inventory adjustment of photovoltaic and traditional automobile industries is still continuing. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of large memory chip manufacturers is still at a low level. However, according to Korean media Chosun, Samsung and SK Hynix plan to increase the DRAM capacity utilization rate to 100% in the second quarter, so as to prepare for the overall recovery of demand, which is expected to gradually improve.
At present, the consumer electronics industry has recovered, AI has brought new demand, and the semiconductor chip industry is at the stage of cyclical bottoming out and recovery. In the long run, domestic substitution is still the trend under the influence of overseas sanctions. The boom is rising with the promotion of domestic substitution. Interested investors can focus on the investment opportunities of semiconductor equipment ETF (159516), chip ETF (512760), and integrated circuit ETF (159546).
That's all for today~
Risk warning
Investors should fully understand the difference between the regular and fixed investment of the fund and the fractional deposit and withdrawal. Fixed investment is a simple and easy way to guide investors to make long-term investment and average investment cost. However, regular and quota investment can not avoid the inherent risks of fund investment, nor can it guarantee that investors can obtain income, nor is it an equivalent financing method to replace savings.
Both stock ETF/LOF funds are securities investment funds with high expected risk and expected return, and their expected return and expected risk level are higher than hybrid funds, bond funds and money market funds.
The fund assets invested in the Science and Technology Innovation Board and GEM stocks will face unique risks due to differences in investment objects, market systems and trading rules, and investors should pay attention to them.
The short-term rise and fall of the sector/fund is only listed as an auxiliary material for the analysis of the article, for reference only, and does not constitute a guarantee for the performance of the fund.
The short-term performance of individual stocks mentioned in this article is for reference only, and does not constitute a stock recommendation, nor a prediction and guarantee of fund performance.
The above views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice or commitment. If you need to purchase relevant fund products, please pay attention to the relevant provisions on investor appropriateness management, make risk assessment in advance, and purchase fund products with matching risk levels according to your own risk tolerance. The fund is risky, so investment should be cautious.
