(The original text was published on May 12, and the content is the analysis conducted by the ESPN expert group, which does not represent the translator's point of view.)
The lottery draw has ended, and the eagle unexpectedly won the first prize draw with a 3% probability. The Wizards, Rockets and Spurs won the second, third and fourth place respectively, which was unexpected. The Rockets, the Hawks and the Spurs all jumped to the top four, but pushed the Raptors out of the top six, resulting in their first round signing had to be given to the Spurs. With the release of the complete draft order (including the simulated draft results of ESPN), the 22 teams whose season has ended are turning their attention to this year's draft conference, which will be held at 8 p.m. on June 26 and 27, Eastern Time, in the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
NBA fans want to know how the 12 teams participating in the lottery are doing? Will winning the first prize draw push the Hawk trade stars to restructure their lineup? What type of player will the Spurs choose to partner with Wenbanyama? How does the Wizards view this winner? There is less than two months before the draft conference. You can also think about it while waiting patiently The problems that each lottery team will face next 。
First Prize Signature: Atlanta Eagle
Is it really wise to break up the backcourt combination of Dezhangtai Murray and Trey Young?
Bobby Marks: Winning the No. 1 spot won't change Hawk's view of Murray and Yang's backcourt combination. According to the data of Cleaning the Glass website, when Murray and Yang played together this season, Hawk was 6 points behind his opponent every 100 rounds. During their joint presence, Hawk's defensive efficiency was 120.7, ranking fifth among more than 225 pairs who played together for at least 1000 minutes. Murray is about to enter the first year of a four-year contract renewal of 120 million dollars, with a salary of 24.8 million dollars, 20 million dollars less than the top salary players. Trey Young has two years left on his contract (43 million and 46 million), and he can become a free player in 2026.
Top runner: Washington Wizards
What should the Wizards think of this first round signing with the highest ranking in more than ten years?
Ohm Youngmisuk: Wizards President Michael Wenger and General Manager Will Dawkins continue to carry out drastic reforms on the team. Their key next step is the draft. Wenger likes to patiently piece together everything to build. Wizards and Wizards fans often feel that the team is unlucky, but after this season's second worst record in the league (15-67), the lottery did not fall out of the top two, which is a great success. In a draft conference where there is no recognized talent and only one player, Wizards have the number one spot. They can choose a promising rookie and be patient while cultivating. The first draft of the current management was won by French shooting guard Kulibali, who was once considered to take time to cultivate, but this season's growth is much faster than expected. The Wizards currently have a large number of players available in the interior, but Wenger and Dawkins will continue to patiently build the team list with the players they want. Wizards once selected John Wall and Kwame Brown (failure case) with the No. 1 pick. But the last time the Wizards had a title tag was in 1968, when they selected Wes Onsell in the second place. Onsell can be said to be the greatest player in the history of the Wizards.
Exploration visa: Houston Rockets
How can the Rockets use this draft to continue the positive momentum of the team at the end of the season?
Jeremy Woo: This season, the Rockets showed some cohesion after the All Star Weekend, and under the leadership of head coach Udoka, they became the top ten defensive teams, which has undergone significant changes compared with the past few seasons. The Rockets have a number of attractive young lottery talents, but with the renewal of the contract between Jay Green and Shen Jing, the cost of the entire lineup will also increase significantly. The urgent need in the off-season is to increase more projection ability and find a way to better balance some bad personnel on the list. The Rockets have always been Soha's top talent, and then let other players perform their duties. But this time they may have gone far enough in the reconstruction process, and can fully consider the best lineup in this year's draft. At present, there may be no clear best candidate for the exploratory visa, but players like Reed Shepard, Donovan Klingen and Zachary Risashi are all attractive choices.
No. 4: San Antonio Spurs
Which type of player is best suited to partner Wenbanyama in order to achieve results next season?
Andrew Lopez: Let's consider this problem from the perspective of data. This season, only point guard Trey Jones (net efficiency of 1288 minutes, 4.3) and point guard Wasserl (net efficiency of 1222 minutes, 1.3) have played more than 250 minutes with Wenbanyama and their net efficiency is positive. After the All Star Weekend, there were many lineups that cooperated with Wenbanyama, which showed that he was gradually adapting to his teammates. But throughout the season, the two players who cooperated best with Wenbanyama were Jones and Wasserl. The former was a real point guard who could sort out the team's attacks. The latter hit 166 three-point goals in total and led the team. It can be seen that it will never be a bad idea to arrange more shooters around Wenbanyama.
5th position: Detroit piston
How will Pistons deal with the problem of adding a rookie to the already young core team?
Jamal Collier: Pistons have become the team with the highest probability of winning the first prize in the lottery for the fourth year in a row. At the same time, for the second year in a row, they slipped to the fifth place in the lottery, and the slide last year caused Pistons to miss a rare top talent. This year's high ranking rookies prefer to rotate players rather than stars, which makes Pistons face a problem. How to adjust the core lineup, no matter what their signing position is. The seven Pistons who have played the most games this season are not more than 23 years old. What does the addition of a frontcourt player mean to Jay Durham? Will they choose another defender two years after signing Jayden Ivey in the fifth place? Do they still believe that the existing young core can go further, so that they will try to trade the draft? For Pistons, the biggest unknown is who really made the decision to adjust the lineup after the team hired a new president of basketball operations this summer?
6th place: Charlotte wasp
How will the new management and coaching team affect the future of Miles Bridges?
Bobby Marks: Jeff Peterson, the new vice president of basketball operations of the Hornets, explained the team's vision at his inaugural press conference. Peterson said: "Our main goal is to achieve sustainable success. We don't want to play in the playoffs in one season, and then in three or four years, we won't play in the playoffs again. We hope this can continue and turn this team into a team that can win steadily. " This raises a question: how does Bridges fit into a future that already includes Ramelo Bauer, Brandon Miller and the 6th show this year. Bridges was arrested for a felony of domestic violence in June 2022, missed the whole 2022-23 season, and did not dispute the charges. This season, Bridges averaged a career high 21 points per game, and the utilization rate, rebounds and steals were career highs. However, according to the data of Cleaning the Glass website, his effective shooting percentage is only more than 46% of the players in the same position, and his two-point shooting percentage is more than 40% of the players in the same position. Seven teams are expected to have the salary space to sign Bridges, including the Pistons and Jazz. If these teams are not interested in signing Bridges, and the Hornets do not intend to sign Bridges, then both sides can discuss the scheme of signing before changing.
7th place: Portland Trailblazers
Scott Henderson struggled in his rookie season, and Sheldon Sharp was absent due to injury. Has the Blazers found the core of reconstruction?
Kevin Pelton: This is the third consecutive year that Blazers have won the first round of the first round of signing of the top 7. However, Blazers still cannot find a superstar who can replace Lillard as the spokesman of the team. The team still hopes that Henderson, the talent scout in 2023, can become such a player, because he performed well in the final stage of the rookie season (19.4 points and 9.7 assists per game in April, with a three-point shooting rate of 42%). Sharp, the No. 7 show in 2022, also performed well at the end of the rookie season, but he missed 50 games this season. Considering the lack of young people with top talent, the Trailblazer will pay attention to the upper limit of the potential of new talent in the draft, and can consider two new talent from the Development League Light Team - Matas Buzelis and Ron Holland.
No. 8: San Antonio Spurs
Can the Spurs attract a veteran star to take the express train of the previous class? Do they need it?
Andrew Lopez: The Spurs will get a star to fight side by side with Wenbanyama, who will become a very excellent player for a long time in the future. The Spurs should also be able to attract veterans who are willing to accept lower contracts, but next season may not be the right time to go all out. The Western Division will once again be a group of heroes. The Rockets are 41 wins and 41 losses this season, just one step away from the play off; Grizzlies should become stronger while keeping healthy, and the competition in the west will be very fierce. The net efficiency of the Spurs' starting lineup is positive after the All Star Weekend (replacing Champagne with Kelden Johnson). The Spurs may choose to grow up for another year and then look for stars.
No. 9: Memphis Grizzlies
Can the Grizzlies find a big player to make up for little Jaren Jackson?
Bobby Marks: At the media conference after the season ended, General Manager of Grizzlies Zach Cramman talked about their lineup needs in the offseason period of this year. "I think we will at least add one big player," said Crayman. "Whether it's the starting big man or the rotation big man, I think we still have some work to do on the team's big list." How will Grizzlies do this, not through the free agent market, but through trade or the June draft conference. However, because the Grizzlies are in the rear of the lottery draw, center Sal and Klingen may not fall to the ninth. Grizzlies need to figure out whether to choose the best rookie available, perhaps guard Stephen Castle or Nicola Topic, or to force a center, such as the center of Purdue University, Zach Eddie, or to exchange draft rights for a mature player. One thing worth paying attention to is the financial situation of Grizzlies next season. The total salary of Grizzlies next season has exceeded the luxury tax line, including show 9 and guard Luke Kennard. Grizzlies must decide Kennard's team option of $14.7 million before June 28.
No. 10: Utah
Jazz, who have salary space and assets, have many choices in the off-season. What is their priority?
Jeremy Woo: The Jazz, of course, are not in a hurry to speed up the pace of reconstruction. They have a lot of future draft assets, and the team may need more seasons to return to the playoffs. The Jazz lineup is at a crossroads, with both young players who need playing time and veteran players who are not suitable for long-term plans. If the Jazz can be patient with their lineup, it may be more beneficial for them to become a seller. At least wait another season to invest assets. Considering the future flexibility, the most important thing should be to re sign a suitable long-term contract with top scorer Markanin, whether it is to retain him as a part of the core, or to transfer him for chips when the Jazz decide to become younger. Frankly speaking, no matter from any angle, this is not a draft conference that can be expected to introduce a player who has changed the team.
11th place: Chicago Bulls
What does Kobe White's outburst this season mean for the future of the Bulls?
Jamal Collier: Although he missed the playoffs for the second consecutive season, the outbreak of Kobe White is the biggest highlight of the Bulls this season. White's rise, coupled with Dawsom's return to a more suitable position for him and his outstanding performance, Patrick Williams also made progress before the injury. The Bulls have several very good young players. Bulls Vice President Carl Nisovas took responsibility after the season ended. He said that the lack of playoffs proved that the team was not good enough, and they would work hard to improve. In the past, the Bulls actively traded the draft rights, trading the first round signings in 2021 and 2023 to Magic, and owed the Spurs a first round signing in 2025. Now when the Bulls try to find a way to improve their team's lineup, how will they deal with a low ranking lottery pick?
12th place: Oklahoma Thunder (from Rockets)
Judging from the draft history of Thunder in recent years, how will they deal with this award?
Andrew Lopez: Presti, vice president and general manager of Thunder, will try his best to maximize the value of this draft right. Last year, he improved the first round signing by two ranks through trade, and finally got Carson Wallace, who played an important role in the playoffs of Thunder this year. Presti holds a large number of draft rights. If Thunder wants to trade the first round signing up or down, it can chase the players it wants, or obtain additional assets, to realize the reserved draft rights.
13th: Sacramento King
If Monk leaves as a free agent, how can King fill the vacancy and remain competitive?
Ohm Youngmisuk: The positive side of not being in the playoffs is that King can have a lottery ticket. They may indeed need it. It can not only improve the team's lineup in an economical and effective way, but also fill the vacancy in the lineup if Monk leaves. Monk will become a free player. Before he missed the last nine games and play offs of this season due to injury, he was a popular candidate for the sixth man of the year. Monk has spent a career highlight season, ranking third in the team with 15.4 points per game (the highest in his career). At the same time, he is also the organizer on the bench, and 5.1 assists per game is also the best in his career. Maybe the king can use the 13th sign to find a new talent to replace Munk. The king has shown his ability to find treasure in the draft before. They selected Keegan Murray in the fourth place in 2022, and Terence Halliburton in the twelfth place in 2020.
14th place: Portland Trailblazers (from Warriors)
What is the best choice for trailblazers in the 14th place?
Kevin Pelton: The answer may be trading. The list of pioneers is full of young potential stocks, and they also have four top 40 draft picks this year. The Blazers will have 11 players with guarantee contracts next season, and 3 players may have guarantee contracts (Bandon, Camara and Jabari Walker). They have no room to leave everyone. Last fall, the Trailblazers got the draft right in the process of trading Zhu Hollady with the Celtics. At the beginning, they certainly did not expect this sign to become a lottery sign, but could be used as a chip in another transaction.
Original text: NBA Insiders
Compiled by: Li Taibai
