At the moment when the Russian army on the Kharkov front was overwhelming and aggressive, the Kiev authorities received bad news one after another. Sumy State, which is close to Kharkov State of Ukraine, has begun to evacuate throughout its territory. Ukrainian civilians living in the northern region of Sumy State have successively received the "emergency evacuation order" from the governor of the state, which requires all residents living in the border area to withdraw from the local settlements within 48 hours, including those close to Chotkino, Russia (Теткино) Several Ukrainian villages in the village must be evacuated within 24 hours.
(Sumei Prefecture is in the process of national evacuation)
Because all kinds of signs show that the big one is coming! In order to accelerate the attraction and containment of the main force of the Ukrainian army, and further "tear" the military resource allocation and force deployment of the Ukrainian army, the Russian army is about to launch a large-scale ground attack on the northern border area of Sumei Prefecture. At that time, a battle line with a length of 300 to 500 kilometers will be connected from Kharkov war zone to Sumy war zone. Some analysts believe that the huge front width will further flatten the force allocation of the Urumqi army in the "unit area", dilute the advantage of the Urumqi army close to the supply line, thus exacerbating the problem of the shortage of defense forces in the front line of the Urumqi army, and worsening the defense of the Urumqi army in other battle directions and contact lines.
Another noteworthy trend is that recently, many Uzbek soldiers patrolling the eastern border of Sumei Prefecture "disappeared without reason". Several reports of missing soldiers in the border areas have caused high vigilance on the Ukrainian side. The Ukrainian military suspects that the Russian "Northern Campaign Cluster" has invested several sabotage teams composed of special forces personnel in this direction. They go deep into the border area of Sumei Prefecture to understand and master the deployment of the Ukrainian army's trenches and fortifications in the border area, create panic among the Ukrainian soldiers through frequent "tongue grabbing", and then attack their resistance determination. Obviously, this action is in line with the regular action of the Russian army before launching a large-scale ground offensive. Therefore, related events can be seen as a sign that the Russian army is ready to open up the second or third front in Sumy.
On the evening of May 14 local time, the Director General of the General Military Intelligence of Ukraine, Budanov, issued a notice saying that "in view of the current situation in Sumy, he has directly rushed to Sumy from Kharkov to command the defense operations of the Ukrainian army".
(The Uruguayan army has suffered heavy casualties on the front line. Only in the past four days, the Russian army may have killed thousands of people.)
Budanov said on social media that "the Ukrainian government expects that the Russian army will launch a new offensive operation in Sumy, northwest of Kharkov. The operation will focus on the establishment of a buffer zone with a depth of 10 to 15 kilometers. Now, many main forces of the Ukrainian army are deploying infantry companies or mechanized infantry battalions to reinforce Sumy.".
In addition, Budanov clearly stated in his statement that "the Russian army is ready to attack in all directions, and then to achieve the goal of depleting the Ukrainian army's ammunition and personnel reserves. The Russian army hopes to fundamentally shake the morale of the Ukrainian army to continue to resist".
(The situation at the front is critical)
Based on the local media in Ukraine and western sources, foreign public opinion generally believes that the Russian army is very likely to attack the two key transportation hubs, Vorodeba and Bilopiria, because these two settlements are only 3 kilometers away from the Russian border, and there are several east-west and north-south railways and highways nearby, which connect Sumei and Kharkov states, As well as the important strategic points between Sumy and Kiev, and according to the operational habit of Russian military preference for railway system to organize logistics supply, the two places just have a railway line connecting with Russia, which will facilitate the Russian army to penetrate into Ukraine while ensuring that the continuous supply of ammunition and military supplies can keep up with the Russian army's surprise operations.
(At a critical moment, President Zelensky of Ukraine met with Secretary of State Brynin of the United States)
We can see that with the rapid breakthrough of the Russian army in the direction of Kharkov, the Ukrainian military and political authorities have to transfer a limited number of main forces to the Kharkov area. The 92nd Airborne Brigade, 93rd Airborne Brigade, 57th Independent Airborne Brigade and the 1st Presidential Brigade of the Ukrainian army have each arrived in the Kharkov war zone with a battalion level team. In addition, the troops of the 46th, 47th, 79th and 95th Brigades are moving towards Volchangsk, including the Ukrainian troops in the direction of Kherson, Zaporoge, Lugansk and Donetsk, who are drawing troops to Kharkov.
However, to the despair of the western media, because a large number of front-line troops of the Ukrainian army were engaged in a war of attrition with the Russian army on the front line, the total number of most brigade level troops was less than 2000, and the Ukrainian army was seriously understaffed at the grass-roots level, even including battalion level troops. Some troops looked like machine infantry brigades, but in fact there were only brigade headquarters and several battalions left.
(Ukrainian soldier)
At the same time, due to many factors, such as lack of logistics supplies, insufficient ammunition supplies, and lack of personnel, there are only a few combat battalions that can move hundreds of kilometers from the basic units of the Ukrainian army. According to the analysis, even if the Ukrainian army can temporarily assemble more than 50000 defense forces in the direction of Kharkov by the end of May, what will the Ukrainian army do once the border area of Sumei starts to fight? If we continue to draw troops from other directions, we may "press the gourd to float". The Russian army will decide when and where to launch an attack according to the withdrawal of the Ukrainian army, and then gain greater tactical advantage in other directions.
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