(The original text was published on May 13 by Andy Bailey in the bleachers. The content of the article does not represent the translator's point of view.)
The ranking of each team in this year's draft conference has been determined. After the lottery draw, the Hawk locked the No. 1 spot, and the Wizards, Rockets and Spurs ranked in the top four. After the draft ranking was determined, the respective ranking of the new stars became clearer. Of course, after the lottery, there will be winners and losers.
Loser: Detroit Pistons
Pistons have been playing poorly for nearly half an era. In the past five years, their winning rate was only 24.5%. At the same time, their performance ranked the last but not the last in the league, even the gap between the last and the second, and the gap between the last and the 16th. Pistons' record this season is 14-68, which is the team with the worst record in the league and the team most likely to win the first prize. However, Hawks jumped 9 places in the lottery draw and won the first prize draw, although their probability ranked only 10th in the league. The Rockets jumped 6 places, drawing the exploratory draw, while the Spurs quietly jumped 1 place, drawing the fourth draw. The Pistons can only be pushed to the fifth place, and their recent draft history is hardly exciting.
The future of Osar Thompson (No. 5 last year) and Jayden Ivey (No. 5 the year before last) has not been decided, so has Corningham, who will be the No. 1 player in 2021. The two first round shows selected by the Pistons - Kilian Hayes and Segu Dunbuya - have left the NBA. After so many years of bad swing, the Pistons still do not have a certain leading star. Although there may not be any rookies in this session, it would be better if we could start looking for targets from the No. 1 position instead of the No. 5 position.
Winner: San Antonio Spurs
Last year, the Spurs had won the highest prize in the lottery in the past decade, and won the first prize of the following lottery. Somehow, the Spurs' lottery is not over yet. In this year's lottery draw, the Spurs, one of the luckiest teams in the history of lottery draw, were once again favored by the goddess of luck, and their ranking was raised from fifth to fourth. Maybe it doesn't sound like much improvement. Indeed, it's nothing in the draft of the past many years. But in some draft years, this small leap can make a huge difference. In the 2005 draft, Chris Paul was selected in the fourth place, followed by Raymond Felton, Martel Webster, Charlie Villanueva, Channing Frye and Ike Diogu. The total irreplaceable value (VORP) of these five players' career is less than one third of Paul's.
Loser: Charlotte Hornet
The current situation of the Hornets is not as bad as that of the Pistons. Ramelo Bauer has been selected as an All Star, and Brandon Miller, as a rookie of this season, has also shown enough first-class 3D potential. If the three ball and basket guard Mark Williams can keep healthy, the Hornets will have a strong combination of guard+flank+big. However, it would be better if we could use a top three draft pick to contribute to this combination. After the lottery ended, the Hornets with the third highest chance of winning the lottery only got the sixth place. There is still a chance to find a future star in this ranking, but every time the ranking drops, the chance becomes more remote, while the actual ranking of the Hornets drops by 3.
Winner: Houston Rockets
There were several periods this season when the Rockets seemed to have a real chance of making the playoffs. During the off-season last year, the joining of veteran players such as Van Fritt and Dillon Brooks changed the Rockets' pursuit, but the more important factor was the new coach Udoka and the young core who seemed to be developing ahead. As a big player who can score and organize, Shen Jing is only one step away from the All Stars. Jay Green broke out at the end of the season and became a prolific scorer. It seems that Jabbar Smith Jr. will at least become a 3D striker at the rotation level, and can be qualified for the role of the fifth position of the ball. Rookie Amen Thompson and Whitmore have brought multi position defensive ability and toughness to the substitute team. Even if they don't draw the top five, the Rockets will almost certainly fight for a playoff (or at least play off) seat next season. Now, the Rockets can add a top three rookie to the existing core lineup, thanks to the jump of six in the lottery draw, and the return of James Harden in 2021 (as well as other assets).
Loser: Toronto Raptors
Before the trading deadline last year, Raptors traded Ken Birch, the second round of the 2023 round, the second round of the 2025 round and the first round of the 2024 top six protection round for Peltel from the Spurs. A year later, the Raptors made several more transactions during the period (this season, they sent away Anunuobi and Siakam). The Raptors seemed ready to dive in the championship after the transaction and wanted to keep the protected first round signing this year. This is exactly what Raptors did. From the trade deadline to the end of the season, Raptors' record was the fourth worst in the league. Such a bad record was enough to make Raptors' predicted ranking in the lottery ranked sixth. As long as the draw does not decline, it is OK to draw the first six consecutive lots. However, the Raptors fell to the eighth, losing control of the team's first round draw this year, and sent it to the Spurs (of course, this is one of the reasons why the Spurs were listed as lottery winners). Due to the transaction with Pacers, Raptors still have a first round draw, but it is better to have two chances to scratch the lottery ticket (or add some chips to the potential transaction) at the draft conference than one.
Winner: Atlanta Hawk
This is obvious. Although it is predicted that the overall strength of the rookies is average, they can jump from the 10th place (3% probability of winning the first prize) to the 1st place. Hawk is definitely the biggest winner in the lottery. If Hawks are going to break up the backcourt combination of Trey Young and Dezhangtai Murray (perhaps it should be done), then this No. 1 player signature (or the selected player) can be used to add weight to the trading scheme of sending away any one of them, and the selected player can also become the cornerstone of Hawks' team building after the trade. If Hawk is particularly optimistic about a winger or a big player and thinks that he can make the combination of Murray and Yang work, then Hawk may directly select this player and add it to the core team of this season, giving up separating Murray and Yang. The crux of the matter is that Hawk suddenly has more choices than before winning the first prize. Moreover, these choices are not limited to potential stocks that are likely to become top picks.
Original text: Andy Bailey
Compiled by: Li Taibai
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