We may be further away from "internationalization".
In recent days, everyone has been paying attention to the overall lifting of purchase restrictions in some provincial capitals, especially the fermentation after this event. Take Hangzhou as an example. After the overall lifting of purchase restrictions in Hangzhou, the daily new listing volume of second-hand houses soared by 91%.
What does this mean? After the complete cancellation of purchase restrictions on real estate, more people are listing their houses for sale. The second-hand housing market has no restrictions on falling, prices and sales, so it can better reflect the real estate market.
When the supply of second-hand housing starts to increase, it may only be a matter of time before the price of housing declines while the demand remains unchanged.
Many people have realized that the storm in the property market is coming. But compared with the "fixed outcome" of real estate, foreigners are reluctant to come to China, which may be more worthy of our attention.
According to the data of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the five-day Labor Day holiday last week, the number of domestic tourists reached 295 million, which is 28% higher than that before the new coronavirus in 2019.
The data of the Ministry of Transport is also very bright. During the May Day holiday, the railway passenger traffic volume was nearly 92 million, the civil aviation passenger traffic volume was nearly 10 million, and the highway personnel flow volume was nearly 1.25 billion.
Domestic tourism is very good, but the number of international arrivals continues to lag, and even has a faint trend of regression. According to the data, the number of foreigners entering China is only 30% of that in 2019.
Only 30% in 2019, which is a big problem.
Different from what many people think, after the COVID-19 is over, Chinese people should travel as usual. After all, they are all in China. The difference is that it is very convenient to travel from one province to another city.
But foreigners are different. The COVID-19 virus in the past three years has, to some extent, made many foreigners choose to leave China or postpone their travel plans to China. After the COVID-19 virus has passed, the travel demand of foreigners will certainly not disappear, but why are only 30% of foreigners entering China in 2019?
There is only one answer. They went somewhere else.
Of course, tourism is only a part of it; The number of inbound tourists depends not only on tourism, but also on business trips and overseas assignments. The decrease in the number of foreigners coming to China reflects not only the changes in China's tourism market, but also foreign investment.
Last year, China's foreign direct investment had a record decline. Until the first quarter of this year, foreign direct investment has not recovered. According to the recent survey of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, the proportion of people who regard China as the first choice for investment has also declined. These factors can well explain why the number of foreigners coming to China has declined significantly.
The reduction of tourism and foreign investment has directly led to the willingness of foreigners to come to China.
Looking back, 2019 is a very important watershed. In that year, a total of 98 million international tourists came to China. Last year, the number reached 35 million, which is not too steep to describe.
International tourists include business, tourism and even students. As the world's second largest economy, realistically speaking, our internationalization, especially reflected in the number of foreign tourists, is obviously insufficient.
If it is only caused by COVID-19, it is not enough to be called a more terrible crisis than real estate. The COVID-19 in the past few years has objectively led to a sharp decline in the number of foreigners coming to China, but this cannot explain the current situation.
More importantly, the decrease in the number of foreigners coming to China may be caused by "changes in the global geopolitical pattern".
Whether it's tourism or business trip, one of the main things foreign tourists do in China is to consume and invest, and what they fear most about such business activities as consumption and investment is uncertainty.
This uncertainty, to put it more bluntly, is the first impression.
Before we go to a country or even meet a person, the news you first receive, to a large extent, determines your first impression of the country or the person, the so-called prejudice, which plays a decisive role for a foreigner who has never been to China.
For example, a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center abroad in 2023 shows that "most individuals in Western countries have negative views on China, which may cause discomfort to foreign tourists in China."
It is obviously that western individuals have been misled by the western mainstream media, but we cannot deny that this mislead has a decisive effect on their decision-making in many cases.
In addition, some western official travel suggestions also echo this idea, sometimes with very strict wording; Take the United States for example, the United States has issued a notice suggesting that Americans reconsider traveling to China.
Australia also advised its own people to travel to China "with great caution".
The negative impression of Western elites on China, through social media and official travel suggestions, has further influenced individuals in Europe and the United States, and finally led to today's situation.
In addition, the number and price of flights are also a big factor.
In April 2019, there were as many as 1506 flights between China and the United States, but by April 2024, there were only 332 flights.
The decrease in the number of flights will inevitably lead to the high price of air tickets. As soon as the price of air tickets becomes more expensive, it naturally increases the travel cost of foreign tourists to China.
Last November, the senior management of the two sides mentioned this issue and reached a consensus. During the APEC meeting at that time, the two sides reached a consensus to introduce more measures to facilitate personnel exchanges and promote people to people and cultural exchanges, including increasing direct flights between China and the United States, holding high-level dialogues on tourism between China and the United States, and optimizing visa application processes.
Since then, the United States has increased the number of flights allowed to land by Chinese airlines, but it has only increased from 35 to 50 per week, which is still a huge gap compared with 150 per week before COVID-19.
Is this the deliberate act of the United States?
It seems that it is not true. The greater opposition may come from the American people.
The United States is under pressure from its trade union and American Airlines to stop increasing the number of flights because the trade union and American Airlines believe that "this is not equal".
Chinese airlines can fly over Russian airspace, which shortens the voyage and reduces the cost. In contrast, American airlines are obviously unable to fly over.
In addition, the voices of opposition from outside legislators are also very loud. Mike Gallagher, the chairman of the House Committee of the United States, once wrote to Biden: "If the United States does not solve the problem of air transport costs, American air workers, passengers and airlines will pay a high price."
The decrease in the number of flights is another direct reason that affects foreigners coming to China.
From the current civil aviation data, even by the end of 2024, the domestic flight capacity will still be difficult to recover to 80% in 2019.
If this trend continues, it may continue to weaken foreigners' interest in China.
In order to attract foreigners to China, we have actually made many changes.
For example, recently Shanghai has asked foreigners to stay in hotels and no longer required to paint their faces, which is a good attraction for foreigners who always emphasize privacy.
Some scenic spots are also required to keep up with international standards and increase overseas card swiping equipment.
In addition, we have also postponed visa exemption in some European and American countries until the end of 2025, which has greatly reduced the cost of foreigners coming to China.
Of course, from a deeper perspective, we also have a long way to go from "internationalization" itself. For example, our social networking sites, online maps, payment applications and other applications are almost different from those abroad, and these foreign friends also have some difficulties in coming to China to use these software.
Due to the language barrier, it is also difficult for us to ask a foreigner to come to China. We need to use dithering to brush short videos instead of using TikTok.
The low number of foreign tourists is not only related to macroeconomic challenges, but also not only to attract foreign capital. More importantly, it also symbolizes our image and influence in the world.
In order to attract foreign tourists, hotels above three-star level in Shanghai have been told to accept international credit cards, and the first 50 taxis have also begun to accept international credit cards.
In a longer cycle, if we want to make inbound tourism grow in the long term, what changes do we need to make?
Populism is certainly not a desirable thing.
More importantly, I'm afraid we still need to establish a culture to put our services in the interests of foreign tourists. Only when we imagine ourselves as foreigners who can't speak Chinese, have no domestic mobile phone numbers, and have no payment application, can we understand how cumbersome the process of their travel in China will be.
None of these can be changed overnight.
In the past, when we talked about openness, we were actually more open to the inside. We changed the inside by learning and absorbing new things from the outside; But in the future, we may need to learn more about opening up to the outside world. What we feel, see, and even hear are all homogeneous things.
This is not only about tourism and economy, but also about our internationalization.
end.
Author: Luo Sir, an optimistic pessimist who cares about the economy, society and everything in our world, wonders about the logic behind the development of things.
