Writing | Da Wei
Edit | Triumph
The price of silicon materials in the upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain has been lowered again. Many institutions regard the recent price trend of the photovoltaic industry chain as "irrational decline".
On May 8, InfoLink released the latest price of the photovoltaic industry chain. Compared with the last price information (April 25), the average price of polysilicon compact materials fell again by 5 yuan/W, or 10.2%; The average price of granular materials decreased by 2 yuan/W, a decrease of 4.7%.
The time interval for InfoLink to publish prices is mainly the price range of contracts being executed and newly signed from Thursday of the previous week to Wednesday of this week. The spot price mainly refers to the information of more than 100 manufacturers. The "mode" data of the most frequent transactions in the market is mainly taken as the published price (not the weighted average value), which is adjusted according to the actual situation of the market.
In April, the price of silicon material has been falling all the time. Many people think that this is the limit of silicon material price. Unexpectedly, the price in May has gone down all the way, falling below the cost line of most enterprises. The industry believes that, from the perspective of cost, the price of silicon material has entered an irrational range, but in the context of very serious supply side surplus, material enterprises have to further compete with each other in order to withdraw cash, and silicon material prices still have game space; At the end of the month, the breakdown of the water line of 40 yuan/KG for N-type materials is not ruled out, and it is difficult to stop the inner rolling. In this pessimistic mood, some leading enterprises are ready to stick to it for a long time.
Press to the price limit
In the past April, the price of polysilicon has been falling.
In the first week of April, N-type silicon material has just experienced substantial fluctuations, The price of N-type granular silicon fell by more than 8%, N-bar silicon fell nearly 16%.
The second week, April 10, the silicon material data released by the Silicon Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association showed that various silicon materials fell 3.3% - 19.9% month on month.
Among them, P type compound feeding has the largest month on month decline; The transaction price range of dense materials is 48000-51000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price is 48700 yuan/ton, 18.83% lower than the last quotation.
The transaction price range of N-type bar silicon was 55000-60000 yuan/ton, with the average transaction price of 58600 yuan/ton, down 3.3% month on month; The price range of N-type granular silicon is 51000-54000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price is 52000 yuan/ton, down 5.45% month on month.
P-type silicon material is mainly used in traditional PERC photovoltaic technology products; N silicon material is used in the new generation of N-type technology products.
The average price of P-type silicon material has dropped below 50000 yuan/ton, except for re feeding, N-type granular silicon has also approached this value, The price of N-type silicon rod has also dropped below 60000 yuan/ton.
The price of polysilicon fell again in the third week. Among them, the transaction price range of n-type bar silicon was RMB 450-52000/ton, and the average transaction price was RMB 49200/ton, down 6.29% month on month. The transaction price range of p-type dense material was RMB 40-45000/ton, and the average transaction price was RMB 42800/ton, down 6.75% month on month. The price difference of n/p bar silicon is 4100 yuan/ton, and the price difference continues to narrow. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was RMB 42000-44000/ton, and the average transaction price was RMB 43000/ton, down 9.47% month on month.
In May, the price of silicon material did not stop falling, even to the "limit price".
According to the data of Silicon Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, The trading price range of n-type bar silicon was 430-4800 yuan/ton, and the average trading price was 45300 yuan/ton, down 7.93% month on month. The transaction price range of p-type dense material was 38000-43000 yuan/ton, with the average transaction price of 39000 yuan/ton, down 8.88% month on month. The price difference of n/p bar silicon is 4300 yuan/ton. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 39000-41000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 40000 yuan/ton, down 6.98% month on month.
Compared with the high price of more than 300000 yuan/ton in the second half of 2022, the current silicon material price has dropped by nearly 85%.
Also facing the situation of irrational decline is silicon chip. According to the data of Silicon Industry Branch, in the last two weeks, The average transaction price of P-type M10 monocrystalline silicon chips dropped to 1.57 yuan/chip, down 3.68% week on week; The average transaction price of N-type M10 monocrystalline silicon chips dropped to 1.4 yuan/piece, a 9.68% decline on a weekly basis; The average transaction price of P-type G12 single crystal silicon chip dropped to 2.08 yuan/chip, with a decrease of 2.35% on a week on week basis. The average transaction price of N-type G12 monocrystalline silicon was 2.18 yuan/piece, which was flat on a weekly basis.
The price of "avalanche" has completely broken the defense line of photovoltaic enterprises. At present, the leading enterprises with strong cost control in silicon material link are GCL Technology, Tongwei Shares, Daquan Energy, etc. It is understood that the cash cost of silicon material in Daquan Energy's 2023 annual report is 427 yuan/kg (42700 yuan/ton), and the cost price of second tier enterprises is about 50000 to 60000 yuan/ton. If the current silicon price is barely flat for first-line enterprises, it means that second-line silicon factories with poor cost control ability will lose money even if they have orders.
InfoLink Consulting said that the current price level has fallen below the overall production cost level, Some enterprises have begun to gradually arrange for early maintenance and production reduction 。 The Silicon Industry Association is more pessimistic. It believes that the current demand for silicon materials is difficult to recover in the short term. With the continuous decline of downstream construction, the inventory of products and raw materials is at a high level. It is inferred that silicon chip enterprises are less likely to carry out centralized procurement again. It is expected that the cumulative stock level in the second and third quarters will increase but not decrease, and the sales pressure of silicon materials is difficult to be optimistic.
Hibernate and spend the cold winter
Low price bidding, overcapacity, and sharp decline in market value are the "heartache" of photovoltaic industry in 2023 and 2024. This is not in line with the current situation of new PV installations hitting a new high. Under the continuous price attack, the industry atmosphere of soaring and substantial production expansion no longer exists.
A few days ago, the annual report of listed companies was released in the quarter, because the price of silicon products continued to decline, The performance of related enterprises is generally poor 。 Among them, Daqo Energy's net profit in 2023 will be 5.763 billion yuan, down 69.86% year on year; The net profit of Xinte Energy was 4.345 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 67.37%; GCL Technology's net profit was 2.51 billion yuan, down 84.7% year on year.
In the recent institutional research, several leading enterprises were asked about their views on the market prospects. Longji Green Energy, the leader of Longji, is very "calm". It says that in 2024, the price of each link of the industrial chain will be more predictable, and the overall situation will be relatively stable. It will continue to maintain a sound business strategy, and under the sound strategy, it can successfully achieve the set goals.
Tongwei said that every cycle of the polysilicon industry in history was rooted in the mismatch between supply and demand, and this cycle is no exception. The company judges that 2024 will be a period of deep industry adjustment, and the excess capacity will be gradually cleared. With regard to price, Tongwei will continue to follow the market principle and hope to see the steady development of the industry and the automatic adjustment of the market.
When asked whether the company's projects under construction will slow down, Tongwei said that all the company's current projects under construction of high-purity crystalline silicon have experienced long-term research and judgment and full demonstration, and are under the guidance of the company's 2024-2026 capacity planning. In addition, Yunnan Phase II 200000 ton and Baotou Phase III 200000 ton high-purity crystalline silicon projects will be put into operation as scheduled this year. It is expected that after the new projects are put into operation, they will achieve better quality, cost, environmental protection and other goals, and continue to consolidate the competitiveness of the company in the high-purity crystalline silicon sector.
Jing'ao Technology is more pragmatic, saying that the current industry is at the bottom and has reached a consensus that it is difficult to make profits in all aspects. It has prepared for long-term adherence and will cautiously face the industry cycle adjustment. The company also mentioned that the order receiving strategy of "profit first" remains unchanged, while paying attention to cash flow and avoiding losses, and seeking a balance between operating rate and output.
For the future price trend, JA Technology is optimistic that the price of components is close to the bottom, and the downward space is very limited. We believe that the market will adjust itself. The efficiency and yield of the company's own N-type battery products have also been greatly improved, contributing greatly to the non silicon cost of battery production, and holding a cautious and optimistic attitude towards the second quarter.
Li Xiande, chairman of Jinko Energy, is more radical. He believes that the industry will be under pressure in the first quarter of 2024, but will improve in the second and third quarters. The component price may not return to the high level of 1.2 yuan or 1.3 yuan, but it will be adjusted to the profit balance point or the position with reasonable profit. Based on this judgment, Jinko Energy did not choose "low price bidding" in the fourth quarter of 2023.
At the same time, he is optimistic about the photovoltaic market demand in 2024, and believes that there will be 20% growth compared with 2023. This is because the decline in module prices has increased the investment income of photovoltaic power stations, which can stimulate demand.
When asked about the silicon chip strategy, TCL Zhonghuan, the silicon chip leader, said that the company had put forward the slogan of "digging deep into the beach and lowering the weir", "digging our own technology space and manufacturing capacity space, rather than seeking to compete with upstream and downstream counterparts to generate our profits. This is a basic strategy of TCL Zhonghuan based on engineer culture and industry awareness".
In addition to the change of operation strategy, Some enterprises also stopped their previous project expansion to preserve their strength.
On the evening of April 24, China Lai Corporation disclosed an announcement on terminating the silicon based project with a total investment of 14 billion yuan.
It is reported that the investment plan of China Lai Shares will be released in March 2022. At that time, the company believed that the layout of upstream links in the photovoltaic industry would help the company better resist the risk of supply chain price fluctuations. Industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon are the most upstream links in the photovoltaic industry chain.
The announcement showed that the first phase of the project (200000 tons of industrial silicon and 10000 tons of high-purity polysilicon annually) planned by the company at that time would be completed and put into production in 2024. However, the latest announcement shows that the project has not started substantive investment and construction. China Solar said that the market environment of the photovoltaic industry has undergone major changes, and the feasibility of silicon based projects has undergone major changes.
In late March, Haiyuan Composite announced that after friendly negotiation with Quanjiao government, the company signed the Termination Agreement and decided to terminate the project cooperation; And transferred 100% equity of Chuzhou Energy to Zhejiang Aixu Solar Technology Co., Ltd. at a price of 38 million yuan. After the transfer, the company will no longer hold the equity of Chuzhou Energy Company.
Not long ago, Lingda, also a cross-border photovoltaic enterprise, announced without warning to terminate its Tongling photovoltaic cell industry base project.
According to the previous plan, Leanda will invest about 9.15 billion yuan in the project, which will be constructed in two phases. The first phase of the project is to build a production line with an annual output of 10GW Topcon high-efficiency battery chips; The second phase of the project is to build a 5GW Topcon high-efficiency battery chip production line and a 5GW hjt battery chip production line.
In addition, Sunflower has terminated the 10GW TOPCon battery expansion project, Ovi Communications has terminated the construction of 5GW high-efficiency heterojunction battery and module project, and Yijing Optoelectronics Chuzhou 10GW TOPCon battery project has also lagged behind. Daqo Energy, Beijing Yuntong and other companies also have projects that have been put into production late, and Jingang Photovoltaic and Guosheng Technology have terminated relevant fixed growth plans.
The ever vigorous tide of photovoltaic cross-border and production expansion is now "ebbing". Leading enterprises are moving forward cautiously, and second and third tier enterprises need to be fully prepared to deal with this industry reshuffle.
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