Food prices fell seasonally, but the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday promoted the recovery of service prices. In April, the consumer price index (CPI) increased year on year; Driven by the rising prices of crude oil, nonferrous metals and other products and the lower base, the year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on May 11, CPI rose 0.3% year-on-year in April, 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month; It rose 0.1% month on month and fell 1.0% last month. PPI fell 2.5% year on year, 0.3 percentage point lower than that of last month.
Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed that the consumer demand of residents continued to recover in April, and the national CPI turned from a decline to an increase month on month, with year-on-year growth expanding. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 0.2% month on month, down 0.6% last month; The year-on-year increase was 0.7%, 0.1 percentage point higher than that of last month.
On a year-on-year basis, CPI rose 0.3% in April, 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. Among them, the food price fell by 2.7%, the same as last month, which affected the year-on-year decline of CPI by about 0.49 percentage points. Non food prices rose by 0.9%, 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, which affected the year-on-year rise of CPI by about 0.77 percentage points.
Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, analyzed that the prices of major consumer goods in April were stable as a whole. The price of pigs rebounded slightly, and the price of fresh vegetables continued to decline seasonally with the warming temperature. The gasoline price continues to rise with the international oil price. On the whole, CPI continues to operate steadily at a low level.
With regard to the CPI trend in the next stage, Tianfeng Securities said that the pig production capacity was still slow to decline, and the demand was insufficient after summer, and the subsequent pork price was likely to fluctuate. The arrival of the rainy season may have a certain impact on the prices of fruits and vegetables. Combined with the base effect, CPI is expected to recover slowly in May and June, rising about 0.3% and 0.4% respectively.
Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a news conference held by the National News Office a few days ago that from the perspective of future trends, CPI will slowly rise at a low level. On the one hand, the economy continues to improve and the total demand is rising, which is a very important fundamental factor to support the CPI recovery. Second, the prices of some agricultural products have reached the inflection point of price adjustment, such as pig prices. Third, holiday consumption will continue to drive the price of travel related consumption to rise.
In terms of PPI, industrial production continued to recover in April, and the demand of some industries fell back periodically. The national PPI declined month on month, and the year-on-year decline narrowed.
From a year-on-year perspective, PPI decreased by 2.5%, 0.3 percentage point lower than that of last month. Among them, the price of means of production decreased by 3.1%, with a decrease of 0.4 percentage points; The price of means of living fell by 0.9%, or 0.1 percentage point.
CICC reported that the recovery of the global manufacturing industry, geopolitical conflicts and supply side disturbances boosted international crude oil and non-ferrous metal prices, but the recovery of the domestic real estate chain was lagging behind, the physical workload of infrastructure was still slow, and the prices of ferrous metals, coal and building materials continued to fall.
Sheng Laiyun said, PPI will continue to show a trend of decreasing and increasing steadily. First, the economy is getting warmer, and the total demand is getting warmer, which is conducive to supporting the recovery of prices. Second, the policy effect continues to appear, especially the implementation of policies related to large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade in action plan, which will have a positive impact on our related industries. The third is the structural adjustment of some industries. Now, we should strengthen the supply side structural reform and transformation and upgrading. The clearing of some traditional industries will bring positive changes to the supply and demand relationship of the market.
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