Source: Global Times
[Xiao Xinxin, a reporter of the Global Times in Russia] According to the Ukrainian state news agency on the 9th, Ukrainian President Zelensky signed a decree the same day to remove Sergei Ruji from his post as director of the Ukrainian National Security Agency. According to reports, the Ukrainian National Security Agency said on the 7th that two colonels of the Ukrainian National Security Agency had been arrested on suspicion of participating in the assassination plan of Zerensky planned by the Russian Federal Security Agency. On the 9th, Zerensky also signed a bill to extend Ukraine's wartime state and general mobilization order for another 90 days to August 11. This is also seen as an important measure to ensure that it will continue to take power after May 20.
The picture shows President Serenski of Uzbekistan
Ukraine's "strana. ua" news network said on the 10th that Andrei Guk, one of the two colonels arrested by the Ukrainian National Security Bureau, was closely related to Luji, who had planned to let Guk serve as his deputy. Uzbek intelligence departments have long been suspicious of Guk, but Luji has always been "providing cover" for him. In addition, a few weeks ago, Zelensky dismissed the deputy director of the bureau, GrebiOnnikov, who was appointed after Luji became director. On the 9th, the website of Urumqi Channel 24 TV quoted analysts as saying that the adjustment of the leadership of the Urumqi army was due to the normal need to improve the front-line fighting.
Russian "tsargrad. tv" news network reported on the 10th that Luji had been dismissed, reflecting the sharp political contradictions and struggles in Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan's leadership, especially the military, is increasingly dissatisfied with Zerensky. Due to his distrust of the military, Zerensky's recent adjustment of the leadership of the Ukrainian army continues.
On the 9th, Zelensky also signed an order formally appointing former commander in chief of Ukraine's armed forces, Zaluzhne, as Ukraine's ambassador to Britain. The day before that, Zerensky had dismissed the active service of Uzbek armed forces in Zaluzhny. According to a report on the website of Pravda Pravda of Ukraine on the 8th, Zaluzhne had previously received a medical examination from the relevant medical committee of the Ukrainian army. The results showed that their health indicators did not meet the requirements of continuing military service and were no longer suitable for military service, so they were discharged from active service.
Zerenski disarmed the active service of Uzbek armed forces in Zaluzhny
In addition to the above adjustments, Zerenski signed two orders on the 9th: to remove Lupanchuk from his post as commander of the special operations forces of the Ukrainian armed forces and appoint Trepak to take over the post; Jerega was reappointed as the commander of the Ukrainian armed forces support force. In March this year, Zelensky dismissed Jerega from his post and appointed Yakovitz to replace him.
The Russian "military observation network" quoted experts' analysis on the 9th, saying that Zaluzhne's appointment as Ukrainian ambassador to the UK and removal from active service may mean that he will be completely "out" of the Ukrainian army and political arena. Zelensky believed that Zaluri posed a threat to his presidency and political influence, and was very afraid of the military forces represented by the latter. After Zaluzhne was dismissed, the contradiction between Zerensky and the military intensified. Since the end of last year, with the successive defeats of the Ukrainian army, Zerensky has taken this as a reason to continue to vigorously adjust the leadership of the Ukrainian army.
Since February this year, Zerensky has almost completely reorganized the leadership of the Ukrainian armed forces, replacing the commander in chief, chief of general staff, deputy chief of general staff, deputy chief of general staff, army commander, as well as the commander of the joint forces of the Ukrainian armed forces, the commander of airborne commandos, and the commander of the national defense forces.
The Russian "ukraina.ru" news network reported on the 9th that Zelensky's choice to "deal with" Zaluri at this time may be related to the approaching expiration of his presidency and the increasing number of domestic criticisms in Uzbekistan. Zelensky may wish to minimize the resistance to his continuing in office, especially the military forces represented by Zalugine. It is reported that the presidential election of Uzbekistan should be held in March, and the term of office of Zerenski will also end on May 20. But Zelensky has repeatedly prolonged the wartime state. Discussions on this topic have been growing in the Ukrainian army, which is dissatisfied with the failure of the front line and the decision of the political leadership. To this end, Zerensky hopes that the respected Zalurin in the military can leave the country as soon as possible to ensure political stability.
On the 10th local time, the Intelligence General Administration of the Ministry of National Defense of Ukraine released a news that, with the deterioration of the situation on the front line, the Russian authorities are launching a new round of information and psychological warfare against Ukraine to intensify division and undermine social stability in Ukraine. In the current difficult period, Uzbekistan needs to maintain internal unity and mutual support. The Russian authorities know how to effectively manipulate emotions and facts and mix truth with lies. The Russian "military observation network" reported on the 9th that the current Russian army has taken the initiative in the battlefield and is constantly pushing forward to expand its advantages. After controlling more settlements in the Donetsk region, the Kharkov region may be the next direction of attack.
Extended Reading
Media: Russia's Wanted Zerensky Is Intending to Force Ukraine to Change Its Commander
According to RIA Novosti, on May 4 local time, data from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs showed that Ukrainian President Zelensky had been listed on the wanted list by the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs. Later that day, the Kiev Independent reported that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine responded that it was worthless for Russia to include Zerensky on the wanted list of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs.
Legally speaking, Russian laws cannot "cross the border" to govern Ukrainian affairs. In this sense, this arrest has no practical effect. However, from the perspective of international politics, Moscow's move does not mean at the legal and technical level, but has broader political implications.
Force Ukraine to "change coach"?
Along with Zerensky, former Ukrainian President Borishenko, Ukrainian army commander Pavlyuk, former deputy minister of the Ministry of National Defense of Ukraine and current president of the National Defense University of Ukraine Kovalli are also "on the list".
Poloshenko served as the President of Ukraine from 2014 to 2019. During his tenure, Ukraine's domestic and foreign policies turned pro Western, which was marked by the "Ukrainian Independence Square Movement" in May 2014. Since then, relations with Russia have deteriorated.
On April 19, 2019, in Kiev, Ukraine, Poloshenko and his presidential rival Zelensky participated in the general election TV debate picture/Visual China
At present, according to Russian media reports, the basis of the arrest is the Russian Criminal Code, but the specific terms have not been disclosed. On the same day, Nina Ostanina, Chairman of the Committee on Family, Women and Children Affairs of the Russian State Duma, commented that it was obvious that Zerensky and Boroshenko were accused because they "committed crimes against humanity in the Donbas region, the New Russia region, other Russian territories, and now Ukraine". She also pointed out in her social media that the entire political leadership of the Kiev regime was illegal after the "coup in Independence Square of Ukraine".
"Illegal" is the key word to understand this arrest. This is related to the situation that Ukraine may face a "change of coach" at present. Ukraine's presidential election was originally planned to be held on March 31, but it could not be held as scheduled due to the state of war. Ukrainian President Zelensky believed that "now is not the right time to hold elections". Zerens was sworn in as President on May 20, 2019, and his term of office will end on May 20 this year.
With the protracted war between Russia and Ukraine, there are divisions in Ukraine on issues such as "war and peace" and "how to fight". Zelensky's support rate is no longer the same. Whether he can be re elected is really a problem for Zelensky. As Zaharova, a spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, said, the dispute over "election or non election" made Zerensky very nervous.
The picture shows Zhaharova's information. She said that the controversy of "choosing or not choosing" made Zelensky very nervous
Moscow is very "concerned" about this. From the Russian Foreign Minister to the President's press spokesman, the Russian Permanent Representative to the United Nations, and the media, they have been closely following Ukraine's elections recently. A few days ago, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that with the end of Zerensky's original term of office, Russia may no longer recognize him as the leader of Ukraine. At the end of March, he said in an interview with the News, "As for the deadline of May 20 and what will happen on May 21, let's wait and see. Maybe we don't need to admit anything". "The legitimacy discussion of Zerensky may become meaningless after his term expires on May 20".
Although Russia has repeatedly said that it is "not afraid of the continuation of the war", it is still the best strategic solution for Moscow to end the conflict as soon as possible and prevent it from "falling into the historical quagmire of the war in Afghanistan" again. At this time, the internal change of command in Ukraine will undoubtedly provide an opportunity to change the seesaw state on the current battlefield and even end the conflict. In other words, even if the "main battle" Zerensky cannot be replaced, it is also beneficial for Russia to use the election to intensify the contradictions among the various factions in Ukraine and disperse Ukraine's energy on the battlefield. From this point of view, behind the end of the term of office of Zazerianski, there is a series of strategic and tactical considerations of Moscow.
One "can't lose", one "can't lose"
The elections in Ukraine also touched Washington's nerves. Earlier, the US media had analyzed that whether Ukraine's elections were related to the front-line war situation and the US aid to Ukraine. According to CNN, some Republicans have begun to point their fingers at the issue of Ukraine's presidential election, trying to detain military aid to Ukraine on the grounds that President Zelensky's term of office will end in May. However, this is a very "entangled" problem. Without the election, there will be no assistance from the United States. In turn, without the assistance of the United States, Zerensky will face great challenges in re-election.
In late April, the situation gradually became clear. On April 24, Biden signed a national security package worth US $95 billion, of which US $61 billion was earmarked for Ukraine, and legislation cleared the way for the United States to quickly resume arms shipments to Kiev. Biden said at the White House on April 24: "I will ensure that the transportation begins immediately... We will start to deliver anti-aircraft ammunition, rocket systems, armored vehicles and other equipment to Ukraine."
On the same day of April 24, the US official revealed that Ukraine began to use the long-range missile system of the "Army Tactical Missile System" (ATACMS) secretly provided by the US for the first time. Last week, it bombed the Russian military airport in Crimea and bombed the Russian army in another occupied area overnight. For a long time, Ukraine has been seeking to obtain this new type of missile from the United States. Compared with the medium range version of weapons received from the United States last October, this new missile almost doubled Ukraine's strike distance to 300 kilometers. Jack Sullivan, the National Security Adviser of the White House, said that the additional ATACMS has been included in the new military assistance plan signed by President Biden on the 24th. "We have sent some. Now that we have additional power and funds, we will send more.".
Several months after the public refusal, the United States confirmed that it had secretly provided the Ukrainian army with long-range missiles. The picture is a screenshot of relevant reports
The "blood transfusion" of the United States, to a certain extent, hedged the pressure on Zelensky caused by Moscow's speculation of "elections", so that Zelensky could stabilize his mind and tide over the current difficulties. At present, Russia and Ukraine, as the two sides of the conflict, have entered a state of stickiness and seesaw, one cannot lose, the other cannot lose. Zelensky said at a meeting on May 3 that "the war with Russia has entered a new stage", or it is related to this.
In a short time, it is difficult to see the end of the conflict. For the United States, this geopolitical crisis in Europe has reactivated NATO, further consolidated the United States' control over Europe through the strengthening of the trans Atlantic partnership, and further included Japan, South Korea, Australia and other countries in the breadth and depth of their own security framework through "NATO" in the Asia Pacific direction, Even in Central Asia, which is traditionally mainly influenced by Russian geopolitics, the "decentralized reconstruction" of the security structure has begun to appear.
Therefore, in Russia's view, it is time to seize the opportunity to force Ukraine to "make mistakes" by taking advantage of Ukraine's internal and external troubles, and speak frankly from Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Zaharova that Zerensky "faces the pressure and anxiety of elections", When Putin responded to whether Russia was willing to stop fire in Ukraine at the request of French President Makron, he said, "We support peace negotiations, but not just because the enemy is running out of bullets", which clearly conveyed a judgment that Ukraine is currently in internal worries and external difficulties. In Putin's view, the current peace talks will only give Ukraine a chance to breathe and "rearm up".
It is not the first time that Russia has wanted leaders and senior officials from other countries. On February 13 this year, according to the Tass News Agency, citing the information from the database of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Estonia's Prime Minister Kaya Karas and State Secretary Tamar Petrokop were wanted by Russia on suspicion of dismantling and damaging the monument of Soviet soldiers. The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs also issued a statement that, for the same reason, the Lithuanian Minister of Culture Simone Sarris was also included in the wanted list. Since the beginning of the "special military operation" in February 2022, Russia has issued arrest warrants for several Ukrainian politicians.
Today, when strength is still the main "hard currency" in international politics, the legal arrest often has logic outside the law. Now the wanted Zerensky can also generate a new narrative of war responsibility, focusing on Zerensky, so as to replace the contradiction between Russia and Ukraine with the contradiction between Russia and Zerensky. In this way, Ukraine can be divided and space can be opened for dialogue between Russia and other Ukrainians.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine ridiculed that Russia's arrest "proves the desperation of Russia's state machinery and propaganda", and "I don't know what other news reasons can be put forward to attract attention".
