Analyzing Bucks' Off season Outlook: Another Year? Can the existing lineup keep healthy and compete for the championship?

(The original text was published on May 3 by Bobby Marks of ESPN, and the content of the article does not represent the translator's point of view.)

This season's record: 49-33

June draft signing: 23rd (from Pelican) 33rd/34th position (From Pioneers)

Free Player: Malik Bisley, Jay Claude, Patrick Beverly, Danilo Gallinari, Sanasis Adtokumbo, Little Taitai Washington

Lineup

Expensive and fragile. Don't expect the Bucks to overreact again after being out of the first round. Brother Alphabet missed the whole series against the Pacers, and Lillard missed G4 and G5, so how could there be too much reaction? Last year, Brother Alphabet also missed G2 and G3 in the first round of the series eliminated by the Heat. What the Bucks need to assess now is whether the healthy version of the Bucks can compete for the championship after a complete training camp under the leadership of Rivers, who took over from Coach Griffin as the head coach of the Bucks in the middle of the season. After Rivers took office in January this year, the Bucks' record was 17-18, the 18th in the offensive efficiency league and the 15th in the defensive efficiency league. Under the leadership of Rivers, the Bucks scored 5-11 in the crucial moment. Alphabet, Lillard and Middleton played only eight games together during Rivers' coaching, with a record of 3-5. Under the guidance of Coach Griffin, their record was 25-9. This season, the core trio played for 758 minutes together, and the Bucks' net efficiency during these times was+17.5, ranking second among all the trios in the league who played at least 600 minutes together. Bucks sacrificed their future to promote Lillard's trade, and then replaced Coach Griffin with Rivers. This season is either a championship or a failure season. Because of Lillard's transaction, the Bucks will not have their first round of signing until 2031 (they have two top 35 draft picks in June this year). The guaranteed salaries of Lillard, Middleton, Alphabet and Lopez will add up to 152 million dollars next season.

Off season financial situation

The Bucks are expected to become a luxury tax paying team for the fifth consecutive season, with a total salary of 183 million dollars, exceeding the luxury tax threshold of 12 million dollars. The Bucks have already surpassed the first local luxury line. Once the lineup is complete, they will surpass the second local luxury line. After the Bucks became the second local elite team, they could not send more salary than the contract they exchanged back in the transaction, could not package the contract transaction, could not send cash, could not sign first and then get players, and could not use the mini middle class exception of $5.1 million. The Bucks can trade the expiring contract between Lopez and him for more than 23 million dollars, and exchange for several players, as long as their total salary is less than the 23 million dollars of Lopez. If AJ Green is not fired before July 8, his salary of 2.1 million yuan next season will be fully guaranteed.

Top priority of management

Bucks may lose Beasley, Claude and Beverly in the free agent market Because the Bucks have exceeded the Tuhao line, they cannot provide each player with a contract with a starting salary of $4 million. How should the Bucks replace this group of free players who average 23.5 points and start 110 times per game , will depend on the following two choices. The first is to sign players with one-year veteran base salary contract The disadvantage of this choice is that the same process must be experienced again during the off-season next year. The second is to focus on training some young players into a team puzzle with an average of 15-20 minutes per game Including AJ Green, Beecham, Chris Livingston, Little Andre Jackson and two draft picks this year. Due to various injuries in the playoffs, little Andre Jackson played for 25 minutes in the G4 team, which lost to the Pacers. He is the only Bucks player who has played for at least 5 minutes with positive and negative values. AJ Green played an average of 13.9 minutes after the All Star weekend, and his 3-point shooting rate at the end of the regular season was 40.8%.

Player contract renewal worthy of attention

Pottis's performance has exceeded his four-year contract of 48.6 million dollars signed in 2022. The striker ranked third in the best sixth person vote this season, and ranked second among the substitutes in terms of total score. Pottis's salary of 12.5 million dollars next season is lower than the average level of the league, and has not reached the amount of the full middle class exception 。 Pottis's second shooting percentage in his career exceeded 50%, and his three-point shooting percentage exceeded 40%. He is qualified to sign a four-year contract extension of 78.9 million dollars , the total amount exceeds his career income so far. The salary of $17.6 million in the first year will replace the $13.4 million team option of his current contract in the 2025-26 season.

Other candidates for renewal: Pat Connaughton

Team needs

The depth of Middleton and substitute lineup in the playoff version 。 Middleton's average score in the playoffs reached a career high (24.7), but he played only 55 regular season games, averaging 15 points in 27.2 minutes.

Future talent assets

The Bucks can trade their first round of signing in 2024 and 2031 from the night of the draft convention. The first round of signing in 2025 will be owned by Pelicans if it falls in the top four, and the first round of signing in 2025 will be owned by Knicks if it falls outside the top four. Pelicans also have the first round swap right of stags in 2026 and unprotected first round signing in 2027. Pioneers have the first round swap rights between the Bucks in 2028 and 2030, and the unprotected first round signing in 2029. In addition, the Bucks have a tradable second round (2031).

Original text: Bobby Marks

Compiled by: Li Taibai