This year, it seems that no one really mentioned "nine gold and ten silver".
The last time was on September 23, 2019, Yu Liang, Chairman of Vanke's Board of Directors, said frankly at the Vanke South Regional Media Exchange, "The sales in September this year are not good enough, and there may not be a golden nine."
Going forward, in 2018, there were experts who said, "In the last three years, there has been no gold or silver."
But no matter in your mind, the year 2022 must be the N+1 year since the golden nine and silver ten years have passed away.
01
Emotional collusion between developers and buyers
Fundamentally, "nine gold and ten silver" is not based on the conclusion of market transaction data, but the conclusion of developers and buyers Emotional collusion , or Social atmosphere 。
For developers, this is the promotion sprint season, and the supply team is in place; For house buyers, the end of the year to do major things, three happy home buyers, atmosphere group in place.
However, in order to verify the transaction data, "nine gold and ten silver" is not true.
In a good market year, September is not the most prominent one; In the year when the market is not good, September is even more mediocre.
Especially in recent years, "Nine Gold and Ten Silver" is more like a alarm clock , remind the real estate business operators---
Annual KPI before submission Only 100 days left Has.
In addition, after the implementation of the centralized land supply model, the new housing market has reacted in a chain way, and the developers have no autonomy even to push the pace.
fast Is the only way to solve it. Like Beijing's new housing market, it has become a routine operation to take three months to open the market.
as for This year, the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" also probably missed the appointment 。
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales area of commercial housing in the first seven months of 2022 is 780 million square meters, almost Back to the level in the first seven months of 2016 (760 million square meters).
The industry estimates that the sales area of commercial housing this year may be only 10 trillion yuan.
The industrial high of 17 trillion yuan for five consecutive years has become history.
02
Why don't you buy a house this year?
Compared with the "golden nine and silver ten", we should ask why no one will buy a house this year?
There are many reasons. For example, the overall economy has declined, the residential demand has been overdrawn, and the demographic dividend has disappeared
There is no need to say more about the relevant one by one argument. Yan Sujun believes that several recent hot searches can be focused on, reflecting the truth.
Hot search ① Yes, according to the data of the Central Bank, household deposits increased by more than 10 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, while the increase in household deposits in the past few years was basically between 6-8 trillion yuan.
Is everyone making more money this year? No, people prefer to save money, or, Less willing to consume and spend Has.
Hot search ② Yes, Bank of Communications announced that "1% penalty will be charged for early repayment". Although it was withdrawn the next day, more and more Buyers repay loans in advance It is a fact.
In the face of uncertainty of income and investment, if no investment channel with higher income can be found, idle funds will be used to repay loans in advance, and passively become the "best choice".
In the real estate group of serious gentleman with N 500 people, some netizens said---
"The savings in the first three decades and the loans in the next three decades have resulted in 10 years of rapid growth of real estate." In other words, the market demand and purchasing power are excessively overdrawn, and the industry scale has peaked.
From the current performance, not only the demand overdraft in the past, but also the first choice for new savings and loans, is no longer the house.
What cannot be ignored is that the epidemic has lasted for three years Collapse of confidence 。
Confidence in the house. We have witnessed the thunders of big real estate enterprises, the uncompleted new housing projects, and the struggle to protect rights in the process of housing delivery
"Housing is not speculation" has never been popular, and the future house prices will neither fall nor rise as a consensus.
After all, buying a house ends with investment.
Confidence in yourself. Who knows when the next isolation will come, will I be the next one to be laid off, and will I be able to pay off the mortgage next year? The greater the uncertainty, the more we must grasp the certainty, Increasingly afraid to spend money.
So cash is king.
03
Differentiation, key words of future property market
The next question is, can we still buy a house? Where and how can buyers who really need housing buy?
There are many suggestions---
The more relaxed the restrictions on purchase, the more far away; Select a dynamic city with first-line/strong second-line population inflow; It's not difficult to get on the bus, and it's difficult to change rooms
Serious Jun wants to talk about some details and keywords--- differentiation 。
Differentiation between cities with different energy levels , of course, it is very obvious. The Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and the Midwest, Northeast differentiation; Provincial capital city and non provincial capital city; Strong second tier and ordinary second tier and third tier cities with developed industries
But even the first tier cities in the north, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have shown a completely different Law of development and Market cross-section And more representative.
In 2019, Beijing ranked first in the average housing price in cities nationwide. In 2020, it was overtaken by Shenzhen, and in 2021, it was overtaken by Shanghai.
In the past two years, Shanghai, Shenzhen, including Guangzhou, have all experienced different levels of general growth, while in Beijing, only a few high-quality sectors have risen, and most of the outer suburbs have continued to decline, which has never returned to the 2017 price peak.
Urban differentiation is also intensifying 。
Since 2020, we have said that Beijing has "returned to the commercial housing market". This year is the year of improvement and the year of luxury housing. What we like to talk about is "the two things rich people love to do most, one is to buy luxury goods, the other is to buy luxury housing."
But nobody noticed that, The big year of improvement is just the small year 。
Data shows that the total transaction price of second-hand houses in Beijing in 2015 was less than 5 million yuan, accounting for about 85%; The average transaction price of new houses is 29000/㎡;
By the end of 2020, these two figures will be 65% and 51076 yuan per square meter respectively.
Shenzhen property market is also typical Spindle type structure 。 According to the latest data, in the first half of 2022, only 42% of Shenzhen's second-hand houses were sold below 5 million.
The unit price is getting higher and higher, the area is getting smaller and smaller, and the total price remains high Big cities are fully Hong Kong oriented 。
Shanghai Pyramid 。
The gradient is obvious and the structure is stable from rigid demand to improvement and to top luxury. The number of sales of houses below 3 million yuan accounted for the most, 38% in the first half of 2022, and the number of houses between 3 million yuan and 5 million yuan accounted for 35%.
This means that every year, there are a large number of just in need buyers who buy 3 million and 5 million houses and continue to replace them. With backing and wheel movement 。
What can be linked behind this is that Beijing "reduced development", low-end industries to ease, the most difficult to settle down in the country; However, Shanghai has relaxed its settlement for two consecutive rounds, relying on outsiders to realize the positive growth of urban population.
Seemingly unrelated, but closely related.
Therefore, in addition to such hard indicators as GDP and population, the internal temperament and direction of the city also deserve attention.
Interaction moment:
What do you think of the "Gold Nine Silver Ten"? Will you buy a house this year? Welcome to leave a message and discuss in the comment area~
