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NetEase Auto reported on May 15
The Biden government, which had killed the red eye for the election, has again taken a step back.
One of the targets of this "political stick" is China's electric vehicles.
On May 14, the US government officially announced that it would impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and other products.
The White House announced that it would three hundred and one The value of the terms for imports from China is 18 billion US dollars element We will levy tariffs on our products, including steel and aluminum, electric vehicles, semiconductors, batteries, key minerals, solar cells and cranes.
Among them, the tariff rate of lithium-ion electric vehicle batteries will be increased from 7.5% to 25% in 2024, while the tariff rate of lithium-ion non electric vehicle batteries will be increased from 7.5% to 25% in 2026; The tariff rate of battery parts will also be increased from 7.5% to 25% in 2024.
What is more exaggerated is that the tariff on Chinese electric vehicles will be increased from the current 25% to 100%. Before Trump came into power, the preferential tariff on imported electric vehicles in the United States was 2.5%.
According to insiders, in fact, the targeted Chinese goods do not rely on the U.S. market. Biden's new tariffs on China, although seemingly fierce, are only symbolic, but in the long run, basically rule out the possibility of Chinese new energy vehicles entering the U.S. market in the future.
There are many Chinese car companies "going to sea", but only a few "going to the United States" car companies, America's tariff increase is like a double-edged sword. "It hurts eight hundred enemies, and it loses one thousand" , which has even greater impact on American auto companies than Chinese auto companies.
First of all, the tariff barrier of 25% has blocked Chinese cars from the US market to a large extent.
In 2023, China's automobile export will surpass Japan for the first time and become the first in the world. Among them, 1.203 million new energy vehicles will be exported, with a year-on-year growth of 77.6%, but the export target countries will mainly focus on southeast In Asia, South America, the Middle East, Europe and other places, the number of electric vehicles exported to the United States is only more than 10000, accounting for less than 1% of the total exports.
According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, in the first quarter of this year, auspicious It is the only Chinese car company that has exported cars to the United States, with an export volume of only 2217 cars. The U.S. market share in the global market of Chinese electric vehicles has dropped to less than 0.5%. Therefore, the penetration rate of Chinese electric vehicles in the U.S. market is extremely low at present. The short-term economic impact of this tariff increase is actually minimal.
Secondly, automobile is a fully globalized industry, and car manufacturing is by no means an "isolated island". Brands in different countries cooperate with each other. In addition to the final products, parts and raw materials, the industrial chain has long been globally integrated, moving the whole body. According to the data of the U.S. Department of Transportation, the domestic brands of electric vehicles, such as Mustang （ parameter | picture ）Mach-E or Tesla Model 3 30% to 51% of the parts and components come from China. Unilateral trade protection by imposing unreasonable tariffs can only hurt each other and defeat each other in the end.
Not long ago, the Biden government announced that it plans to increase the market share of electric vehicles from 7.6% in 2023 to 56% in 2032. Without Chinese made and provided low-cost batteries and raw materials, this goal will be difficult to achieve.
The most direct result of this tax increase policy of the United States is that it will push up the cost of electric vehicles, batteries and other electric vehicle hardware. If it causes the tariff counterattack of the Chinese government, it will be even worse. The high price of electric vehicles is not in the fundamental interests of American consumers, and the excessively expensive price will directly delay the electrification process in the United States, It will also wipe out the efforts made by the United States to deal with climate change.
Therefore, the tariff increase this time is more for the purpose of political show off, and has caused limited losses to Chinese automobile enterprises. However, This is a dangerous signal. What Chinese car companies are more worried about is that it will cause a bad demonstration effect to the EU and other regions as well as other countries.
In recent years, China has made rapid development in key areas such as electric vehicles. China has completed the transformation from quantity to quality in the field of new energy electric vehicles, and has taken over cities and territories in Europe, bringing enormous pressure and challenges to the European automobile industry.
Data shows that in 2023, China's production of new energy electric vehicles will account for 60% of the world's total, and its share in the European electric vehicle market will soar from 0.4% in 2019 to 7.9% in 2023. Without the restriction and interference of EU policy factors, 20% of EU's electric vehicles will come from China in 2027.
Therefore, since last year, the EU has launched a policy of "countervailing investigation" against Chinese cars. The ultimate goal is to determine whether it is necessary to impose additional tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. In March 2023, the European Commission began to carry out customs registration for electric vehicles imported from China, which means that if the final investigation concluded that additional tariffs were needed, it would be traced back to this time point.
In this regard, German Minister of Digitalization and Transport Falk also said that he did not want the EU to block the market. German car companies wanted to participate in competition. Germany hoped that its own companies could remain competitive in the global market. The EU would destroy this process by imposing punitive tariffs.
The executives of German carmaker BMW and Volkswagen also expressed their opposition to the EU's "punitive" measures against Chinese new energy electric vehicles. On the one hand, China is an important market for German cars, and on the other hand, they are worried about China's countermeasures against the EU. In addition, they may endanger the EU's own "European Green New Deal" ——The plan covering greenhouse gas emission reduction, green energy investment and carbon neutrality targets believes that it is "lifting a stone and throwing it in the foot".
Therefore, The real crisis is not that the United States imposes tariffs again, but that it sends a signal to curb the development of China's new energy vehicle industry. In response, the Foreign Ministry spokesman said: "China will take resolute measures to safeguard its own rights and interests.".
For Chinese auto enterprises committed to going abroad and going global, they need to adjust their globalization strategies in a timely manner. On the one hand, forging iron requires their own hard power to further improve their own hard power in technology, products, industrial chain and other aspects; on the other hand, they need to balance the layout, better study local laws and policies, strengthen strategic alliances through innovative cooperation In the future when trade barriers may become the norm, we should be prepared to fight a "protracted war" with localization and other strategies.
