4HtzzMHNsgQ Author: Feng Yaren, Chen Zishuai world.huanqiu.com article [Circumtemporal depth] With 43% of "independent voters", how will it affect the US election? /e3pmh22ph/e3pmh26vv <article><section data type="rtext"><p>Editor's words of [Feng Yaren, Special correspondent of the Global Times in the United States, Global Times reporter Chen Zishuai]: With the primary elections of Kentucky and Oregon in the United States ending on May 21, the primary election stage of the 2024 U.S. presidential election is nearing the end. Many American media have recently turned their attention to "independent voters" (also known as "non partisan voters"), believing that this group will play a key role in this year's general election, and the two parties in the United States are starting a "battle" against this group. According to the data released this year by Gallup, an American pollster, the proportion of independent voters among American adults will reach 43% in 2023, a new high since 2014, and continue to constitute the "largest political group in the United States". A number of American experts who have studied this phenomenon have analyzed that independent voters are showing a trend of youth, most of whom are politically inclined. In the context of clear voting choices of Democratic and Republican supporters, it is crucial to study and understand the needs of independent voters for the election</ p> <p><i class="pic con"><img data alt="On April 2, a voter filled in his ballot at a presidential primary polling station in Manhattan, New York. (Visual China) "src="//img. huanqiucdn. cn/dp/api/files/imageDir/2b246adfc8c506869501e27e86237d2au5. jpg? ImageView2/2/w/1260 "/></i></p><p><p><em data scene=" strong ">Three misunderstandings about independent voters: centrist, apolitical, and predictable. Mike Allen, founder of Axios, an American news website, said in an article published on the website last April: "We are attracted to those who have the most voice every day, but the fact has proved that more and more Americans want something else - political independence." According to the Global Times reporter, many independent voters in the United States believe that they are "fighting for American democracy", There are many journalists, judges and clergy among them</ p> <adv-loader __attr__inner="7004636" __attr__style="width: auto; position: relative;float: left;border: 1px solid #ebebeb; padding: 20px;overflow: hidden;margin: 10px 30px 40px 0; "></adv-loader> <p>Reuters and Ipsos, a pollster, conducted a survey from January to March this year on the ethnic composition, age and other characteristics of independent voters. The survey results show that in terms of ethnic composition, nearly semi independent voters are white, and African Americans and Latinos account for about 20%. Especially among the newly registered Latino voters in the past four years, up to 42% of them are registered as non partisan</ p> <p>It is worth noting that independent voters are younger than bipartisan voters. According to a Reuters and Ipsos survey, 26% of all independent voters belong to Generation Z, and 36% belong to the millennial generation. Other data show that since the beginning of 2020, the median age of those who turned to non party voters is 46 years old, seven years younger than the average age of 53 years for the overall electorate. Professor Gamara of Florida International University said that the retrogression of reproductive rights and gun safety, as well as the cultural war on public education and other issues, led to the growing frustration of young people with traditional political parties</ p> <p>According to the US News and World Report website, independent voters are mostly distributed in the seven "swing states" in this year's election, especially Arizona and Nevada in the southwest of the United States. Data shows that independent voters are currently the largest voter group in Arizona, accounting for about 40%. Kevin, an Arizona college student who calls himself an "independent person", said he believes that the "political hodgepodge" of the state has led to a large number of independent voters. On the one hand, older conservative retirees are moving in; On the other hand, the liberal culture of neighboring California still has a strong influence. At the same time, several generations of Hispanic voters in the state are dissatisfied with both parties</ p> <p>According to the Spanish newspaper El Pais, Professor Tom Reilly of Arizona State University has devoted himself to studying American independent voters in recent years and participated in the establishment of the "Center for Independent and Sustainable Democracy" last year. He analyzed that many people and polling agencies have many misunderstandings about independent voters. Reilly said that one of the most common misconceptions is that independent voters are regarded as a group with the same political views, and that they are in the same political spectrum, such as "centrists". But in fact, independent voters are also divided into different factions. Some are centrists, some have political tendencies, some have no knowledge of politics, and some are radicals or anti party figures</ p> <p>Can independent voters really achieve political independence? Reilly said that independent people are not "divorced from politics", which is another misunderstanding of them. In fact, independent people usually have their own political preferences, and only a few can be considered as truly independent, with the proportion of about 10% to 13%. In fact, about three quarters of independent voters are called "tendentious persons". Although independents are unwilling to identify themselves as a party in the fierce competition between the two parties, most of them will still vote for a candidate from both parties in a fairly consistent way in the end</ p> <p>So which party do independent voters prefer? Reilly said that the unpredictable voting pattern is another major feature of independent voters in the United States. Take Peter Maxin, 67, who was registered as a Democrat and a Republican successively, as an independent voter in 2020. Previously, when he registered as a Republican voter, he voted for Jimmy Carter, a Democrat, while when he registered as a Democratic voter, he voted for Ronald Reagan, a Republican. Maxin said that when Ralph Nader was nominated as the presidential candidate by the US "Green Party" in 2000, he became one of Nader's supporters</ p> <p>According to Riley's poll tracking over the years, when independent people are asked which political party they prefer, the results of the poll have fluctuated over the years. "If you observe for a period of time, you will find that in 2012, their support rate for the Democrat Barack Obama was 8 percentage points higher than that of the Republican Party at the beginning. Later (2016) when the Republican Trump announced his election, the support rate of the independent people for him was 4 percentage points higher than that of the Democratic Party. By 2020, their support rate for the Democrat Biden will be 13 percentage points higher than that of the Republican Party. " Riley said that the traditional political polling institutions tend to believe that those "hesitant people" who ultimately decide to vote for in the election will win, but in fact, "they do not realize that this is actually an unpredictable group"</ p> <p><em data scene="strong">The problem of "the third party" has always existed, but its influence is limited</em></p><p>The New Republic magazine analyzed that the direct reason for the rise of independent people is that "the silent majority wants something different from what the two parties provide". Richard Arenberg, a senior researcher at Brown University, analyzed that "when things become less than ideal, people will feel better if they pull out."</p><p>The issue of "the third party" has always existed in American politics, but its impact is limited. In December 2022, Arizona Senator Kirsten Sinama announced that she would withdraw from the Democratic Party and become an independent person. She hoped that voters in the state would recognize her as a "maverick who is tired of politics like everyone else". Another example is the centrist political organization No Labels, which was founded in 2010 with the goal of establishing a bipartisan cooperation platform in Congress to bridge bipartisan differences and improve the political ecology of the United States. The organization proposed a "third party" plan for the 2024 general election, but abandoned it last month. In addition, Chinese American entrepreneur Yang Anze also participated in the US presidential election in 2020, and later formed the "Forward Party" and served as the co chairman. "The United States needs a more moderate, majority oriented new political party," Yang Anze and his supporters wrote in a declaration that the party's motto is "not left, not right, but forward". He believes that by having more options, voters can "shop around" before making a decision</ p> <p>Fox News reported that although some independent voters disappointed with the bipartisan system may vote for third-party candidates and seek new alternatives, on the whole, it is still a long-term challenge for third-party candidates to improve their competitiveness and compete with bipartisan candidates</ p> <p>Some people believe that the increase in independent voters reflects that most Americans hold a relatively negative view of the entire political party system and the current situation in the US political arena. According to the poll data of the Pew Research Center in March this year, about 1/4 of Americans have negative views on the existing candidates, and only 2% have favorable views. Speaking of the true mentality of independent voters, Matt Grossman, a political science professor at Michigan State University, said: "Among the independents who support a party, they also have a mentality of hostility towards the other party. They do not have a strong liking for the party they support, but only have negative feelings towards the party they oppose." </p><p>According to a 2017 Pew Research Center poll, more than 60% of independent people who are more inclined to the Republican Party or the Democratic Party hold "very" or "somewhat" cold views of the other party. These voters usually end up voting for one of the two parties, just to ensure that the other party they dislike more will not take power. Yana Krupunikov, a political scientist at the University of Michigan, said: "Many independent voters may be willing to vote, but they will not encourage others to do the same. They are trying to achieve the result of" the lesser of the two evils ". In a sense, this is a sad choice." Krupunikov added, Many independent voters publicly declare that they are "independent" or "indifferent to politics" on social occasions, in fact, because this can help them get rid of the dilemma of having to talk about politics with others</ p> <p>Qiang Ge, a professor of the Party Construction Department of the National School of Administration of the Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, told the Global Times that there are more and more independent voters in the United States, which generally reflects the dissatisfaction of some voters with the existing two party system in the United States, especially that they believe that neither of the existing two parties can represent their own aspirations. However, it should be noted that non party figures do not mean that they are not active in the general election. For example, Trump's supporters may be very firm or even fanatical political activists, but they may claim to be independent when conducting public opinion polls or even registering for voting, because they do not agree with the existing Republican system. The same is true of the Democratic Party. There are also many radical leftists among non party people who prefer the Democratic Party. For example, Sanders, an 82 year old politician known as an "independent senator", who has participated in two consecutive Democratic Party primaries, will participate in party activities of the party and have a great influence in the party, but he will withdraw from the Democratic Party after participating in the party primaries. Sanders himself, his supporters and young voters have the same attitude. From this point of view, the growing number of non partisan voters does not mean that the political enthusiasm of American voters has declined, but rather that the current bipartisan system in the United States, especially the mainstream of the current bipartisan system, cannot be recognized by a large number of voters</ p> <p><em data scene="strong">The increase of independent voters may lead to a large deviation in the opinion poll forecast. Most independent voters chose to support Biden in 2020, but this poll shows that Biden's support rate is slightly behind Trump in this key voter group, even though Trump's negative evaluation in this group is "not much better than Biden". Whether Democratic, Republican or non partisan respondents, about 70% of them hope that independent candidates or "third party" candidates can participate in the next presidential candidate debate. CBS reported that politicians with extreme ideology are not very popular with independents, so candidates are likely to focus on portraying their opponents as more extreme images</ p> <p>Qiang Ge told the Global Times that at present, independent voters in the United States are mainly divided into two parts: one is people who are traditionally dissatisfied with the two parties, are politically indifferent, and will not participate in the general election; The other part is very active activists. Therefore, the increase of independent voters will not lead to a decline in the voting rate in the general election, but may lead to a large deviation in the prediction of the poll. The basic assumption of the American poll prediction system is that independent voters may vote for both the Communist Party and the Democratic Party, but this is not the case for independent voters in the United States at present. Similarly, the increase in independent voters will not bring the policies of the two parties closer to the middle</ p> <p>"In such a polarized era, we know that Republicans will vote for Republicans and Democrats will vote for Democrats," said Riley, a professor at Arizona State University. "This is why the focus should be on those independents. If I offer advice to political parties, I will focus on finding out what drives independents to vote. "</ p></section></article> one trillion and seven hundred and sixteen billion four hundred and one million five hundred and fifty-three thousand three hundred and thirteen Copyrighted works of Globegroup are strictly prohibited from being reproduced or mirrored without written authorization. Violators will be investigated for legal responsibility. 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