4HpqPW2owlG Author: Li Yujia opinion.huanqiu.com article Li Yujia: New policies frequently stimulate the vitality of real estate /e3pmub6h5/e3pr9baf6 <article><section data type="rtext"><p>On May 17, a package of policies was introduced in the field of real estate. The first is to adjust financial policies and comprehensively repair the driving force of real estate development. The central bank canceled the lower limit of interest rate policy for commercial individual housing loans for the first and second housing at the national level; The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision issued a notice that the minimum mortgage down payment ratio should be adjusted to not less than 15% and not less than 25% when households purchase the first and second homes. The loan interest rate of the first and second housing provident funds was also cut by 0.25 percentage points. More importantly, the national video conference on housing guarantee and delivery held on the 17th clearly pointed out that we should continue to adhere to the urban policy, fight the battle against the risk of uncompleted commercial housing, and solidly promote the key work of housing guarantee and delivery, and digest the stock of commercial housing. How to view this round of intensive adjustment of real estate policy</ p> <p>Recently, the real estate market continues to adjust. Judging from the just released house price index of 70 cities in April and the national real estate sales data from January to April, the real estate is still in the adjustment period. On the one hand, the market performance is weak, and on the other hand, hundreds of millions of new citizens and young people want to realize their housing dreams. According to the "seven census" data, at present, Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces, which are economically developed and have a relatively large number of migrant and young people, have 46.2% and 57.8% of the permanent residents' housing ownership rates in the places of employment, which indicates that the housing demand in these two provinces is strong, and there is also a large space for subsequent incremental market development. In addition, in combination with the recent promotion of the registration of second-hand housing "old for new" in Nanjing, Zhengzhou and other places, there is also great potential for urban residents to change houses to improve the living environment</ p> <p>In addition, the fixed deposit interest rate has fallen below 3%, entering the "two era", but the five-year LPR is still 3.95%, and the minimum interest rate for the first house is 3.75%, which further weakens residents' willingness to buy houses through mortgage to a certain extent. Considering the increase in the number of second-hand houses listed, the current real estate market environment has changed a lot. The demand side is dominated by the new citizens' demand and the old citizens' exchange of houses. They are very sensitive to prices and costs, and objectively need to promote the whole chain to reduce costs and lower the threshold. Therefore, the policy of reducing the down payment ratio and interest rate of the first and second house mortgages is undoubtedly in line with the change of demand side</ p> <adv-loader __attr__inner="7004636" __attr__style="width: auto; position: relative;float: left;border: 1px solid #ebebeb; padding: 20px;overflow: hidden;margin: 10px 30px 40px 0; "></adv-loader> <p>The interest rate cut and the down payment cut have not only lowered the threshold for house purchase, but also reduced the pressure on the monthly supply of housing loans. In addition, since 2022, the price of commercial housing in hot cities has been adjusted back for more than two years. The "threshold reduction+house price reduction+interest rate reduction" and the recent efforts of various regions to promote the "old for new" in reducing transaction costs mean that the ability to pay monthly supply has declined significantly. Some netizens said that compared with the previous high house price and interest rate, the monthly payment for the same house is almost half less. The monthly supply is affordable, and the willingness of new citizens and young people to buy houses will increase. This is of great significance for promoting the virtuous circle of demand for new and second-hand houses, activating the trading market, promoting de stocking, and stabilizing the real estate price system</ p> <p>In addition to the demand side, the supply side is also a major focus of this round of real estate policy. At the meeting on May 17, it was proposed that the relevant local government should proceed from the actual situation and properly dispose of the idle stock residential land that has been transferred by means of recovery, acquisition, etc., to help real estate enterprises with financial difficulties. On the one hand, this is to "subtract" at the supply side, sending a positive signal to the market to reduce inventory; On the other hand, this measure is also mainly to promote guaranteed housing delivery, that is, to recover and purchase land, increase the funds available to developers, consolidate the main responsibility of housing enterprises for housing delivery, so that the next stage of delivery of new housing can be delivered smoothly, dispel the market's concerns about the delivery of forward housing, and protect the rights and interests of buyers</ p> <p>More importantly, the meeting also proposed that in cities with large inventory of commercial housing, the government can order and purchase some commercial housing at reasonable prices as affordable housing. For local governments, there are public rental housing, security housing for rent or sale, demolition and resettlement housing and other financing and construction tasks every year. When there are a large number of stock houses available in the market with a wide geographical distribution, the necessity of incremental construction decreases. It is feasible to combine the incremental housing source preparation with the stock housing source digestion</ p> <p>More than that, take the recently valued affordable housing for rent allocation or sale allocation as an example, in the early stage, it was believed that this kind of demand was mainly concentrated in the first and second tier cities. But in fact, in recent years, with the inward migration or restructuring of the industry, the population flows frequently, and the number of people returning home increases. Third and fourth tier cities are actively building new industrial parks, and new employment groups such as takeaway boys, express riders, nannies and homemakers, and self-employed people have emerged. Objectively, it is also necessary to increase the preparation for the construction of rent allocation or sales allocation security housing, In the future, there is a great potential to purchase the stock houses as security houses</ p> <p>Of course, we should implement the principle of lowest cost (for example, the purchase price is land consolidation cost+construction and installation cost), as well as the principles of openness, transparency, marketization, legalization and commercial sustainability. For example, all links from house selection to completion of acquisition, including evaluation, purchase price, house distribution, due diligence and risk assessment, need to be publicized. In general, if at the demand side, the expectations of the rigid demand and housing replacement groups for low housing prices and low monthly supply are met; At the supply side, the stock of houses is actively digested. The government purchases some commercial houses at a reasonable price and supplies affordable housing. With financial support, the real estate industry and the market will gradually stabilize if it is targeted to rent or sell to the guaranteed population. (The author is the chief researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center)</p></section></article> one trillion and seven hundred and fifteen billion nine hundred and sixty-nine million fifteen thousand nine hundred and seven Copyrighted works of Globegroup are strictly prohibited from being reproduced or mirrored without written authorization. Violators will be investigated for legal responsibility. Editor in charge: Zhao Jiandong Global Times one trillion and seven hundred and fifteen billion nine hundred and eighty-six million two hundred and fifty-four thousand eight hundred and seventy one one []