Recently, the Chinese Academy of Sciences released data on second-hand housing prices in ten major cities. The market shows that the "price for volume" market of second-hand housing is still continuing, and second-hand housing transactions in core cities remain on a certain scale.
According to the 100 city price index of China's real estate index system, in April 2024, the average price of second-hand housing in 100 cities fell 0.75% month on month, 5.38% year on year, 0.19 percentage points and 0.58 percentage points higher than that in March, respectively. Among them, the average price of second-hand housing in ten major cities fell 0.89% month on month and 5.10% year on year. However, the performance of each city is differentiated.
First tier cities: Guangzhou Shenzhen transactions are active and demand for moving north is released steadily
From the transaction price, the second-hand market of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen was still in adjustment in April, but the transaction activity was somewhat differentiated. Among them, after the release of demand in Beijing and Shanghai, both the trading volume and the transaction price have been corrected. The price of second-hand houses in Beijing fell 1.10% month on month, while the turnover fell 6.5% month on month to 13354 units. With the optimization of the housing purchase restriction policy at the end of April, it is expected that the activity of Beijing's second-hand housing market will increase in May. The market in Shanghai also cooled down, with the price of second-hand housing falling 1.04% month on month. In terms of transactions, 15724 second-hand housing units were sold, down 11.8% month on month.
In contrast, the market activity of Guangzhou and Shenzhen is relatively high. Among them, Shenzhen grew by 8.7%, 38.6% year on year. From January to April, the cumulative year-on-year growth was 23.3%. However, the trend of exchanging price for volume continued, and the price of second-hand housing fell 0.64% month on month. In Guangzhou, both volume and price were slightly adjusted, but the transaction scale was still on the rise.
In addition, the second-hand market in Hangzhou, Wuhan and other places is also relatively active. As for the current market, the Chinese Academy of Sciences has analyzed and pointed out that since May, many cities have further optimized their property market policies. It is expected that more core cities will optimize their restrictive policies in the future. First tier cities will optimize their purchase restriction policies for different people, different regions, and different areas. Second tier cities may completely cancel their purchase restriction policies; In addition, core cities may speed up the follow-up of the central bank policy, and there is room for the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rate to be reduced. At present, many cities are carrying out the "old for new" activity, which will help to improve the release of demand for market replacement and enhance the activity of the second-hand housing market. Under the "price for volume" situation, the second-hand housing transactions in core cities are expected to maintain a certain scale.
Editor: Yang Haoxian