At the invitation of President Xi Jinping, Russian President Putin paid a state visit to China from May 16 to 17.
The state visit coincides with the historic milestone of the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Russia. During the visit, the heads of state of China and Russia issued a joint statement.
In this joint statement, as well as in the talks between President Xi Jinping and President Putin, the reporter noticed that the word "expediency" repeated twice. In the joint statement, it is said that:
The development of China Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination in the new era is in line with the fundamental interests of the two countries and the two peoples. It is not an expedient measure. It is not affected by a single event, and has strong endogenous power and independent value.
As for China Russia relations, the United States and the West have a voice that this is the last choice of the two countries under their respective strategic pressure, and this sentence from China and Russia is the most direct response to this argument.
What is the signal behind this sentence?
Many people have noticed that President Putin has brought a large delegation to China this time, and some netizens have summarized it as a "moving visit to China".
The reporter learned that Putin was accompanied by several vice premiers during his visit to China, who were respectively responsible for the economy, society, energy, resource development, tourism and culture. The delegation also included Foreign Minister Lavrov, Defense Minister Beloussov, Finance Minister Siluanov, Central Bank President Nabiulina, and Federal Security Council Secretary Shoigu. In addition, the Russian side also sent a large trade delegation, including leaders of more than 10 states and districts and heads of important companies.
Why did you bring a delegation of so many people?
A word from China can answer this question—— And truly provide mutual assistance for the development and revitalization of both sides.
sino-russian trade , is an important perspective to understand this sentence.
Five years ago, President Xi Jinping visited Russia. The heads of state of China and Russia announced that the bilateral relations will be upgraded to "China Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination in the new era". The heads of state of China and Russia also set the goal that the bilateral trade volume between China and Russia will exceed 200 billion US dollars by 2024.
It is an important logic for the development of China Russia relations that the heads of state lead to promote the improvement of bilateral relations step by step. Liu Huaqin, director of the Eurasian Institute of the Research Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, told reporters that the establishment of such a goal shows the confidence of the leaders of the two countries in the economic and trade relations between the two countries, as well as their firm belief in consolidating the relations between the two countries.
You know, in 2018, the trade volume between China and Russia just exceeded 100 billion dollars. Moreover, before that, the Russian economy had once been in trouble, which also led to a sharp decline in Sino Russian trade volume, even a third of the decline.
Under such circumstances, why did the heads of state of China and Russia set the goal of 200 billion US dollars? If this figure is a result, what kind of seeds have been planted in China Russia relations, giving the two heads of state such confidence?
The reporter collected the press releases exchanged between President Xi Jinping and President Putin since 2013, and made a full analysis of the words co appearing with "cooperation". The reporter found that, especially since 2014, the words "the Belt and Road", "energy", "high-speed rail", "infrastructure", "investment", "high-tech" and "local currency swap" began to appear frequently.
This group of words corresponds to the solution that China Russia economic and trade seek in the face of twists and turns.
For Russia, at that time, the Russian economy was particularly dependent on energy exports. Especially after 2014, the global economic growth was sluggish and the global energy demand was weak, which also made the Russian economic development stagnate.
Russia urgently needs new investment and construction to create new economic growth points. China's "Belt and Road" initiative provides a fulcrum for the global expansion of new economic growth space.
At the same time, Russia has also begun to take a more active role in promoting economic transformation and changing the single economic structure that is excessively dependent on commodity exports, which forms a strong complement to China's own industrial structure upgrading.
This trend can also be seen from the key words in the content of the exchange between the heads of state of China and Russia:
Under the leadership of the head of state, China Russia trade is also undergoing positive changes.
In terms of structure, although energy still plays an important role in Sino Russian trade, the proportion of related products with high added value is rising. In addition, the proportion of labor-intensive products such as textiles and shoes in Sino Russian trade is gradually declining.
In this process, Sino Russian trade has been challenged by the external environment without interruption.
In 2018, the United States launched a trade war against China. When President Putin visited China that year, China and Russia issued a joint statement. Among them, it is particularly mentioned that "conflicts are high in today's world, geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, space for constructive cooperation is shrinking, and economic protectionism is rising". In addition, China and Russia also jointly expressed that they "oppose unilateral economic sanctions that bypass the UN Security Council, and blackmail and pressure that undermine the principle of fair and honest competition and damage the world economy."
In 2022, the crisis in Ukraine escalated. The United States and Western countries imposed financial and economic sanctions on Russia in a wide range, trying to block Russia's economic exchanges with the outside world, and creating artificial obstacles to China Russia trade exchanges.
Under such circumstances, in 2023, the trade volume between China and Russia will be 240.11 billion US dollars, up 26.3% year on year.
That is to say, despite various setbacks and challenges, China Russia trade will still reach the target of 200 billion yuan ahead of schedule by 2023. This figure is a footnote, which shows that China Russia relations are not interfered by third parties and always develop bilateral relations in accordance with the common interests of both sides.
If we see this clearly, we will find that some foreign media have used the growth of Sino Russian trade volume to distort the essence of Sino Russian relations, which is untenable from the logical starting point - Sino Russian relations cannot be affected by these noises, let alone change the established pace of cooperation between the two sides because of coercion and pressure.
The reporter noticed that during his visit to China, President Putin also rushed to Harbin to attend the opening ceremony of the 8th China Russia Expo.
During his state visit to China, he specially arranged to visit the second city, which is the second of President Putin's 12 visits to China since 2014.
This special arrangement stems from a statement last year.
Last year, President Xi Jinping paid a state visit to Russia, and the two sides signed a joint statement on the development plan of key directions of China Russia economic cooperation before 2030.
In this joint statement, two signals about the future direction of China Russia economic cooperation were released:
First, the statement on China Russia connectivity in the joint statement has expanded from "promoting landing railways and boundary river bridges" to "vigorously developing railways, highways, aviation, river transport and maritime transport", which means that a series of three-dimensional transport hubs and infrastructure networks will be built on the Sino Russian border;
Second, from "expanding investment and economic and technological cooperation" to "promoting high-quality development of bilateral investment cooperation".
Focusing on these future directions, the two sides signed investment agreements for more than 80 important projects. These projects are mainly concentrated in eastern Russia, especially in the Far East.
Wang Wen, Executive Dean of Chongyang Institute of Finance, Renmin University of China, told reporters that in 2022, China's direct investment in Russia will account for 0.36% of China's total foreign direct investment stock; Russia's investment in China accounts for about 0.02% of China's foreign investment. In terms of two-way investment, there is still great potential between China and Russia.
This time, in the joint statement on deepening the comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination in the new era jointly issued by the heads of state of China and Russia, the two sides specifically mentioned strengthening investment cooperation in the Russian Far East.
Harbin is the most important fulcrum for investment cooperation between China and Russia in the Far East.
President Putin made a special trip to Harbin in order to further promote the cooperation in the future development direction of the two countries' economy.
The two heads of state personally took the helm and personally pushed forward, which is precisely because of the cooperation between China and Russia, mutual achievements and mutual assistance.
China Russia cooperation is not an expedient measure, but should be viewed in the context of the world trend.
As mentioned by the Chinese side, It is a common strategic choice for China and Russia to increase strategic cooperation, expand mutually beneficial cooperation and conform to the historical trend of world multipolarization and economic globalization.
After the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine, some American and Western countries tried their best to discredit the economic relations between China and Russia and asked China to "choose sides". And China Like most countries in the world Choose to stand on the side of fairness and justice, and choose to stand on the side of the historical trend.
According to the data of the General Administration of Customs of the Russian Federation, Russia's trade volume will be 710.1 billion dollars in 2023.
Among the countries doing business with Russia, in addition to the rapid growth of trade between China and Russia, the trade volume between India, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and other developing countries and Russia has also achieved rapid growth. Among them, the trade volume between Russia and India almost doubled.
These data are closely related to one sentence—— Maintain the stability of the global industrial chain and supply chain. Since 2022, this expression has also been frequently mentioned by the heads of state of China and Russia.
As an important source of energy and food in the world, Russia has an important impact on the stability of the global industrial chain and supply chain. In recent years, the aggressive monetary and fiscal policies of the United States have led to high global inflation, and Russia's position has become more prominent.
Last year, the report of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development mentioned that many developing countries face the risk of being caught by trade disputes - they must choose sides in economic conflicts that they neither want nor need. All these factors will have a negative impact on the exports of developing economies and damage their prospects for structural transformation.
To activate the development of these developing countries, it is necessary to promote international trade. For this reason, for some countries, the significance of doing business with Russia is not simply trade.
Take Turkey for example, automobile is one of the main products exported by Turkey to Russia last year. Last year, due to the rise in commodity prices caused by regional conflicts, Turkey still failed to get out of the shadow of high inflation. The Turkish currency is also under great depreciation pressure due to the continuous interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve.
In this case, the automobile manufacturing industry has become a key fulcrum to maintain Turkey's exports and support Turkey's economy.
In 2023, Turkey's automobile export to NAFTA declined by 22.5%, and its automobile export to Russia increased by 42%. In the end, even in the face of economic difficulties, Turkey's exports in 2023 still created a historical record, in which automobile exports became the industry that contributed the most to exports.
It can be seen that some items such as automobiles that have been listed in the sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and Western countries are actually the lifeblood of the economic development of many developing countries like Turkey.
The indiscriminate sanctions imposed by the United States and Western countries have not taken into account the due rights of developing countries to integrate into globalization and pursue a better life.
Therefore, China and Russia have also been taking actions to promote inclusive economic globalization and a just and stable multipolar pattern.
The reporter noticed that in the press release of the meeting between President Xi Jinping and President Putin, both President Xi Jinping and President Putin stressed that China and Russia will strengthen communication and cooperation within the framework of the United Nations, the BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and other frameworks.
Since January 1 this year, Russia has assumed the rotating presidency of the BRICS countries in 2024. On the same day, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Iran and Ethiopia became full members of the BRICS, and the number of BRICS members increased from 5 to 10.
The increase in membership means that the voice of BRICS countries on global issues will be more representative. Especially in the international financial and economic fields, which are of great concern to developing countries, there can also be greater achievements.
Under the situation that developing countries are generally trapped in the destruction of the international trade and financial order, last year, members of the BRICS countries, including China and Russia, deepened their consensus that they should continue to explore ways to increase the use of their own currency and the diversification of payment instruments in cross-border transactions, so as to protect and promote the trade and investment of the BRICS countries.
Just as the heads of state of China and Russia made the judgment that the great changes in the world are accelerating, the status and strength of the emerging powers in the "global south" countries and regions are growing, and the world multipolarity is accelerating.
Under the general trend, China and Russia will naturally further accelerate the promotion of development potential, resources, opportunities and other factors, and develop in favor of emerging markets and developing countries.
If you have a good way, you will be as good as a thousand miles.
Grasping such a world pattern and historical trend, we can understand that China Russia relations are not an expedient measure, but the backbone of the common values and pursuit of mankind as a great power.