Original title: Global Unmanned Combat Vehicles have a rapid development momentum
According to the US "Army Technology" website, in recent years, with the continuous development of artificial intelligence and sensor technology, more and more unmanned combat vehicles have accelerated to the battlefield, becoming a new force on the land battlefield. Unmanned combat vehicles have played an important role in many local conflicts. Foreign media predict that the market sales of unmanned combat vehicles will double in the next 10 years.
Rising market demand
The report quoted the analysis report of "Global Data" consulting company, saying that the global market value of unmanned combat vehicles will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 5.9% before 2034. In the next 10 years, the market value of the unmanned combat vehicle will increase from the current 668 million dollars to 1.2 billion dollars, with the total market value approaching 10 billion dollars.
From the perspective of task type, combat type unmanned combat vehicles will occupy the main market share of unmanned combat vehicles, accounting for about 33.7%; Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance type unmanned combat vehicles account for 26.7% of the market share of unmanned combat vehicles; The rest are logistics and explosive disposal unmanned combat vehicles. From the perspective of vehicle types, tracked unmanned combat vehicles, as the main vehicle type, account for 40% of the market share of unmanned combat vehicles, followed by wheeled unmanned combat vehicles. It is noteworthy that the foot type unmanned combat vehicle (robot dog) has reached 15% of the market share. In terms of regional distribution, North America will surpass Europe, which is currently ranked first, with a market share of 41.6%; The Asia Pacific region rose to the second place with a market share of 32.1%; The market share in Europe is 22.1%.
Foreign media analysis pointed out that the rapid development of unmanned combat vehicles in recent years is mainly due to two factors.
On the one hand, it is the enlightenment of war practice. As early as 2015, Russia has used "Platform-M" crawler type unmanned combat vehicles and "Argo" wheeled unmanned combat vehicles in the Syrian battlefield, and has achieved great results at a very low cost. Since then, many countries have put unmanned combat vehicles into the battlefield and achieved good results. Unmanned combat vehicles have many advantages, such as non-contact, non-linear, asymmetric, zero casualties and so on.
The other is the development of emerging technologies. At the early stage of the development of unmanned combat vehicles, due to the influence of communication, network and other factors, they played a limited role in the battlefield. With the continuous development of automatic control and artificial intelligence technology, many countries have abandoned the traditional remote control type of unmanned combat vehicles and actively developed autonomous unmanned combat vehicles. For example, the Israeli M-RCV unmanned combat vehicle, in addition to having the automatic driving function, also relies on the omni-directional situation awareness system to independently scan and identify surrounding threats, carry out fire strikes, and can also be networked with manned combat vehicles to achieve information and intelligence sharing.
Multi party preemption
In recent years, with the rapid development of the unmanned combat vehicle market, many countries have increased their R&D and investment to seize the development opportunities.
First of all, we should strengthen the strategy and policy preference. Many countries make overall planning for the development of unmanned combat vehicles from the top-level design. In February this year, the US Army released the report on the Transformation of the Army's Force Structure, which proposed that it would promote the restructuring of the force structure from the aspects of weapons, equipment and staffing, and significantly expand the size of unmanned combat forces. Russia has established a national military robot technology research and test center and a national robot technology development center to formulate an overall plan for the development of unmanned combat vehicles and provide technical guidance. The United Arab Emirates promotes the development of unmanned combat vehicles by introducing foreign advanced technology and accelerating in-depth integration. After the acquisition of Estonia's Milham Robot Company, its state-controlled EDGE Defense Group has mastered the core technology of developing unmanned combat vehicles.
Secondly, increase investment. Many countries promote the construction of unmanned combat vehicle projects by increasing relevant R&D funds or increasing procurement efforts. For example, the US Army invested US $20 million in research and development for the "robot escort vehicle" project in 2017, and set aside US $700 million in research and development budget for the future light unmanned combat vehicle project in 2023. The Korean Defense Agency recently released the Bidding Announcement for the Procurement Project of Multifunctional Unmanned Vehicles, announcing a procurement plan with a total budget of 49.63 billion won (about 35.56 million US dollars).
Thirdly, speed up the technology update and upgrading. In combination with battlefield experience feedback and the latest scientific and technological development, many countries actively improve and upgrade unmanned combat vehicles to improve their operational performance. In 2023, the US Army proposed an optimization plan for the next generation of unmanned combat vehicles, focusing more on improving payload capacity. The Type-X Unmanned Combat Vehicle, jointly produced by the United Arab Emirates and Estonia, is equipped with a diesel electric hybrid power system to improve mobility and reduce noise, thus prolonging the combat time.
Opportunities and challenges coexist
Some analysis points out that in the future, the unmanned combat vehicle may not only further develop into one of the main forces of land warfare, but also be squeezed by the unmanned aerial vehicle in the R&D budget, slowing down the development speed.
From the perspective of advantageous opportunities, on the one hand, manned/unmanned cooperative combat has become a trend, ensuring the development space of unmanned combat vehicles. According to the analysis, all countries in the world attach great importance to the intelligent construction of weapons and equipment, and seek the organic combination of equipment and high-quality military personnel. For example, the unmanned combat vehicles in the U.S. Army's manned/unmanned cooperative combat program have participated in exercises for many times, and the comprehensive combat effectiveness has been recognized by the U.S. Army. Its next generation combat vehicle project will also continue to implement the policy of manned/unmanned coordinated combat, and the number of unmanned combat vehicles of the U.S. military in the future will exceed 2000. On the other hand, the procurement demand for unmanned combat vehicles is strong. Some countries with a declining population believe that in the case of a shortage of troops, unmanned combat vehicles will become an effective complement to the army.
From the perspective of risk challenges, the unmanned combat vehicle is disturbed by complex factors on the ground, and its combat capability is unstable. The analysis points out that although the unmanned combat vehicle can meet the requirements of non-contact and zero casualties, its sensors are vulnerable to interference from the surrounding complex environment, and its combat capability is greatly reduced in the urban interior, mountainous jungle and other terrain environments. In addition, compared with the UAV, the combat distance of the UAV is short, the attack capability is weak, and the combat area is limited. Especially in recent local conflicts, unmanned combat vehicles are frequently attacked by unmanned aerial vehicles, which brings more uncertainty to their development. (Wang Changfan, Che Dongwei)
