Original title: US style "fighting the fire with hard work" intensifies the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine

　　 The crisis continues to delay and the conflict becomes more intense——

　　 US style "fighting the fire with hard work" aggravates the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine

Recently, a foreign aid appropriation bill, which has been shelved for several months, was passed by the US Congress, of which 60.84 billion US dollars was used to aid Ukraine. This move has attracted much attention. At present, some ammunition listed in the new military aid is being transported to the front. Since the outbreak of the crisis in Ukraine, the United States has not only been the "manipulator" of the assistance to Ukraine from the coalition partners, but also the country with the most military assistance to Ukraine. At a time when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to drag on, the American action of "saving the fire by taking pains" will further intensify the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine.

The battlefield situation is unprecedentedly unfavorable to Ukraine, which is an important reason why the United States is eager to pass the bill. In February this year, Uzbek troops were forced to withdraw from the important town of Afjeyevka in Uzbek East. Recently, they failed to attack in Kharkov, Donetsk and other places, losing many settlements and advantageous positions. Due to insufficient ammunition, several combat brigades of the Ukrainian army have withdrawn from their positions. President Zelensky of Ukraine, Commander in Chief of the armed forces Sergei and other high-level officials frequently said that the Ukrainian army was facing serious difficulties and was eager for the United States to pass the aid appropriation bill.

Faced with the change of the battlefield situation, the United States is worried that if it is unable to resume its military assistance to Ukraine, its dominance on this issue may be seriously weakened. Some European countries, worried about the prospect of the US election and realistic consideration of achieving their own strategic goals, have taken over the "baton" during the "cut-off period" of US military aid and become the main force of aid to Uzbekistan. At the beginning of this year, Britain, Germany and France signed security agreements with Uzbekistan, reiterating their commitment to aid Uzbekistan; The EU has adopted a 50 billion euro aid plan for Ukraine and led the formation of an international "artillery alliance", which is expected to provide 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine this year. These actions prompted the US "pro Ukraine faction" to push forward the proposal for Uzbekistan aid to vote and accelerate the adoption of the proposal, so as to show its determination to its allies.

Although the resumption of US military aid has increased Ukraine's confidence, some analysts believe that it will only help Ukraine to turn the war around and will only prolong the duration of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Not surprisingly, the US military aid provisions this time included private goods. The bill does not list the specific types and quantities of weapons, which leaves room for the US government to flexibly "regulate" its assistance to Ukraine. In the past two years and more, the United States has been adjusting and controlling the weapons and equipment and quantity of aid to Ukraine according to the trend of the battlefield, trying to control the rhythm of the war situation, continue to consume and weaken Russia, and this practice will continue in the future. At the same time, the United States wants to take this opportunity to further test the bottom line of Russia's tolerance and try to break the upper limit of military aid. It is reported that the United States has recently provided Ukraine with an army tactical missile system with a range of 300 kilometers for the first time, once again breaking through the restriction previously set by the United States for Ukraine that "it is not allowed to attack Russia with aid weapons".

It is generally believed that the US assistance will be difficult to deliver in the short term. The bill allocates US $23.2 billion to directly withdraw weapons from the US Department of Defense inventory and fill the resulting gaps. However, in fact, restricted by factors such as transportation capacity, storage conditions, and the stability of its own inventory, it is difficult for the US military to quickly deliver aid weapons. Another 13.8 billion US dollars will be used by the US government to purchase weapons and equipment from arms dealers to assist Uzbekistan. Due to the great uncertainty of the production capacity of US military enterprises, delivery is expected to take months or even years. Except for the first batch of US $1 billion worth of aid weapons approved by US President Biden on April 24, which can be delivered to Ukraine relatively quickly, the rest are expected to be delivered through multiple batches of production and transportation.

The fact that the Ukrainian army's counteroffensive has been frustrated in succession has fully proved that with some advanced weapons and equipment alone, it is impossible to fundamentally break the balance of power between Russia and Ukraine and reverse the battlefield situation. In particular, the Uzbek army is also facing problems such as shortage of troops. Even if military aid is in place in the future, whether it can be translated into actual combat effectiveness still needs to be questioned.

At present, both Russia and Ukraine focus on each other's energy, military and other infrastructure. According to some analysts, as the United States and the West provide Ukraine with precision strike weapons with a longer range, the scope of Ukraine's attack on targets in Russia will be further expanded. The Russian army is also deploying a new "northern" group army to prepare a more fierce attack. It can be seen that the so-called aid of the United States, mixed with selfishness, is like "saving the fire by holding the salaries", which will not help ease the tension of the Ukrainian crisis, but will make the war between Russia and Ukraine burn longer and longer. (Xie Siqiang Author's unit: Institute of War Studies, Academy of Military Sciences)