On July 29, many varieties of commodity futures were floating green in the morning trading. Affected by the decline of egg spot at the weekend, the main contract of egg futures fell by more than 4%, agriculture products Differentiation, Zheng Mian fell more than 2%, cotton yarn fell more than 1%, starch and sugar rose nearly 1%; Energy and chemical sector saw gains and losses, with ethylene glycol up more than 2%, Zheng You up more than 1%, PTA, rubber and glass down more than 1%; The black sector fell, while the thread and hot roll fell by more than 1%; Weak nonferrous metals, Shanghai zinc Up, Shanghai lead , Shanghai tin Go down.
By the end of the afternoon trading, ethylene glycol had risen 2.47%, Shanghai Zinc had risen 1.3%, Zheng You had risen 1.08%, and starch had risen 1.11%; In terms of decline, eggs fell 4.01%, PTA fell 1.78%, Zheng Mian fell 2.02%, rubber fell 1.43%, thread fell 1.19%, wire fell 1.03%, hot coil fell 1.06%, and glass fell 1%.
Egg spot prices fell again at the weekend, and futures prices fell sharply with the wind
There are two reasons for the decline of spot goods. One is that the early market expected that the impact of classical swine fever would lead to the substitution of eggs for pork. With the increase of market speculation, the enthusiasm for hoarding eggs was high, and the spot price rose sharply, which led to an overdraft. However, for fresh varieties that are not easy to preserve, hot summer days will cause more bad eggs, The gradual outflow of this part of low-quality goods has a greater negative impact on the price and market mentality in the short term; Second, since this year, the industry has expected egg prices to perform better this year, and the situation of supplementation has gradually improved. This part of supply will be gradually reflected in August and September. As a whole, the supply of commercial chicken fry for large breeder farms increased slightly, while that for small and medium-sized breeder farms increased significantly.
Looking ahead to the future, GF Futures believes that with the sharp decline of spot at the end of July, the traditional seasonal rise of spot in August will still exist, but according to past experience, the deviation between the future and the present often occurs in August and September, that is, the spot may not follow the rise of futures. For the 09 contract, the final futures closing price anchored by the market will be at the end of September, when it is already in the seasonal decline after the peak season of the Mid Autumn Festival, and the center of gravity of the spot price is expected to be lower than 4000 points. Therefore, it is suggested to continue to arrange empty orders in 09 at every height.
Weak demand, difficult to return to PTA, short-term continuous weakness
From the supply side, the restart and maintenance of PTA maintenance device are parallel, and the 4.5 million ton plant of Fuhua Industry and Trade Co., Ltd Ningbo Yisheng 650000 ton unit was restarted at weekends and at the end of the month; The 2.2 million ton unit of Hengli Petrochemical, 600000 ton unit of Hanbang Petrochemical, 350000 ton unit of Yizheng Chemical Fiber and 1.4 million ton unit of Huabin Petrochemical are expected to be overhauled in the near future, and the spot market of mainstream suppliers has sold off a large number of spot goods. On the demand side, polyester still maintained the pattern of production reduction, and the overall performance of downstream production and sales was sluggish. The probability of polyester commencement decreasing is high, and the terminal weaving enterprises' commencement declining steadily, the momentum of receiving orders is weakened, and the market is still waiting for substantive orders.
On the whole, PTA prices continue to remain weak, and the core of PTA's current trend lies in the situation of hedging and the pace of large factory shipments. Pay attention to the impact of the basis trend on the market in the short term, and wait and see in operation for the time being.
