Tianfeng Securities According to the research report released GCL Technology (03800) With a "buy" rating, it is estimated that the revenue from 2024-2026 will be 28.7 billion yuan, 32.4 billion yuan and 34 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.5 billion yuan, 3 billion yuan and 3.8 billion yuan. Considering that the market share of the company's subsequent granular silicon is expected to continue to increase by virtue of its cost advantage, and the perovskite option is superimposed, the target price is 1.53-2.03 Hong Kong dollars/share.

The main viewpoints of Tianfeng Securities are as follows:

Ten years of sharpening, focusing on granular silicon business

Founded in 2006 and listed in Hong Kong in November 2007, the company is one of the largest polysilicon manufacturers in the world. The company mainly has two major businesses, namely, photovoltaic materials and photovoltaic power stations. In 22 years, in order to focus on strengthening resources to develop the core business of polysilicon materials, the company reduced the shareholding ratio of GCL New Energy Company corresponding to the power station business to 7.44%; In 23 years, the company completely withdrew from the field of rod silicon and focused on granular silicon.

The market share of excess granular silicon based on low cost and high quality is increasing significantly, and it is expected to achieve 30% in 25 years

In the context of demand side carbon neutrality, the new installed capacity of global PV is growing rapidly. According to the expected installed capacity of 823GW in 2026, assuming the capacity ratio of 1.3, the silicon consumption is expected to drop to 1.8g/w, corresponding to the demand for silicon materials of 1.93 million tons. The supply side - photovoltaic manufacturing link is rapidly expanding. CAPIA estimates that the production capacity of silicon materials will exceed 2.1 million tons in 24 years, so This line It is expected that the overall supply of silicon material will be relatively surplus in the next 2-3 years.

In the downward cycle of silicon material price, low product cost&high quality is the way to break the situation

Based on its cost advantage - lower power consumption, the cost of granular silicon is reduced by 14 yuan/kg (the power consumption of rod silicon vs. granular silicon is 57 and 13.8 kwh/kg Si); The problem of "hydrogen jump" at the quality end has been basically solved. The content of metal impurities is close to that of rod silicon, and the company has accounted for more than 20% of the supply of N-type silicon materials from domestic suppliers. It is expected that the subsequent permeability will increase significantly (4% in 21 years → 17% in 23 years → 30% in 25 years).

The leading orders of granular silicon are continuously signed, and the superposition of CCZ improves the efficiency of crystal pulling

The difficulty of granular silicon lies in its purity control, and the current solution has been patented by REC (Tianhong Ruike has been authorized) and the company, so the patent barrier determines that it is difficult for the granular silicon industry to have new competitors in the short term. The nominal capacity of the company at the end of 24 years was 500000 tons, and the technology came from independent research and development+acquisition of SunEdison. The bank believed that the company was a well deserved leader in granular silicon. Recently, a three-year procurement contract of 425000 tons was signed with Longji, a leading silicon chip company, which is conducive to the rapid increase of market share.

At the same time, the CCZ process can achieve continuous production for the crystallization process of downstream customers, but it needs raw materials with smaller particle size and better liquidity, and granular silicon is more suitable for it. The resistivity of silicon rod produced by CCZ+granular silicon is more uniform (the advantage is more obvious under the N-type trend), and the output of a single furnace is 20%+higher than that of RCZ.

In 23 years, the efficiency of perovskite components has been significantly improved, and the GW production line has laid a foundation

Perovskite battery as the third generation new type solar energy The battery can further improve the photoelectric conversion efficiency and has broad prospects. Through the acquisition of Xiamen Weihua's 45% stake in GCL Optoelectronics, the company has continuously improved the efficiency of perovskite components over the past 23 years. The efficiency of the latest single junction components has reached 19.04%, and the efficiency of laminated components has reached 26.36%. At the end of 23 years, the company officially entered the era of GW level commercial operation.