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The oil sector fell sharply. PetroChina and Sinopec both fell by more than 4%. The energy ETF (159930), which only includes 24 oil and coal stocks, bucked the market and fell by nearly 2%. Is there a chance to reverse the trend?

The interface has Lianyun 2024-04-29 15:38 2.0w Read

As of 13:54 on April 29, 2024, the CSI Energy Index (000928) had dropped 1.77%. In terms of constituent stocks, gains and losses were mixed, Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) led the rise of 4.83%, and Huaibei Mining (600985) rose by 3.13%, Yongtai Energy (600157) rose 1.49%; PetroChina (601857) led the decline by 4.21%, while COSL (601808) fell by 4.13%, SINOPEC (China Petrochemical Corporation (600028) fell 3.98%. Energy ETF (159930) fell 1.88%, the latest quotation was 1.46 yuan, and the intraday turnover reached 44.1154 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 10.16%.

Image source: Wind

In the long run, as of April 26, 2024, the energy ETF has increased by 4.78% in recent January. In terms of capital inflow, there were 7 days of net capital inflow in the energy ETF in the last 10 trading days, totaling 61.1421 million yuan of "cash absorption", with an average daily net inflow of 6.1142 million yuan.

On the news side, according to Wind data, as of April 26, 24 of the 27 constituent stocks in the coal index had disclosed the situation in 2023. According to statistics, the proposed dividend amount of these 24 listed coal enterprises reached 106.227 billion yuan, of which, China Shenhua Ranked first with a dividend of 44.903 billion yuan; Shaanxi Coal Industry and Yankuang Energy Ranked second and third, with dividends of 12.749 billion yuan and 11.085 billion yuan respectively. This year, the coal industry continued the trend of high dividends, among which China Shenhua is still the leader without any doubt, Shaanxi Coal Industry and Yankuang Energy ranked second and third respectively, China Coal Energy Lu'an Huanneng And Shanxi Coking Coal followed, with dividends of about 5 billion yuan.

Guosheng Securities said that the core reason for this round of coal plate's rise since late August 2023 is that "the bottom of coal price in the off-season is far higher than the market expectation, rather than the expectation of sharp rise of coal price". Different from 2021~2022 (sharp rise in coal price → sharp increase in profits of coal enterprises → stock price rising with performance), in 2023, under the background of downward movement of coal price center and general decline in profits of coal enterprises, the performance of the coal sector is still outstanding, and has recorded positive earnings for five consecutive years. In essence, in the process of transforming a growth economy into a mature economy, the decision-making model that used to rely on capital expenditure to drive the growth of net profits in all walks of life has shifted to pay more attention to the return on investment of input-output; The pricing mechanism of the capital market will also change from the past simple net profit single indicator to the free cash flow that pays more attention to shareholder returns. The valuation of cycle shares is expected to transfer from the decline of valuation in the mature period to the rise of valuation again.

The number of constituent stocks of the CSI 800 Energy Index is only 24, with coal content of 60% and oil content of 40%. Against the backdrop of the rising high dividend sector, the number of outstanding stocks is more than 28%, with PetroChina and Sinopec accounting for more than 28%, and the number of top five stocks including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal Industry and CNOOC accounting for more than 62%! The top ten heavyweight stocks accounted for more than 78%!

Source: official website of China Securities Index

Seize the great opportunity of traditional energy, layout the classic high dividend plate, and the related product energy ETF (159930), which only includes 24 coal shares+oil shares, a rare variety in the whole market!

The energy ETF closely tracks the CSI Energy Index, in order to reflect the overall performance of the securities of companies in different industries in the CSI 800 index sample, and provide investors with analytical tools, the CSI 800 index sample is divided into 11 primary industries and 35 secondary industries according to the classification of the CSI industry, and then the index is compiled with all the securities entering the primary and secondary industries as samples to form the CSI 800 industry index.

Risk tip: The fund has risks, so investment should be cautious. Investors should read the Fund Contract, Prospectus, Product Data Summary and other legal documents, understand the risk return characteristics of the fund, especially the unique risks, and judge whether it is suitable for their own risk tolerance according to their own investment purpose, investment experience, asset status, etc. The Fund Manager promises to manage and use the Fund's assets in the principle of honesty, credit, prudence and responsibility, but does not guarantee that the Fund will not lose its profits or principal. The energy ETF belongs to the medium risk level (R4) product, which is suitable for investors who are aggressive (C4) and above after the evaluation of customer risk level. The individual stocks mentioned in the article are only objective demonstration and enumeration of the constituent stocks of the index. The information presented in this article is only for reference, and investors must be responsible for any discretionary investment behavior. Any opinion, analysis and prediction in this article does not constitute any form of investment advice for readers. The underlying index does not fully represent the entire stock market. The average return of the underlying index component stocks may deviate from the average return of the entire stock market. Investors should pay attention to the risk of indexation investment and the holding risk of concentrated investment in the constituent stocks of the CSI 800 Energy Index. Investors should pay attention to the risk of heavy equity and high concentration of some index components. Investors should pay attention to the risk of indexation investment, ETF operation risk, the unique risk of investing in specific varieties, and participation in transfer Accommodation Risks of securities lending business, etc.

Source: Lianyun in the interface

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