The death of the president and foreign minister has limited practical impact on Iran's internal and foreign affairs

According to CCTV News, on the morning of May 20 local time, after Iranian officials confirmed that Iranian President Lehi had attended the inauguration ceremony of a dam in East Azerbaijan Province, the helicopter he was taking crashed on his way back to Tabriz, including all the people on board, including Iran's Foreign Minister Abdullahian, the governor of East Azerbaijan Province and others, were killed.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei expressed condolences for the death of Iranian President Lehi, Foreign Minister Abdullahian and other senior officials in the helicopter accident.

Was the incident a simple accident or was it premeditated? What impact will it have on Iran's internal political situation and the situation in the Middle East? The former editor in chief of Sina News invited Li Shaoxian, an expert on Middle East issues, to analyze the following issues.

Former Editor in Chief of Sina News: Iranian President Lehi and Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullahian were killed in a helicopter accident on the 19th. At present, there are many speculations about the cause of the accident. What is the possible view on the "murder" mentioned in the current public opinion?

Li Shaoxian: From the perspective of accident, there are three possibilities for the death of Iranian President Lehi: first, pilot misoperation; The first is the mechanical failure of the helicopter. The Bell 212 helicopter is an old model, which was manufactured by the United States in the 1970s. Iran lacks the helicopter's operation and maintenance parts due to the sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran for more than 40 years; First, the weather. It can be seen from the search and rescue that the crash site had bad weather and heavy fog.

There were three planes in President Leahy's trip, and the other two returned safely. It was precisely the President's plane that had an accident, which caused many people to speculate. Some media have speculated whether there will be vandalism or murder. At present, Iran has not made a statement in this regard. Iran officially confirmed that the helicopter of President Lehi of Iran crashed on his way back to Tabriz after he attended the inauguration ceremony of a dam in East Azerbaijan Province. President Aliyev of Azerbaijan also participated in the event, and the itinerary was open.

Assuming that the possibility of man-made destruction is not excluded, it may be possible to maneuver the helicopter while Leahy is attending the ceremony and waiting for the return journey. This speculation is directly related to the current situation in the Middle East. Since the Palestinian Israeli conflict, Iran has been on the cusp of the storm. In particular, the conflict between Iran and Israel last month almost led to war, including Israeli air strikes on Iran's embassy in Syria, and Iran's strikes against Israeli targets. In Azerbaijan and East Azerbaijan Province of Iran, Israel has relatively frequent activities.

Former Editor in Chief of Sina News: What is the position of Iranian President Leahy in Iran's political arena? How much does it affect the current situation?

Li Shaoxian: The full name of Iran is the Islamic Republic of Iran. The supreme leader is the most authoritative figure in the Iranian government, Ali Khamenei, who controls the direction of the country and decides on major policies; The President of Iran is the highest executive head of the national government, that is, the executor of the major policy, and has limited practical influence on Iran's internal affairs and diplomacy.

In short, The President is the executor, not the policy maker Or it can be compared to that the president is the general manager, but not the chairman. The death of President Leahy has limited influence on Iran's major policies, and cannot be compared to such roles as the President of the United States and the President of Russia. Therefore, the incident has limited impact on the situation in the Middle East, the Palestine Israel conflict, and even the US Iraq relations.

Since the President and Foreign Minister were killed at the same time, Iran is now facing an extraordinary period of government. The president in office died abnormally, which is the first time since the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979. According to the Iranian Constitution, the president died abnormally, and the first vice president acted as president with the approval of the supreme leader. Now it is in this state.

According to Article 131 of the Iranian Constitution, if the President dies, is removed, resigns, is absent, or has been ill for more than two months, or if the term of office of the President ends and a new President is not elected for some reason, the First Vice President of Iran shall assume the power and functions of the President with the approval of the Supreme Leader. The committee composed of the Speaker of the Islamic Parliament, the Minister of Justice and the First Vice President of Iran is obliged to arrange the election of a new president within a maximum of 50 days. A new government will be formed after the new president is elected, and government departments will return to normal.

The former editor in chief of Sina News: What impact will it have on the situation in the Middle East and the conflict between Iraq and Israel?

Li Shaoxian: President Leahy will not have a great impact on the situation in the Middle East, Iran's foreign policy and the Palestinian Israeli conflict. The new president will form a new government after the election, and there will also be new foreign ministers. Of course, there will be differences in the behavior style of newcomers, but it is well known that Lech is regarded as a hardliner by the outside world. In the current political atmosphere in Iran, the re elected president will also be regarded as a hardliner. In this sense, Iran's regional policy and its policy towards the United States will not change significantly.

Former Editor in Chief of Sina News: What factors should be paid attention to in terms of the growth and position of President Leahy of Iran and Foreign Minister Abdullahian of Iran?

Li Shaoxian: The death of President Leahy has a profound impact on Iranian politics. First, Lech took office in June 2021 and has been in office for nearly three years. Iran has experienced ups and downs in the past three years, including the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the conflict between Palestine and Israel, and the conflict between Iran and Israel. His governance performance in the past three years is commendable; Second, the highest leader of the country, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, recognized him. President Leahy is considered to be one of the most important successors of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, or the most powerful competitor.

Leahy's personal history is excellent in Iranian politics. On the one hand, he has a doctorate in Islamic law. On the other hand, he has worked in the judicial sector for a long time. From the secretary of the basic court to the chief prosecutor of the country's highest judicial leader, he was equivalent to the chief justice of a country before becoming president; Third, the Supreme Leader Khamenei is old and frail, and his successor is on the agenda. Leahy's presidential resume is very competitive.

Foreign Minister Abdullahian of Iran is a professional diplomat. His university is the international relations major of Tehran University, and his long-term resume is in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He went from the director of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs step by step. Abdullahian is particularly familiar with or pays special attention to Middle East affairs. So when new candidates come up in the future, there may be personal differences in these aspects.

Former Editor in Chief of Sina News: Is it a coincidence or a conspiracy that Iran continues to lose political and military leaders abnormally?

Li Shaoxian: Indeed, in recent years, Iran's political and military leaders have suffered frequent abnormal deaths, including the death of Iranian Major General Qasim Suleymani in the US missile attack in 2020, and the killing of Iran's Deputy Defense Minister nuclear expert Fahri Zad by remote control machine gun. I think there are two reasons for these incidents. On the one hand, of course, there are reasons for accidents. For example, the crash of helicopters, the President and the Foreign Minister is probably an accident; On the other hand, more of the abnormal deaths may be man-made murders, attacks and assassinations, especially the Sulaimani incident in 2020.

Why is that? in my submission, Iran is the key target of some national intelligence agencies, and Iran's political, military and nuclear scientific circles are their key targets. In fact, these high-level people will come into their sight.

Former Editor in Chief of Sina News: Recently, several leaders have had accidents to varying degrees, such as Slovakia, Iran, Ghana, etc. What's your opinion on this situation? Will it have a more far-reaching impact?

Li Shaoxian: The world is in a troubled age. The assassination of the Slovak Prime Minister is obviously closely related to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. I would rather believe that the death of Iranian President Lehi and Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullahian was a simple accident, but if it was caused by assassination and others, it was obviously related to the current situation in the Middle East.

It is no accident that many leaders have met with accidents. The world today is really in an eventful period. Under such circumstances, especially those countries in the eye of the storm, as well as their leaders, are indeed at high risk.

Published in: Beijing