The 21st Century Economic Reporter Chen Zhi reports from Shanghai On May 24, the second super long term special treasury bond was issued in the year. According to the issuance results, the bid winning yield of this 20-year super long term special treasury bond with an issuance scale of 40 billion yuan is 2.49%, the full market subscription multiple is 4.34, and the marginal multiple is 1.05.
A private equity fund bond trader told the reporter that compared with the current 20-year bond yield of 2.63%, the bid winning yield of ultra long term special bonds in the same period was relatively low, indicating that the market was very enthusiastic about the subscription of such bonds, which directly lowered its issuance yield.
The reporter noticed that at present, ultra long term special treasury bonds have been issued in succession, which has played an increasingly significant role in optimizing the bond yield curve. For example, as of 14:00 on May 24, the yield of 30-year bonds hovered around 2.575%, which is infinitely close to the bid winning yield of 30-year ultra long term special bonds (2.57%). This also makes the market expect that the yield of the next 20-year treasury bond will be "close" to the bid winning yield of the 20-year ultra long term special treasury bond, which will better optimize the yield curve of the treasury bond.
It is worth noting that the issuance of ultra long term special treasury bonds has also become a hot topic of increasing concern in the financial market. Cheng Zilong, a macro researcher of Industrial Research Corporation, said that the extra long term special treasury bonds in the year had the characteristics of a long issuance window and a small single issuance volume, which had little impact on the liquidity of the financial market in a short time.
In his view, as far as the recent monetary policy operation is concerned, the reverse repo volume of the central bank is at a low level; In terms of institutional investment behavior, after the manual interest supplement was stopped, the non bank system's capital liquidity was relatively abundant and the capital gap was small. In addition, overseas institutions had a strong willingness to allocate interbank deposit receipts, which kept the interbank deposit receipt interest rate at a low level, leading to more abundant market liquidity. Therefore, in the short term, the successive issuance of ultra long term special treasury bonds has limited impact on financial capital liquidity.
Feng Lin, director of the research and development department of Oriental Jincheng, said that this year's issuance cycle of super long term special bonds was relatively long and the issuance rhythm was relatively slow, which helped to smooth the pressure on bond supply in the bond market. In addition, the financial market had expected the pressure on the supply of ultra long term special treasury bonds, and had done a good job in the corresponding subscription fund reserve. Therefore, the issue of ultra long term special treasury bonds in the future will bring limited incremental negative impact to the bond market.
To further optimize the yield curve of national debt
The above-mentioned private fund bond traders believe that the bid winning yield of 20-year super long term special treasury bonds is 2.49%, slightly exceeding market expectations.
"Previously, the central bank's competent media released an article pointing out that 2.5% - 3% may be a reasonable range for the yield of long-term treasury bonds. Therefore, many investment institutions, in combination with the current financial market capital adequacy and the volatility of bond yields, believe that the bid yield of this 20-year ultra long term special treasury bond issue is likely to be slightly higher than 2.5%." He said frankly. Today, the actual bid winning yield is 2.49%, which indicates that many investment institutions are still extending the duration strategy to win higher returns on bond investment, making the 20-year ultra long term special treasury bonds more popular, and the corresponding bid winning yield is lower.
A director of the Bond Allocation Department of Rural Commercial Bank told the reporter that they were considering increasing the holding to maturity allocation of 20-year ultra long term special government bonds, because the allocation of 20-year ultra long term special government bonds can obtain a relatively higher yield performance price ratio compared with the yield of 30-year government bonds of 2.574%.
"However, the specific amount of 20-year ultra long term special treasury bonds allocated by banks still depends on its market transaction activity and liquidity." He pointed out that the amount of 20-year treasury bonds allocated by banks was low before, one reason was that the liquidity of 20-year treasury bonds was not high, which could not meet their requirements for asset liquidity.
The reporter learned that, different from the day of issuance of 30-year ultra long term special treasury bonds on May 17, the prevalence of cross species arbitrage trading led to increased volatility in the price of ultra long term treasury bonds. During the issuance of 20-year ultra long term special treasury bonds on May 24, the bond market was relatively stable, because the bond market generally believed that the issuance of ultra long term special treasury bonds, It will not have a significant impact on financial market liquidity.
According to the aforementioned private equity fund bond trader, in the morning of May 24, some investment institutions once reduced their positions in 10-year treasury bonds and used their funds to subscribe for 20-year ultra long term special treasury bonds to obtain higher returns, which led to a rise in the yield of 10-year treasury bonds to 2.345%. However, with the completion of the issuance of 20-year ultra long term special treasury bonds, Many investment institutions that did not succeed in subscribing to the 10-year treasury bonds have transferred their funds again, making the yield of the latter fall back to around 2.327%.
"This kind of institutional behavior has not caused additional disruption to the bond market," he said. At present, the financial market pays more attention to how the yield of 20-year treasury bonds "approaches" to the bid winning yield of 20-year super long term special treasury bonds, thus further optimizing the yield curve of treasury bonds. After all, affected by the low trading liquidity of 20-year bonds, the yield of 20-year bonds hovered around 2.63%, significantly higher than the yield of 30-year bonds of 2.575%, forming a high upside down situation.
Industry insiders generally believe that with the listing of the 20-year ultra long term special treasury bonds on May 29 to invigorate market trading activity, the yield of the 20-year treasury bonds will soon return to a reasonable range, that is, close to the bid winning yield of the 20-year ultra long term special treasury bonds (2.49%).
Capital liquidity continues to be relatively abundant
With the continuous issuance of ultra long term special treasury bonds, the bond supply has increased. How much impact it will have on the liquidity of the financial market in the future has attracted the attention of the financial market.
CICC's fixed income research team believes that this year's issuance of ultra long term special treasury bonds lasted seven months, with 22 issues in total, and the average single issue size was 45.5 billion yuan. Compared with previous years, this year's issuance rhythm is relatively slower, and the average single period supply impact is also smaller.
Many investment institutions have also noticed that the recent open market operation of the Central Bank has also created a good liquidity environment for the issuance of ultra long term special treasury bonds in succession. This week (May 20-24), the central bank carried out a total of 10 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations. In view of the expiration of 10 billion yuan of reverse repurchase that week, the central bank realized zero withdrawal of funds this week, making the financial market liquidity continue to be relatively comfortable.
"In addition, other factors have relatively low influence on capital liquidity," said the bond trader of the aforementioned private equity fund. For example, the net payment of government bonds this week was 203.46 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous week's 206.03 billion yuan; This week's inter-bank deposit certificate expired 654.6 billion yuan, also lower than the previous week's 7383 yuan, which makes the liquidity of funds remain relatively comfortable in the face of corporate tax payment and other conditions in the near future.
In the view of insiders, this will not only create a good capital environment for the future issuance of ultra long term special bonds and local government bonds, but also reduce the probability of RRR reduction in the future.
Minsheng Bank Wen Bin, the chief economist, believes that in view of the fact that the short-term impact of the issuance rhythm of ultra long term special treasury bonds on the liquidity of financial market funds is significantly lower than expected, the probability of the central bank's implementation of RRR reduction in the short term is decreasing accordingly. In the future, the central bank may increase the amount of funds through MLF (medium-term lending facilities) and OMO (open market operations) to stabilize the volatility of capital.
He pointed out that as far as the net financing amount of government bonds is concerned, the pressure on liquidity of funds during May and October is fair, and the pressure on liquidity of banks may be relatively large due to the low maturity of government bonds from November to December, when the central bank may implement a reduction in reserve requirements.
"At present, considering the pressure of bank debt and the improvement of macro-economy, there is still room for reserve ratio reduction and interest rate reduction in the year, but the specific time point needs to be judged comprehensively by combining the domestic monetary credit environment and the rhythm of monetary policy of other global economies." citic securities Economist Mingming pointed out.
The reporter learned from many sources that, in view of the high attention paid by relevant departments to the matching of capital idling, interest rates of ultra long term treasury bonds and macroeconomic growth expectations, the probability of the relevant departments to reduce the reserve ratio only to match the issuance of ultra long term special treasury bonds in the short term is relatively small. In the future, when the relevant departments will take measures to reduce the reserve ratio and interest rate mainly depends on factors such as China's economic recovery and when the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will turn.
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