◎ Reporter Zhao Mingchao
In the past two years, the PV sector has fluctuated downward. Stimulated by the favorable policy news, the PV sector rebounded strongly on May 22, but was adjusted the next day. How to interpret the future market of photovoltaic plate under the situation of severe shock at the bottom? From the institutional point of view, with the gradual implementation of favorable policies, the industry inventory is expected to accelerate clearing, and the price is expected to rebound. We are optimistic that the PV sector will stabilize and repair the market.
On May 22, stimulated by favorable policies, the PV sector showed a strong performance, and the PV industry index rose nearly 5%.
In the afternoon of May 17, under the guidance of the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, China Photovoltaic Industry Association organized and held a "Symposium on High Quality Development of Photovoltaic Industry" in Beijing Trina Solar Energy GCL Technology Jinko Energy Longji Lvneng Tongwei Shares 、 Daquan Energy Energy Research Institute of National Development and Reform Commission, China Development Bank Industrial Bank PV enterprises and relevant units attended the meeting.
The first quarter report of listed companies in 2024 shows that the performance of many leading photovoltaic listed companies is under pressure, and the operating situation of second and third tier photovoltaic enterprises is more severe. The purpose of this meeting is to discuss the current problems and causes faced by the photovoltaic industry as well as the countermeasures to guide the orderly development of the industry.
"Judging from the strong performance of the market after the official release of the news, the decline of the photovoltaic sector has basically come to an end. At least from the chip structure, the investors who are not optimistic have basically left the market. Next, with the gradual implementation of favorable policies, the photovoltaic sector will enter a consolidation and recovery state." A private equity fund manager in Shanghai analyzed.
How to view the future market opportunities of photovoltaic sector, institutions generally believe that if the policy strongly promotes the supply side reform, the industry is expected to usher in a round of repair market.
Huaxia Fund said that the PV sector has weakened for two consecutive years, mainly due to the intensification of internal competition in the industry. The meeting held on May 17 was aimed at dealing with the excessive "internal volume" of the industry and the decline in the price of the industry chain. The government hopes to guide the positive development of the industry and combat vicious competition.
In the view of Huaxia Fund, from the perspective of supply and demand in the photovoltaic industry, the demand side is relatively stable, and the trend of steady growth in demand throughout the year remains unchanged; On the supply side, with the industry taking the initiative to clear up, corporate profits are expected to rise at the bottom. Any marginal change at the bottom stage of the industry may make the market respond in advance by raising valuation first and then profitability, which may eventually lead to a double rise in valuation and profitability.
From the perspective of the industrial chain, Huaxia Fund believes that the price of silicon materials is catching up quickly in the near future, which is expected to weaken the game of the industrial chain, release the terminal demand, and release the demand of emerging markets. The distributed demand is expected to increase thanks to the reduction of module price, the rise of PV grid connection price and the Indian household PV subsidy plan.
Tianhong Fund said that from the market performance on May 22, among the PV related sub industries, the PV building integration sector rose the most, indicating that the PV industry market was boosted by the real estate industry, and the recent bright performance of the real estate industry was the PV industry empowerment. From the perspective of photovoltaic enterprises, a number of leading photovoltaic enterprises have disclosed that their orders are sufficient, which will support the further rise of the industry's prosperity.
As for investment opportunities in various PV industry segments, E Fund said that China's PV installation and module exports are growing, but the profitability of main materials is under pressure, and the overall industry opportunities may not emerge until the competition pattern improves. Correspondingly, the revenue of auxiliary materials grew rapidly year on year, and the profit trend of glass, plastic film, support and other directions was good, which deserved attention.
