Recently, a number of mergers and acquisitions have continued to be implemented in the industry, and the market's attention to the securities sector has also risen.
In recent trading days, There was a rather "strange" scene in the A-share brokerage plate: the closing prices of Guotai Jun'an and Huatai Securities were exactly the same for four consecutive trading days from May 8 to 13.
Although it is not ruled out to be purely coincidental, the reporter of the Daily Economic News has noticed that this phenomenon has caused hot discussion among investors on the stock bar in recent days. Many netizens believe that this may be releasing some kind of "merger" signal.
But at present, such speculation is not based on facts.
A number of insiders told reporters that, from a practical perspective, the possibility of mergers and acquisitions between the two brokers is also low.
Shares of Guotai Jun'an and Huatai Securities "crashed" for several consecutive days
On May 8, the closing prices of Guotai Jun'an and Huatai Securities were both 13.71 yuan;
On May 9, the closing prices of both were 13.8 yuan;
On May 10, the closing price was 13.88 yuan;
On May 13, the closing price was 13.95 yuan.
Today, May 14, the closing price finally changed. Guotai Jun'an closed at 13.93 yuan, while Huatai Securities closed at 14.01 yuan.
Trading days with the same closing prices of A shares of two brokers in history
Guotai Jun'an was listed on A-share market in June 2015, while Huatai Securities was listed on A-share market in February 2010. Choice data shows that in more than 2000 trading days since June 2015, only five "crashes" have occurred in the closing prices of A-shares of the two companies, and four of these "crashes" have occurred in recent trading days consecutively, so they are indeed extremely unlikely events.
A netizen commented
The reporter noticed that in recent days, the above situation has caused a lot of attention and discussion on social platforms where investors gather, such as the stock bar. Many investors commented that this may be releasing some kind of "merger" signal.
However, most of the above investors' guesses and comments lack practical basis. The reporter noticed that since last year, many investors have asked Huatai Securities on the interactive platform whether it has plans for mergers and acquisitions.
In this regard, Huatai Securities usually replied on the interactive platform that if there are major issues such as mergers and acquisitions in the future, the company will perform information disclosure in a timely manner in strict accordance with relevant regulations. Up to now, neither Guotai Jun'an nor Huatai Securities has made any announcement about mergers and acquisitions recently.
In a word, the above successive coincidences come to an end today. The above phenomenon is also limited to A shares. The closing prices of H shares of the two companies are different in recent days.
Industry insiders: the possibility of merger between the two securities companies is not high
Under the catalysis of policies, mergers and acquisitions between securities industries have become a major focus of the capital market this year, and it is also the current trend to support leading securities companies to become bigger and stronger through mergers and acquisitions.
However, up to now, some medium-sized securities firms have made substantial mergers and acquisitions in the industry, such as Guolian Securities and Zheshang Securities, which are currently in action.
In the past 30 years, the securities industry as a whole has experienced four rounds of mergers and acquisitions:
1、 1995-2002: "separate operation" M&A tide;
2、 2004-2006: "comprehensive management" M&A tide;
3、 2008-2010: "one participation and one control" M&A boom;
4、 Since 2012: "market-oriented" M&A boom.
Historically, many leading securities companies have seized the policy opportunity to develop and grow through mergers and acquisitions. CITIC Securities is a typical case. Guotai Jun'an and Huatai Securities have also enjoyed M&A dividends in their respective development process. In 1999, Guotai Jun'an Securities was established by Cathay Pacific Securities and Jun'an Securities through new merger, capital increase and share expansion; From 2005 to 2006, Huatai Securities acquired Asia Securities and United Securities.
From the perspective of the industry's M&A history, the largest number of cases is the acquisition of small securities firms by large securities firms. The merger between two large securities companies with similar scale often involves more complicated situations, and there are many failure cases in reality.
For example, in September 2004, CITIC Securities offered to buy GF Securities. At that time, the size of the two brokers was equal. However, this move was resisted by employees of GF Securities, and Shenzhen Jifu Venture Capital Co., Ltd., which was founded by employees of GF Securities, implemented an anti takeover plan. Subsequently, through a series of shareholding increases, the "anti takeover alliance" jointly formed by Liaoning Chengda, Jilin Aodong and Shenzhen Jifu formed an absolute controlling position in GF Securities. In October 2004, CITIC Securities' acquisition plan failed.
In addition, according to media reports, in 2002, there was news in the industry that Guotai Junan would purchase Orient Securities, but under the firm resistance of the then management of Orient Securities, the Shanghai Municipal Financial Working Committee rejected Guotai Junan's plan to purchase Orient Securities.
In addition, even for some successful merger cases, the specific implementation process is not smooth.
For example, after CICC acquired CICC Securities, it experienced a painful period of personnel loss.
At present, the size of Guotai Jun'an and Huatai Securities is also relatively close. In recent years, around the competition for the second position in the industry, the two securities companies have their own winners and losers.
Choice data shows that in the five years from 2018 to 2022, Guotai Jun'an has four years of net profit ranking second in the industry, and from 2021, Huatai Securities has firmly stood third in the industry. However, last year's annual report showed that Huatai Securities had surpassed Guotai Jun'an, and its performance ranked second in the industry. In the first quarter of this year, Guotai Jun'an regained the second place in the industry due to the more decline of Huatai Securities' performance. In addition, in terms of revenue scale, the two brokers are also relatively close in recent years.
On the above phenomenon and the possibility of merger between Guotai Jun'an and Huatai Securities, the non bank chief of a securities firm told reporters, "It is unlikely that there will be a merger between these two securities firms. I have asked many people."
Others in the industry believe that the two securities companies belong to two different state-owned asset systems, with complex internal conditions and high difficulty in integration. In contrast, securities companies under the same state-owned assets system are more likely to merge.
According to the public information, there are Haitong Securities, Guotai Junan, Huaxin Shares and other listed securities companies under the Shanghai SASAC at present; Huatai Securities belongs to Jiangsu SASAC.
