Continue to expand domestic demand and consolidate the foundation for the recovery and development of manufacturing industry

(Data pictures are for reference only)

The latest data from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing shows that in August, the purchasing managers' index of China's manufacturing industry was 49.7%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; The non manufacturing business activity index was 51.0%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but it remained in the expansion range; The comprehensive PMI output index was 51.3%, up 0.2 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises expanded steadily.

This is the third consecutive month that China's manufacturing PMI rebounded. From the perspective of enterprise size, the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises was 50.8%, 49.6% and 47.7% respectively, up 0.5, 0.6 and 0.3 percentage points month on month, showing a trend of common recovery of PMI of large, medium and small enterprises. Among them, the production index and the new order index were 51.9% and 50.2% respectively, up 1.7 and 0.7 percentage points over the previous month, both of which were the highest points in nearly five months, indicating that China's production and demand picked up at the same time, and the expansion was strengthened. The raw material inventory index (48.4%) and the employee index (48.0%) are still below the critical point, but the month on month ratio has improved. It is necessary to consider the obvious lag between these two indexes.

In August, the non manufacturing business activity index was 51.0%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point. The non manufacturing industry continued to expand. From the perspective of industry, the structure is relatively obvious. The business activity index of railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation, catering, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services, ecological protection and public facilities management, culture, sports and entertainment and other industries is in a high boom zone of more than 55.0%. The construction industry is also recovering significantly. The business activity index of the construction industry is 53.8%, 2.6 percentage points higher than last month, The index of new orders in the construction industry was 48.5%, up 2.2 percentage points over the previous month. The business activity index of capital market services, insurance, real estate and other industries is below the critical point. However, with the recent introduction of a series of policies to activate the capital market and a series of policies conducive to the development of the property market, these areas will be significantly improved.

Since the second half of last year, China's manufacturing industry and commerce have been significantly disturbed by the epidemic. During the epidemic, people were unable to go out for contact commercial consumption, but they were able to purchase and store a large number of goods through e-commerce. This phenomenon was more obvious in the United States, resulting in the prosperity of China's manufacturing industry and commodity exports during the epidemic, which also led to an overdraft of commodity consumption. Since the beginning of this year, China has entered the post epidemic era, and people have begun to rush to commercial consumption. Railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation, catering, movies, etc. have rebounded significantly. However, the global manufacturing industry has a huge inventory of goods. Under the influence of commodity consumption overdraft, huge inventory of goods, and consumption diversion, the manufacturing industry has been dragged down. The electronics industry has been hit the most. China is the world's largest electronics producer, which has a significant impact. However, the growth of domestic automobile sales and exports has buffered the pressure on the electronics industry to a considerable extent.

The crisscross cycle of commodity consumption and service consumption makes the economy in a wavy state. This structural "ice and fire" often weakens market confidence. However, according to the data in August, this phenomenon will disappear. First, both production and demand rebounded at the same time, and the purchase volume index rose to 50.5% of the expansion range, 1.0 percentage points higher than last month. The purchase price index of raw materials and the ex factory price index also rose 4.1 and 3.4 percentage points higher than last month, 56.5% and 52.0% respectively; Secondly, the confidence of the service industry is more optimistic, and the expected index of business activities in the service industry is 57.8%, which remains in a high boom range; Third, the construction industry recovered significantly, with the construction business activity index being 53.8%, 2.6 percentage points higher than that of last month. The business activity index of civil engineering construction industry was 58.6%, 4.6 percentage points higher than that of last month; The index of new orders was 52.6%, rising to the expansion range, indicating that the construction progress of infrastructure projects was accelerated.

However, China's economy still needs efforts to get rid of the phenomenon of peak staggering of manufacturing and commercial consumption. For the manufacturing industry, although the global inventory pressure has weakened, the consumption power of Europe and the United States has declined due to high inflation. China still needs to take measures to stimulate domestic demand for goods, especially electronics, automobiles, household appliances, etc., to consolidate the foundation for the recovery and development of the manufacturing industry by expanding domestic demand. Recently, a series of policies have been issued to activate the capital market and boost the sales of the property market in China. In addition, the second half of China's fiscal year will be more efficient, and the monetary policy may be more active, which will help to continue to expand domestic demand, enhance market confidence, and consolidate the foundation of economic recovery growth.

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