China's import and export were basically flat in the first eight months of this year

(Data map)

Statistics released by the General Administration of Customs on September 7 showed that in the first eight months of this year, China's total import and export value was 27.08 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.1% year on year. Among them, the export was 15.47 trillion yuan, up 0.8% year on year; Imports reached 11.61 trillion yuan, down 1.3% year on year; The trade surplus was 3.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.3% year on year.

In August, China's import and export amounted to 3.59 trillion yuan, down 2.5% year on year and up 3.9% month on month. Among them, exports reached 2.04 trillion yuan, down 3.2% year on year and up 1.2% month on month; Imports reached 1.55 trillion yuan, down 1.6% year on year and up 7.6% month on month; The trade surplus was 488 billion yuan, down 8.2% year on year (the same below).

In the first eight months of this year, China's import and export mainly showed the following characteristics:

First, the import and export of general trade increased and its proportion increased. In the first eight months, China's general trade import and export amounted to 17.72 trillion yuan, up 1.7%, accounting for 65.4% of China's total foreign trade, 1.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year.

Second, the import and export to ASEAN increased, and the import from the EU and the United States increased. In the first eight months, exports to ASEAN reached 2.4 trillion yuan, up 2.8%; Imports from the EU reached 1.31 trillion yuan, up 4.3%; Imports from the United States reached 775.26 billion yuan, up 1.6%.

Third, the import and export of domestic enterprises kept growing. In the first eight months, the import and export of private enterprises reached 14.33 trillion yuan, up 6%, accounting for 52.9% of China's total foreign trade, up 3 percentage points over the same period last year. The import and export of state-owned enterprises reached 4.4 trillion yuan, up 0.3%, accounting for 16.2% of China's total foreign trade value.

Fourthly, the export of mechanical and electrical products accounted for nearly 60%, of which the export of automobiles grew strongly. In the first eight months, China exported 8.97 trillion yuan of electromechanical products, up 3.6%, accounting for 58% of the total export value. Among them, automobile export was 442.7 billion yuan, up 104.4%.

Fifth, the import volume of iron ore, crude oil, coal, natural gas, soybeans and other major commodities increased and prices fell. In the first eight months, China imported 776 million tons of iron ore, up 7.4%, and the average import price was 783.6 yuan/ton, down 3.6%; 379 million tons of crude oil, up 14.7%, and the average import price was 4005.7 yuan/ton, down 16.8%; 306 million tons of coal, an increase of 82%, and the average import price was 812.5 yuan/ton, down 20.8%; 77.707 million tons of natural gas, up 9.4%; the average import price was 3762.1 yuan/ton, down 3.3%; Soybean was 71.654 million tons, up 17.9%, and the average import price was 4288.6 yuan/ton, down 1.5%; The refined oil was 30.55 million tons, up 100.1%, and the average import price was 3977.4 yuan/ton, down 25.5%.

"The year-on-year decline of China's total import and export volume in August narrowed, and the month on month turn positive, indicating that demand is in a repair trend. Among them, the improvement of domestic demand is better than that of foreign demand, leading to the narrowing of the trade surplus. In addition, the bottoming out rebound of commodity prices in August has also promoted the improvement of trade volume." Xiao Lina, a macro analyst of Yide Futures, said in an interview that August was in a policy intensive period, The asymmetric reduction of LPR, superimposed on the change of the setting of the real estate based on the change of the supply and demand relationship, and the increase of the driving factors for the stabilization of domestic demand, is expected to accelerate the pace of destocking of domestic industrial enterprises. The enterprise inventory may rise from the bottom at the beginning of the fourth quarter. At the same time, after the actual demand takes effect with the implementation of the policy, the repair of the import decline in the later period is expected to continue. Looking at the short-term policy side, the amount of working capital due in September is large, superimposed on the acceleration of local bond issuance from August to September and the faster than expected landing of LPR reduction in August, as well as the promotion of the reduction of the interest rate of housing loans in stock in the market, it is expected that the RRR reduction will be landing in September to protect the stability of capital.

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