The adverse factors are weakening. In August, China's foreign trade imports and exports showed signs of improvement

September 8 (Reporter Li Chunhui) According to customs statistics, in August this year, China's total import and export value was 3.59 trillion yuan, down 2.5% year on year and up 3.9% month on month. Among them, exports reached 2.04 trillion yuan, down 3.2% year on year and up 1.2% month on month; Imports reached 1.55 trillion yuan, down 1.6% year on year and up 7.6% month on month.

(Data pictures are for reference only)

On the whole, the year-on-year decline of import and export in August narrowed significantly, and the month on month recovery was significant. Foreign trade showed signs of improvement.

Disadvantages are weakening

"The negative impact of the three factors of 'weak external demand, low price and high base' on China's import and export growth is weakening," said Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank. From the perspective of external demand, although the global economic growth continues to slow down, the economic prosperity of the United States and some ASEAN countries has improved, and China's policy support to stabilize foreign demand has promoted the recovery of export growth.

In terms of prices, international commodity prices have stabilized and recovered since August, which has boosted the growth of imports and exports. "It is worth noting that even if the price factor is excluded, China's actual import and export growth rate is still strong. Based on our calculation of the prices of major import and export commodities, after excluding the price factor, China's actual export growth rate in August has narrowed significantly, and the actual import growth rate may have turned positive." Wen Bin said.

From the base, he said that the year-on-year growth rate of China's exports in August last year was significantly lower than that in May July last year, indicating that the high base effect is weakening.

Wu Chaoming, vice president of the Institute of Finance and Information Technology, also believed that the export growth rate of major trading partners in August basically rebounded in an all-round way, including the growth rate of exports to the United States and ASEAN, which showed that the narrowing of export decline in August was not only affected by the low base effect, but also reflected that the drag effect of global demand slowdown was weakened.

Continuous optimization of foreign trade structure

From the situation of the previous eight months, the import and export of general trade increased and the proportion increased. According to customs statistics, in the first eight months, China's general trade import and export amounted to 17.72 trillion yuan, up 1.7%, accounting for 65.4% of China's total foreign trade, 1.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Over the same period, the import and export of processing trade was 4.85 trillion yuan, down 11.3%, accounting for 17.9%.

Wen Bin said that the anti risk ability of general trade is significantly stronger than that of processing trade with "two ends out". Increasing the proportion of general trade is conducive to promoting the stability of the scale of foreign trade and the optimization of the structure.

In terms of key products, in the first eight months, China exported 8.97 trillion yuan of electromechanical products, up 3.6%, accounting for 58% of the total export value. Among them, the automatic data processing equipment and its parts reached 849.27 billion yuan, down 19%; Mobile phones totaled 513.5 billion yuan, down 7.5%; 442.7 billion yuan for automobiles, up 104.4%.

It can be seen that the export of mechanical and electrical products accounts for nearly 60%, of which the export of automobiles continues to maintain a strong growth.

"The transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry is shaping a new momentum of export." Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Orient Jincheng, said that recently China has achieved "curve overtaking" in the field of new energy vehicles, and its share in the global new energy vehicle market, including the European Union and other developed economies, has increased significantly. At the same time, the export of lithium batteries and solar cells also continued to grow rapidly. The above "new three kinds" reflected that the transformation and upgrading of domestic manufacturing industry had a significant role in promoting exports.

The favorable factors will gradually increase in the future

Analysts believe that with the improvement of foreign trade situation in August, the lowest point of year-on-year growth of import and export in July has been basically confirmed. Looking ahead, the favorable factors for China's import and export to continue to improve will gradually increase.

"The global and national manufacturing PMI and other leading indicators show that the downward trend of the overseas economy will improve in the next period of time. Recently, IMF, the World Bank, OECD and other international institutions have raised their forecasts for global economic growth this year. At the same time, the rebound momentum of the global semiconductor and consumer electronics industries in the fourth quarter is expected to further emerge; The year-on-year growth base of China's export continued to decline, and the year-on-year decline of China's export volume in the next few months is expected to continue to narrow. " Wang Qing said.

He believes that in the future, policies and measures for stabilizing the scale and optimizing the structure of foreign trade will be further strengthened, including periodic tax relief for foreign trade enterprises, encouraging innovation in new forms of foreign trade such as cross-border e-commerce and overseas warehouses with inclusive regulation, fully tapping the potential of foreign trade infrastructure such as China EU trains, and accelerating the negotiation process of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements, Creating a more favorable institutional environment for foreign trade exports.

Wu Chaoming believes that in the face of the pressure of geopolitical risks on the stability of the global industrial chain supply chain, China's entire industrial chain and cost advantages will form a certain support for the domestic export share. In addition, in recent years, China's trade partners have continued to expand and trade structure has continued to optimize, effectively improving China's ability to cope with global supply chain and market fluctuations, or forming a certain support for export shares.

In terms of imports, analysts said that with the introduction of a series of policies to stabilize growth, market expectations continue to improve, and the momentum of domestic economic recovery is expected to strengthen, which will boost the marginal recovery of import demand.

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