Global Today News January's "surge" of credit became the prelude to economic recovery

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Times Comments on Zhou Zixun

Recently, from the resumption of work and production in all walks of life to the booming supply and demand in the consumer market, from the continuous growth of foreign trade orders to the substantial increase of residents' travel... More and more facts show that China's economy is on the road to recovery.

As a leading indicator of the economy, China's credit growth achieved a "good start" in January, and the signal of economic recovery has been established. According to the data of the Central Bank, in January, the increase of social financing scale was 5.98 trillion yuan, the highest since January 2022; RMB loans increased by 4.9 trillion yuan, hitting a record high in credit supply in a single month; The balance of broad money (M2) increased 12.6% year on year, the highest level since the middle of 2016.

The acceleration of monetary growth in January, to some extent, reflects the strong support of sound monetary policy for stable growth. The main bank credit work forum held on January 10 has clearly defined the policy orientation of "moderately relying on forward efforts". From the perspective of credit structure, the increase in monetary growth is mainly due to the substantial increase in corporate credit scale. It can be seen that loans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 4.68 trillion yuan, including 3.5 trillion yuan increase in medium - and long-term corporate loans and 412.7 billion yuan decrease in bill financing. The reason is nothing more than the policy driven and the impact of concentrated investment by commercial banks at the beginning of the year, which promoted the strong growth of corporate loans in January, especially medium and long-term loans (corporate medium and long-term loans increased by 1.4 trillion yuan over the same period last year), indicating that credit was more used for fixed asset investment in January, and medium and long-term investment further recovered under the policy, It has become an important support for accelerating economic recovery.

One change worth noting is that the increase in money supply did not effectively boost the growth of the new scale of social financing in January. The increase in the scale of social financing was 5.98 trillion yuan, 195.9 billion yuan less than the same period last year, which undoubtedly shows that the endogenous power and vitality of China's economic development are still insufficient. It should be noted that compared with the sharp increase in corporate loans, household loans in January increased by 257.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 585.8 billion yuan. Household deposits increased by 6.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 790 billion yuan year-on-year. On the one hand, the increase of deposits and the decrease of loan increment in the residential sector reflect that the endogenous power of the overall financial demand is still weak. At present, due to the unstable expectations of the residential sector, consumption and investment intentions are reduced. On the other hand, it shows that the current increase in monetary and social financing scale is mainly driven by policy.

From the price index in January, CPI rose 2.1% year on year, higher than 1.8% in December last year; PPI fell 0.8% year on year, 0.1 percentage point more than that of last month. Obviously, inflation pressure is still in a controllable range and will not become a constraint of recent loose monetary policy. Whether the expansion of credit scale in the future can be sustained depends on the reversal of market expectations and the continuous strengthening of macro policies.

In general, the scissors gap between the monetary growth rate and the social finance growth rate continued to expand in January, which means that credit recovery and expected recovery still need time. In the future, we should deepen reform, constantly promote the adjustment of credit structure, steadily and orderly prevent and resolve risks, and play an important role in serving the high-quality development of the real economy. Therefore, the focus of credit supply this year needs to be more inclined to private enterprises, to accelerate the implementation of private investment projects, to boost the confidence of private enterprises and stimulate market vitality; Boost the credit demand of the household sector and release the consumption potential of residents; Substantial improvement of credit demand was achieved through investment in advanced manufacturing, infrastructure, scientific and technological innovation, modern service industry, ecological environment protection, urban function improvement and other aspects.

label: Economic recovery