Hot: Spring Festival big data to see China's economic trend in 2023

China Telecom (601728) integrates operator, Internet and industrial economic data, analyzes the industrial development status during the Spring Festival (January 7, 2023 February 5, 2023), and looks forward to the economic trend in 2023.

[Data Map]

During the 2023 Spring Festival, China's economic situation will continue to rise

The optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and the peak and fall of epidemic situation have created conditions for economic recovery during the Spring Festival, significantly improved the mobility of the population throughout the country, and a number of industries have released positive signals. We comprehensively analyzed the data of industrial manufacturing, information service, commercial retail, rural agriculture, tourism and transportation. The economic index of the Spring Festival increased by 5.2% year on year compared with that during the 2022 Spring Festival, and the indicators of the five major industries were all improved. The comprehensive economic level was positive and ushered in a strong recovery.

(Radar Chart of Spring Festival Economic Index)

Spring Festival Economic Index Index System

The Spring Festival economic index system, based on historical industry characteristics and future industry development trends, ensures the continuity and foresight of data, focuses on five core industries of industrial manufacturing, information services, commercial retail, rural agriculture, tourism and transportation, and extracts 25 sub scenarios as secondary indicators from multiple dimensions such as population migration, infrastructure, and industrial development, And optimize and adjust according to the development characteristics and trends of big data indicators during the Spring Festival and in the future, and use the weighted average method to measure and fully reflect the overall development level of China's economy during the 2023 Spring Festival.

(Index system diagram)

Industrial manufacturing has generally recovered, industrial scale has continued to grow, and radiation effect has increased

According to the data released by the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on January 31, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry in January was 50.1%, returning to the expansion range, up 3.1% month on month, and the prosperity level of industrial manufacturing also improved significantly.

Through operators and Internet big data, during the Spring Festival, the average travel radius of people working in key industrial parks was 18.6 km, up 10.3% year on year. This shows that industrial manufacturing has a larger radiation range and greater influence on the surrounding economy. After the resumption of work on January 28, the number of people returning to the industrial park increased day by day. The average daily number of people returning to work increased by 11.5%, 74.2% year on year, and the number of commuters in the commuter circle around Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou Foshan increased by 6.4% year on year. The speed of return to work and the scale of cross city commuting increased, and the impact of the epidemic on work was significantly weakened.

In the direction of sustainable development, China Telecom actively promotes smart energy conservation of 5G base stations. In January 2023, it will save 73 million kilowatt hours of electricity and reduce 42500 tons of carbon emissions, an increase of 7.1% month on month, effectively driving green development of the industrial economy.

Based on the above data, the Spring Festival economic index of industrial manufacturing increased by 20.2% year on year.

(Radar Chart of Spring Festival Economic Index of Industrial Manufacturing)

The scale of information service infrastructure has expanded, and the vitality of industrial applications has rebounded

The information service industry will play an important role in the construction of industrial Internet, and the communication infrastructure will promote the integration of digital economy and real economy in the development of digitalization and modernization. By the Spring Festival of 2023, the coverage of 5G base stations of telecommunications has increased by 46.0% year on year in February last year, covering all cities and counties and key towns, accelerating the construction of "dual gigabit" networks, with 10GPON ports growing by 68.0% year on year in February last year, covering more than 300 cities, and steadily increasing investment in communication infrastructure.

In terms of the activity of information service applications, the net increase of telecom 5G mobile users during the Spring Festival was 52.9% year on year, the net increase of broadband billing users was 5.2% year on year, and the net increase of mobile Internet traffic was 11.2% year on year, of which the video and entertainment traffic accounted for the highest proportion.

(Top 5 histogram of APP users)

Based on the above data, the Spring Festival economic index of information services increased by 36.7% year on year.

(Information Service Spring Festival Economic Index Radar Chart)

Commercial retail continued to rise, shopping demand was boosted, and offline consumption scenarios increased significantly

According to the latest VAT invoice data of the State Administration of Taxation, the sales revenue of the national consumption related industries during the Spring Festival holiday this year increased by 12.2% year on year compared with the Spring Festival holiday last year. According to the big data of operators and the Internet, offline consumption became the brightest growth point of consumption during the Spring Festival this year. During the Spring Festival, the business circle received 3.29 billion person times, an increase of 4.1% year on year. The offline economic recovery in Chengdu, Chongqing and Wuhan was particularly obvious.

(Top 5 growth rate of person times received by urban business districts)

In terms of online consumption, it still maintained a steady growth momentum. The number of consumer APP users increased by 73% compared with last year during the Spring Festival. People are more willing to spend time online consumption. At the same time, during the Spring Festival, the number of users who changed their mobile phones increased by 1.5% compared with last year, and online consumption with new mobile phones was more convenient.

With the implementation of the guidance of cities around the country on night economic development, from 18:00 to 6:00 the next day, the average number of base stations per person has reached 114, an increase of 39.0% over the previous year. Night activity has significantly improved, and the night economic development has achieved initial results.

Based on the above data, the Spring Festival economic index of commercial retail increased 26.1% year on year.

(Radar chart of Spring Festival economic index of commercial retail)

The return of rural agricultural labor force, the steady improvement of living standards, and positive industrial development

Analyzing the big data of agriculture and rural areas, the proportion of working age men was 60.98%, up 6.33% year on year, and the proportion of working age women was 64.81%, up 8.68% year on year. More and more workers are willing to return to the countryside and build the countryside, making the countryside full of vitality.

(Pie chart of rural age structure)

In terms of rural economic development, the price of agricultural products rose 3.9% month on month, and the number of people above the medium level of consumption accounted for 14.5%, up 9.9% year on year. The traditional agricultural industry still has potential. Rural tourism economy has been vigorously developed. During the Spring Festival, rural tourism reached 46.02 million people, an increase of 35.8% year on year. The average travel radius of rural residents reached 9.8 kilometers, an increase of 8.2% year on year. The industry has actively transformed and the rural economy has entered a multipolar development state.

(The number of rural tourists is top 5 in districts and counties)

Based on the above data, the economic index of rural agriculture during the Spring Festival increased by 13.1% year on year.

(Radar chart of economic index of rural agriculture during the Spring Festival)

Tourism traffic rebounded from the bottom, liquidity was greatly improved, and travel volume ushered in a peak in recent years

After the release of the "new ten" policy for epidemic prevention and control, the tourism market has experienced a strong recovery, and the number of population migration has increased significantly, reaching the peak in nearly three years. During the Spring Festival, the number of tourists increased by 24.8% year on year, and the reception of scenic spots above 4A in China increased by 19.9% year on year. The tourism market is thriving, which is the best holiday since 2022.

(Top 10 popular 4A and above scenic spots)

In terms of population migration, the provinces with a concentration of migrant workers across the provinces saw a large-scale net outflow of people before the festival, such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and other coastal economic provinces. The five provinces (cities) with the largest net outflow of personnel before the festival saw a 14.1% increase in the cumulative outflow compared with the same period last year.

(Curve of net outflow rate of population from major provinces during the Spring Festival)

As of February 5, 1.185 billion passengers were sent during the Spring Festival travel nationwide, with 39.5 million passengers sent daily, up 50.5% year on year. In addition, the average travel time increased by 34.2% year on year, and the average number of travel cities was 2.4, an increase of 16.2% year on year. In the Spring Festival of 2023, the city activity (the number of base stations per person on average) will increase by 24.6% year on year, people's travel enthusiasm will be high, and population mobility will be greatly improved.

Based on the above data, the economic index of tourism transportation during the Spring Festival increased by 23.9% year on year compared with the same period in the lunar calendar.

(Radar chart of economic index of tourism and transportation during the Spring Festival)

After rain, China's economy will continue to blossom

In 2022, we overcame multiple risks such as lower market expectations, the COVID-19 epidemic, and complex international situations, and delivered an excellent answer that the GDP exceeded 121 trillion yuan, an increase of 3%.

In 2023, the Spring Festival big data shows that population mobility has increased, tourist arrivals have rebounded, the new generation of information infrastructure has strengthened, and economic diversification has improved. We have reason to believe that China's economy will continue to bloom!

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