Hot comments! Credit hit a record "good start" in January as scheduled

Securities Times reporter He Jueyuan

On February 10, the financial statistics and social financing data of January 2023 released by the People's Bank of China showed that the credit growth in January achieved a "good start" as scheduled, the total amount and structure both improved, and the scale of social financing increased significantly. In that month, RMB loans increased by 4.9 trillion yuan, a record high in a single month, an increase of 922.7 billion yuan year-on-year; The increase in social financing reached 5.98 trillion yuan, 195.9 billion yuan less than the same period last year.

(Data pictures are for reference only)

At the end of January, the balance of broad money (M_ [2]) was 273.81 trillion yuan, up 12.6% year on year, 0.8 and 2.8 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the same period last year, respectively. The reporter noticed that the year-on-year growth rate of M_ [2] in that month hit the highest value since April 2016.

The interviewed experts pointed out that the overall strengthening of credit cooperatives in January fully reflected the effectiveness of early policy implementation, the improvement of enterprise expectations, and the consolidation of the positive trend of economic operation. In the first quarter, credit extension will continue to exert its power, but it should be noted that the uncertainty of credit throughout the year or the expansion of residents' balance sheets at the consumer end and the real estate end may become the "ballast stone" of the economy throughout the year.

The credit growth in January started well as scheduled

In January this year, the scale of new RMB loans hit a record high in a single month. In the opinion of many experts, the sharp increase of credit data in the current month is the result of the superposition of multiple factors, such as the recovery of market expectations, the moderate advance of regulatory requirements, and the adequacy of bank's early project reserves.

From the perspective of credit structure, the credit demand of the enterprise sector is stronger than that of the residential sector. Data shows that in January, household loans increased by 257.2 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 34.1 billion yuan, and medium and long-term loans increased by 223.1 billion yuan; Loans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 4.68 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 1.51 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 3.5 trillion yuan, and bill financing decreased by 412.7 billion yuan; Loans from non banking financial institutions decreased by 58.5 billion yuan.

Medium - and long-term corporate loans continue to be the backbone of the credit data of the month. Song Xuetao, chief macro analyst of Tianfeng Securities (601162), said that the demand for medium and long-term loans of enterprises continued to improve in January, or was affected by factors such as policy support and infrastructure development. In terms of infrastructure, this year's issuance of special bonds continued to be ahead of schedule, surpassing the same period last year.

The supporting financing demand for infrastructure construction continued to support the medium and long-term loans of enterprises at the beginning of the year. In the manufacturing sector, the policy continued to work and the enterprise expected rapid repair this year, and the endogenous financing demand of enterprises began to pick up.

In January, the scale of social financing increment was significantly improved. In terms of structure, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 4.93 trillion yuan in January, 730.8 billion yuan more than the previous year; The net financing of corporate bonds was 148.6 billion yuan, 435.2 billion yuan less than that of the previous year; The net financing of government bonds was 414 billion yuan, 188.6 billion yuan less than the previous year.

In January, the government finance relied on forward efforts to keep government bond financing stable, while corporate bond financing was still a major drag. Cheng Qiang, chief macroeconomic analyst of CITIC Securities, said that the redemption pressure in the financial market eased in January, but there has not been a large-scale return, and the interest rate of credit bonds is still relatively high, so enterprises are less willing to issue bonds.

Spring Festival helps increase household deposits

At the end of January, the narrow money (M_ [1]) grew by 6.7% year on year, 3 and 8.6 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the same period last year respectively, reflecting the further repair of business and investment activities of enterprises. It is worth noting that the scissors difference between M_ [1] and M_ [2] in that month is significantly smaller than that in December 2022.

Previously, the sharp rise of residents' savings deposits made the year-on-year growth rate of M_ [2] in the fourth quarter of last year continue to increase, which also led to the deviation between the growth rate of M_ [1] and M_ [2]. With the reduction of the disturbance of the epidemic, whether residents' deposits can flow back to enterprises has attracted the attention of the industry.

Data shows that RMB deposits increased by 6.87 trillion yuan in January, an increase of 3.05 trillion yuan over the previous year. Among them, household deposits increased by 6.2 trillion yuan, non-financial enterprise deposits decreased by 715.5 billion yuan, fiscal deposits increased by 682.8 billion yuan, and deposits of non banking financial institutions increased by 1.01 trillion yuan.

As for the increase of RMB deposits that month, Zhang Xu, chief fixed income analyst of Everbright Securities, told the reporter that in addition to the derivative deposits of asset businesses such as bank loans, the dislocation factor of the Spring Festival was also an important reason. By the end of January this year, the Spring Festival holiday had ended, and cash was flowing back to the banking system and forming deposits. The Spring Festival also caused an increase in household deposits. Enterprises have the habit of paying year-end bonuses and holiday fees before the Spring Festival, so a large number of enterprise deposits will be converted into resident deposits in January.

label: Arrive on schedule