Recently, domestic chips in the semiconductor field continue to become the focus of the market, and concept stocks such as lithography machine, EDA, and chiplet continue to rise. On Friday (September 8), semiconductor related sectors such as lithography machine rebounded again. Tongfei Shares and Shuangle Shares rose by a maximum of 20%, United Precision and Guofeng Xinji by a maximum of 10%, and many stocks such as Rongda Photosensitive, Jiangfeng Electronics, Shengong Shares and Nanda Optoelectronics performed strongly.
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Data source: KNOWN niu stock software
Recently, there has been a lot of good news in the chip semiconductor sector.
First, Huawei's new Mate 60 Pro model was sold out immediately after it was released. At a time when the semiconductor industry was in a downturn, the release of the new model helped to boost confidence in the consumer electronics market; More importantly, in the context of overseas restrictions on China's semiconductor industry, Huawei, together with its domestic Kirin 9000s, has made a comeback, which will drive the growth of electronic consumption and undoubtedly release a signal beyond expectations for the localization process of the domestic semiconductor industry chain.
From the perspective of cycle, the current chip semiconductor industry has been at the bottom of the cycle. Global semiconductor sales rose slightly for four consecutive months. In June, China's semiconductor sales also achieved a 3.2% month on month growth, and the industry inflection point fell. In the subsequent wave of artificial intelligence, the industry prosperity degree turns upward with high certainty.
The industry is still in the adjustment cycle stage
The semiconductor industry is a typical cyclical growth industry with a clear pro cyclical attribute.
Affected by the continued weakness of terminal market demand, the performance of A-share listed companies in the semiconductor industry in 2023 will generally be sluggish. In the first half of the year, the overall net profit attributable to the parent company of 150 listed companies in the semiconductor sector was 17.925 billion yuan, down 56% year on year; Q2's overall net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.705 billion yuan, down 52% year on year.
Except for equipment side and some material companies, and a few chip design enterprises, the performance of most chip design enterprises, chip manufacturers and seal test manufacturers continued to decline.
However, there are still outstanding enterprises in the segmentation field. The former equipment, components and CPU related enterprises saw a rapid growth in net profit in the second quarter of this year.
Among them, the profits of EDA industrial chain enterprises, the mother of chips, increased significantly. According to the statistics of CCID Think Tank, the global market size of EDA will reach 7.23 billion US dollars in 2020, an increase of more than 10% over 2019. With the deepening of localization, the equipment parts and EDA tool enterprises at the front end of the industrial chain will also welcome good development opportunities.
Sort out investment opportunities
Benefiting from the continuous promotion of localization and the large-scale strategic expansion of domestic chip manufacturing enterprises, enterprises such as materials, equipment and parts in the upstream of the semiconductor industry chain are expected to enjoy good development. Among them, leading companies with first mover advantages such as technology and customers may rapidly increase their market share. In addition, the localization rate in the field of high-end logic chips is low, and some chip design leaders that have made breakthroughs in new products are still growing well in the future
Essence Securities said that semiconductor equipment was recommended at the bottom stage. Driven by the recovery of downstream terminal demand, the demand for semiconductor equipment is expected to recover significantly. In the medium and long term, the domestic rate of semiconductor equipment still has a huge room for improvement. It continues to be optimistic about the domestic substitution of equipment.
Tianfeng Securities pointed out that the RF front-end cycle may be at the bottom now, and domestic alternatives will sail. The downstream domestic brands of mobile devices account for more than 40%, but the localization rate of RF front-end is still low. In the 5G communication era, the number of RF front-end devices has increased significantly. Due to the internal space constraints of smart phones, the RF front-end gradually evolves to a highly integrated module solution. With the continuous breakthrough of domestic enterprises' products, domestic substitution starts the next round of growth.
Huajin Securities further pointed out that, as a representative manufacturer of high-end mobile phones in China, Huawei Mate60Pro may lead the development trend of high-end phones in China, which is expected to accelerate the recovery of smart phones in China and accelerate the recovery of prosperity in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. It is suggested to pay attention to Huawei mobile phone hardware, Pangu model and Hongmeng system related industry chain manufacturers.
Li De, an investment adviser of East High Tech (Practice No.: A0100622110008)
Risk tip: This article is only for reference, not as investment advice, and investors should operate accordingly at their own risk.
Key words: East high-tech semiconductor lithography machine market hot spot
