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Viewpoint: The US CPI in December rose 6.5% year on year and fell 0.1% month on month, the first month on month decline in two and a half years. Inflation has fallen back, the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase has slowed down significantly, and the inflection point of the interest rate increase cycle has also been expected. Although this time may not be as early as expected, from the emotional point of view, it will have a positive impact on the US stock market, and indirectly boost the global capital market and A-share.
Yesterday, everyone stared at the US CPI data for December. According to the latest US December CPI data, December CPI rose 6.5% year on year. The value is the same as that expected by the market. It is worth mentioning that the US CPI fell 0.1% month on month in December, the first month on month decline since May 2020. According to the "Federal Reserve Observation" tool of Chicago Mercantile Exchange, after the release of CPI data in December, the futures market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points at the FOMC meeting in early February is as high as 87.7%, while the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points has dropped to 12.3%. Under the first month on month decline in the US CPI data in two and a half years, the US stock market ushered in a bottoming recovery. On January 12 local time, the major European stock indexes also saw an overall rise. The rise of European and American markets has also boosted the current A-share market.
In December, the CPI growth of the United States slowed down for three consecutive months. The Federal Reserve will still raise interest rates in 2023, but the era of excessive interest rate increases may gradually end, which means that the slowdown trend of interest rate increases will gradually become obvious, which is a great benefit to the global capital market. Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase cycle last year, the global capital market has been in a "mess", and everyone has a hard time under global inflation. While US stocks continued to decline, Hong Kong stocks and A-shares also continued to decline.
As we all know, although the core determinant of A-shares is still internal, under the trend of globalization, A-shares will still be affected by overseas factors such as American shares. For example, the economic policies and economic trends of the United States will have an important impact on the trend of the world economy, and then affect the performance of China's economy and assets. As for the stock market, the trend trend of American stocks also has an indirect impact on A-shares. In particular, the rise and fall of concept stocks in American stocks will be directly transmitted to Hong Kong stocks and A-shares, which will have a relatively large impact on the opening of the stock market and similar underlying stocks. In addition, from the perspective of exchange rate, the US monetary policy will also affect the RMB exchange rate to a certain extent, thus triggering the inflow and outflow of overseas funds, which will have an emotional or substantive impact on the A-share market.
Therefore, the reason why the US CPI data is important this time is that it is expected to slow down. However, if the core inflation in the United States can decline as a whole, the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase slowing down and the inflection point of the interest rate increase cycle will be strengthened, which is actually a positive boost for both the US and A-shares. At present, the expectation is gradually strengthening. Although we still need to pay attention to the follow-up data, and there may still be time before the actual inflection point of the interest rate increase cycle, the overall positive impact may gradually emerge under the trend of speculation in the market. On the other hand, at least at present, compared with last year, the impact of overseas factors on the domestic capital market has weakened significantly, and we will gradually shift to the impact of domestic factors. However, under the significant optimization of domestic epidemic prevention and control and the great efforts of policies, the expectation of economic recovery is constantly strengthened, and the market is constantly boosted, which is conducive to the upward trend of Hong Kong shares and A-shares as a whole.
To sum up: the US macro data releases positive signals, bringing short-term boost to the global market. If inflation falls back faster than expected and the inflection point of interest rate increase cycle comes ahead of schedule, it will be more favorable for US stocks and A-shares 。 At present, the weight of A-share influencing factors has gradually shifted to China. With the increasing expectation of economic recovery, the support and boost to the market is expected to increase, thus promoting the overall development of the market.
