The fourth quarter strategy report of Jingshun Great Wall: the economy continues to repair, and the index has limited downward space

Since the second half of this year, A-shares have continued to grind to the bottom, with high dividends and pro cyclical resilience highlighted. What are the opportunities of A-share market in the "closing quarter" of 2023? Which sectors deserve attention? A few days ago, Jingshun Great Wall Fund released the Economic Outlook and Investment Strategy Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2023, saying that looking forward to the fourth quarter, according to the current valuation and risk premium situation, policy implementation efforts and economic repair expectations, the market has fully reflected the pessimistic expectations, the index has a relatively small downward space, actively focuses on structural opportunities, and medium-term focuses on technology High dividends, medicine, the long-term direction of the long-term layout of the twenty major directions, including high-quality development, safety, people's livelihood and other fields.

The economy continues to repair, and the index has limited space to decline significantly

Looking back at the first half of the year, the macro economy continued to show weakness at the beginning of the third quarter after a larger than expected decline in the second quarter of 2023, and various economic data failed to meet market expectations. Faced with the pressure of economic weakness, relevant meetings and a number of stable economic policies continued to be issued, injecting confidence into the market. Jingshun Great Wall Fund said that the economic data in August showed that the downward trend of the economy was initially reversed and showed a trend of recovery, but the driving force of the upward recovery of the economy still needs to be continuously observed and further efforts should be made by the subsequent policy combination.

In terms of asset allocation, Jingshun Great Wall Fund believes that it is optimistic about the future trend of the equity market. The report pointed out that from the perspective of index valuation and risk premium, policy implementation efforts and economic recovery expectations, the current A-share market has been priced with more pessimistic expectations, and the space for the index to decline significantly is relatively limited. Looking ahead, we should be optimistic and patient with the market, and investors can actively focus on structural opportunities. In the bond market, interest rate bonds face continued improvement in economic data, increased supply and financial disturbance; The growth rate of financing scale of credit bonds has slowed down since the third quarter, and the demand side focuses on capital in the fourth quarter. In addition, we held a cautious and optimistic view of the bulk commodity market in the fourth quarter. Specifically, the negative impact of the overseas economic slowdown on the bulk commodity market was limited. The domestic countercyclical adjustment continued, with a certain amount of inventory replenishment superimposed, and the impact on the commodity market was positive.

Focus on science and technology, high dividends, and medicine, and follow the trend of the "Twentieth National Congress"

As the economy continues to repair, Jingshun Great Wall Fund said that it will focus on technology, high dividend, medicine and other investment directions in the field of equity investment. Scientific and technological direction, focusing on artificial intelligence represented by semiconductor, domestic substitution, etc; Secondly, the dividend distribution direction is high. In the environment of weak macro and greater market uncertainty, the dividend return allocation value of many enterprises is still high; The medical direction, represented by medical devices and medical services, has seen medium-term allocation value.

key word: Economics the Great Wall market direction