IPhone 15 with fixed "fruit chain"

On September 17, two days after the launch of Apple iPhone 15, however, the stock price of "Fruit Chain" has not only failed to rise, but has fallen. By the end of September 15, the stock prices of Lucent Precision, Industrial Fulian and other companies had declined. After years of "market education", people seem to understand that Apple's new machine is not the lifeline of the industry chain. Industry opinion points out that, at the moment when the consumer electronics market continues to decline, upstream and downstream manufacturers have "turned around".

The stock price is difficult to "head up"

On the day of the launch of its new products, the Wind Apple Index fell by 2.41%, Kesen Technology, Kerui Technology, Bozhong Precision and Dongshan Precision dropped by more than 5%, Crystal Optoelectronics, Lixun Precision and Changdian Technology dropped by more than 3%, and only Zhaoyi Innovation turned red.

The decline in the share price of fruit chain enterprises is not surprising. In fact, on September 12, EST, Apple's share price once fell 2.5%, and by the end of the day, it had fallen 1.71%, with its total market value falling below $2.8 trillion.

The reason for this situation may be that on the one hand, Apple's "toothpaste squeezing" innovation is disappointing. On the other hand, many investment banks, including UBS and Mizuho, look down on the prospects of iPhone 15, and significantly reduce the expected shipment of new Apple machines by more than 10 million units. The expected shipment of iPhone 15 is between 70 million and 80 million units. In contrast, the stock of iPhone 14 in the same period last year was more than 90 million.

Hong Shibin, an industry observer, believes that the difficulty of mobile phone shipment has become the norm, even for Apple. From the consumer side, people's enthusiasm for changing machines is getting lower and lower, and the stimulating effect of new products is getting weaker and weaker.

Data corroborates this view. According to the latest data released by IDC, the global smartphone shipments in 2023 are expected to decline by 4.7% year on year, to 1.15 billion units, a new low in the past decade. The agency had previously predicted a year-on-year decline of 3.2%, but now it is expected to decline again. IDC said that behind the decline of the mobile phone market, weak global inflation and economic growth expectations are the main reasons.

The situation in China is also not optimistic. The latest data from the China Academy of Information Technology and Communications shows that the domestic mobile phone market shipments fell 6.8% year-on-year in July. By the end of July 2023, the domestic mobile phone shipments fell 5.1% year-on-year, and the 5G mobile phone shipments fell 5.3% year-on-year. The "peak season is not prosperous" has become a cruel reality.

Hong Shibin believes that the reason why this is so is due to the market law. Due to the high-speed iteration of smart phones, even the so-called "low-end computers" can well meet people's use needs over the years, and the technological advantages of high-end products can only be recognized in the segment. For example, the promotion of Apple A17 chip is not strongly perceived by the general public.

Upstream and downstream have "turned around"

Looking at the mobile phone market, it is not difficult to find that the profit generated by a complete mobile phone is getting thinner and thinner, and pushing up the shipment volume is no longer the primary consideration of the brand side. The brand side has turned to promoting ecology and seeking to increase income in the Internet field, which is not good for upstream hardware enterprises.

Apple's latest third quarter financial report can confirm this view. iPhone revenue accounted for less than half of the overall revenue. iPhone revenue in the third quarter was $39.669 billion, down 2.4% year on year, accounting for only 48.5% of the total revenue.

In contrast, Apple's service business performed strongly, with revenue reaching 21.213 billion US dollars, accounting for 25.9% of the total revenue, a record high. Wearable devices, smart homes and accessories also became one of the highlights of Apple's performance. The revenue of this category in the third quarter reached 8.284 billion US dollars, accounting for 10.1% of the total revenue. The pillar position of the iPhone seems to be gradually shaken.

Xu Yiqiang, an industry observer, commented on the reporter of Beijing Business Daily that when looking at the market share of various mobile phone brands, it is no longer possible to measure them from a narrow perspective. With the diversified development of various brands, there are many product lines, such as smart wear and smart home, in addition to mobile phones, so it is necessary to evaluate the brand influence from multiple fields and lines. More importantly, building a brand ecosystem has become a more urgent task, which needs to be achieved through service business.

At the same time, upstream enterprises are also aware of the risk of excessively relying on large single products and large customers, and strive for diversified development and transformation. For example, Lixun Precision, which is famous for producing Apple accessories, has actively entered the automotive field. In the eyes of more and more investors, whether enterprises can develop in multiple fields and create a new growth curve is the basis for buying or not.

In this regard, Lixun Precision said that as early as 2008 and 2009, the company learned and understood the market as a secondary supplier. Many parts in the automotive field have similar development ideas with consumer electronics. These are opportunities that can be taken advantage of. In the future, the company may enter the automotive track by OEM or OEM.

Another market perspective speculates that in the future, can Apple's MR products become a new growth point for fruit chain enterprises, or even replace the current status of AirPods and iPhones?

In response to this problem, relevant "fruit chain" enterprises are quite sober. For example, Lixun Precision said that if the cost of the MR product end and the construction cost of the application platform are effectively controlled, it is hoped to establish a market with a scale of 10 million, but the time required is difficult to determine, and it may take two or three generations of products to iterate. Beijing Business Daily reporter Tao Feng, Wang Zhuli

|Related news|

France and South Korea require to stop selling iPhone 12 due to excessive radiation

Recently, France announced the suspension of sales of iPhone 12 mobile phones on the grounds of excessive radiation.

The French National Frequency Administration announced on September 12 that the electromagnetic wave radiation value of Apple's iPhone 12 mobile phone exceeded the EU standard, and has asked Apple to temporarily remove the phone from the French market from that day. According to the test results released by the regulatory authority, the limb specific absorption rate of this mobile phone is 5.74W/kg (W/kg), which exceeds the upper limit of 4W/kg stipulated by the EU. The specific absorption rate reflects the level of radiation absorbed by the human body when exposed to electromagnetic radiation.

Jean Noel Barrow, the French minister in charge of digital affairs, said that Apple had a 15 day deadline to update the software of relevant mobile phones to make them meet the standards. If the American company does not take action to correct this defect, it may request the recall of all models of Apple phones in the French market.

After France asked to stop selling the iPhone 12, South Korea also made a move. The Yonhap News Agency reported on September 17 that the South Korean Ministry of Science and Technology Information and Communication said the same day that it had asked Apple to submit a report on the radiation problem of the iPhone 12.

The South Korean Ministry of Science, Technology, Information and Communication explained in a press release released on the same day that "the models currently sold in the South Korean market, including the iPhone 12, comply with international standards related to electromagnetic wave safety and have passed the conformity assessment certification". However, in order to eliminate national anxiety, the Ministry of Science and Technology of South Korea still decided to require Apple to explain the relevant situation according to relevant laws.

"In the future, we will ensure the precision verification of four iPhone 12 models (iPhone 12, iPhone 12 Pro, iPhone 12 Mini, iPhone 12 Pro Max)". The Ministry of Science, Technology, Information and Communication of South Korea said that if the re verification result shows that the electromagnetic wave radiation value exceeds the normal standard, the Ministry of Science and Technology will order Apple to make corrections and make a decision to stop importing and selling iPhone 12.

According to Agence France Presse on September 15, an Apple spokesman said in a statement that it would release software updates for France's iPhone 12 phone to make it comply with the standards implemented by French regulators, and expected that this phone would continue to be sold in France.

key word: iPhone Lixun Apple Inc Mobile phone shipments price of stock