(Economic observation) Can China's consumption warming continue in the fourth quarter?

This long holiday is just a concentrated outbreak of the consumer market. Since this year, China's consumer warmth has gradually increased. Data shows that in the first three quarters, both commodity retail and service retail maintained a rapid recovery trend, with the total retail sales of consumer goods growing 6.8% year on year and the retail sales of services growing 18.9% year on year.

Service consumption is rising with a leading growth rate. Sheng Laiyun said that the rapid growth of service retailing was mainly related to the development environment in the past two years. After the epidemic prevention and control transition this year, the economic operation returned to normal, and the service industry, especially the contact service industry, benefited the most. Travel has increased significantly, catering is hot, and service consumption rebounds and recovers relatively quickly.

From the data in September, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased 5.5% year on year, 0.9 percentage points faster than that of last month, and the growth rate accelerated for two consecutive months; The month on month growth was 0.02%.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher in the financial market department of Everbright Bank, told the China News Agency that the year-on-year growth rate of social retail data in September was faster than the market expected, reflecting that the recovery and repair momentum of residents' consumption was significantly accelerated.

On the one hand, under the influence of factors such as the recovery of the domestic economy and the recovery of the consumption scene, the residents' consumption psychology has gradually recovered. The residents' consumption expenditure itself has the demand to return to the perennial. The service consumption expenditure represented by catering has maintained a strong expansion, and the residents' consumption has expanded from necessities to non necessities.

On the other hand, the macro policies are actively making efforts to stabilize employment, improve income and boost expectations. These policies play an active role in promoting the consumption of bulk commodities such as automobiles and accelerating the progress of consumption repair.

So, is it expected to continue the consumption growth trend in the fourth quarter? At the press conference, Sheng Laiyun said to reporters, "I am sure that consumption in the fourth quarter will continue to recover from the first three quarters."

Based on various factors, Sheng Laiyun made the above judgment. For example, the effect of consumption policy continues to emerge. This year, with steady growth and consumption expansion, relevant departments have introduced a series of policies and measures to promote consumption, and local governments have accelerated the implementation of these policies. The policy effect will continue to release.

At the same time, the consumption base of residents has been consolidated. Sheng Laiyun said that consumption ultimately depends on income. The employment situation has improved overall this year. The real income of residents in the first three quarters increased by 5.9%, maintaining a stable growth trend, which laid a good foundation for the sustainable recovery and growth of consumption in the future.

In addition, affected by the epidemic in the fourth quarter of last year, the base of consumption related indicators was low. For example, in the fourth quarter of last year, the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 2.7% year on year. The base effect is conducive to the improvement of consumption data.

Zhou Maohua predicted that residents' consumption will continue to return to the trend level. The main reason is that the confidence of residents and enterprises continues to recover, and the country has gradually entered a virtuous circle of mutual promotion of investment, employment and consumption. At present, in addition to the sales of catering and other service industries recovering to the perennial level, there are still many industries whose commodity sales are still in the recovery stage, and the consumption recovery trend is clear.

Guo Liyan, director of the Situation Office of the Decision making Advisory Department of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomics, said at the "National Forum: Economic Situation Analysis Meeting in the Third Quarter of 2023" held by China News Service that, on the whole, the contribution of consumer spending to economic growth in the first three quarters was more than 70%. At present, consumption is a major driving force supporting the overall macroeconomic recovery. According to the current performance of major categories of consumption, the recovery of residents' income and consumption expenditure, it is expected that the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole year is expected to be around 7%.

key word: Resident consumption Growth rate Total retail sales of consumer goods Restaurant kinetic energy