[Observation of Current Events]

Former title: Will British parliamentary elections be "one-sided"?

Bi Zhenshan

British Prime Minister Sunak announced on May 22 that parliamentary elections would be held on July 4. Since then, a large number of current Conservative Party members have announced that they will withdraw from the election. The Conservative Party currently lags behind the opposition Labor Party in the public opinion support rate, which may repeat the disastrous defeat in 1997. However, in the view of analysts, the two parties actually have their own shortcomings, and the final election results are still to be seen.

According to British media reports, on the evening of May 24 local time, Goff, the British Secretary of State for Regional Balanced Development, Housing and Community Affairs, announced that he would not participate in the election of Heath constituency in Surrey. Goff said that he had been a member of the House of Commons for 19 years, and it was time to let "the new generation lead the way".

After Goff announced her withdrawal from the election, Andrea Lidsom, who had served as a cabinet minister for many times, also announced that she would not participate in the parliamentary elections. According to British media statistics, Conservative MPs who announced that they would no longer participate in parliamentary elections now accounted for about a quarter of the total number of current MPs of the party, more than the number of MPs who withdrew from the party when the Conservative election was defeated in 1997.

Some media commented that when the "Sunak" was sinking, Conservative MPs chose to "abandon the ship and jump into the sea". When Sunak announced that elections would be held in July, many analysts also believed that this was no different from a "political gamble".

According to British law, the new parliamentary election must be held before January 28, 2025. Sunak has hinted many times before that a general election will be held in autumn, and the outside world also predicted that the British economic situation may further improve in autumn, which is conducive to the election of Sunak and the Conservative Party. But on May 22, Sunak announced in the rain that the general election would be held on July 4. Sunak cited his achievements since he became the Chancellor of the Exchequer to the Prime Minister, especially helping Britain achieve "hard won economic stability" after the chaos caused by the policies of former Prime Minister Trass.

However, since the beginning of this year, the Conservative Party has lagged behind the Labour Party in public opinion. The latest poll by the British polling agency Public Opinion Survey Company shows that the support rate of the Conservative Party is only 20%, while the support rate of the Labour Party is as high as 47%. In this case, Stamer, the leader of the Labor Party, has repeatedly asked Sunak to hold an early election. Isn't Sunak's decision to hold a summer election just to meet Stamer's wish?

Some media analysis pointed out that the biggest benefit of early elections for Sunak is the easing of inflation in Britain. According to the data recently released by the Office for National Statistics, the inflation rate in the UK fell to 2.3% in April, the lowest in nearly three years, far below the 11% when Sunak took office. In addition, in the first quarter of this year, the UK economy grew 0.6% month on month, coming out of the "technical recession" in 2023, which is the best quarterly performance since the end of 2021.

However, according to the data released by the Office for National Statistics on May 24, UK retail sales fell 2.3% month on month in April and 0.2% month on month in March. At the beginning of May, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development lowered its forecast for the UK economy this year, predicting that the UK economy would grow by 0.4% this year, lagging behind most G7 members. The OECD also predicted that the UK inflation rate would be 2.7% this year, higher than the 2% target set by the Bank of England.

Analysts pointed out that according to the current data, the British economy may experience a rebound in inflation and slow growth in the second half of the year, which may be one of the reasons for Sunak's election before the autumn.

In addition to the economy, the immigration issue was also regarded as a "plus item" of the general election by Sunak. At the end of April, the two houses of the British Parliament passed a bill related to the "Rwanda Plan". The flight to transfer illegal immigrants to Rwanda is expected to take off before the British election. According to the data released by the British government on May 25, more than 10000 people have crossed the English Channel from France to Britain this year, breaking the record in the same period. Before the general election vote, the immigration problem may ferment in Sunak's favor.

Of course, Sunak and the Conservative Party also have "score reduction" projects. Since the 2016 British referendum on "Brexit", the Conservative Party has changed five prime ministers. Whether it was the scandal of Johnson's illegal gathering during the epidemic or the financial turmoil brought about by Trass's 45 day rule, the Conservative Party gradually lost its popularity.

In the local elections in England and Wales held in early May, the Conservative Party suffered its biggest defeat in nearly 40 years, losing more than 400 local seats and control of 10 local councils. The Labour Party not only saw a surge in the number of seats, but also won the mayoral election in London and the election of the Tory constituency West Midlands. Not only that, the Conservative Party also lost many by elections in the House of Commons, and two Conservative MPs switched to the Labour Party.

For this reason, after Sunak announced the early election, Labor Party leader Stamer issued a statement emphasizing "change". He said that the early election would give Britain a chance to end the "chaos" under the Conservative Party. Stamer said at an election campaign on May 23 that he hoped to renew, rebuild and revitalize Britain.

Stamer, a former human rights lawyer, succeeded Corbin as the new leader of the Labor Party in 2020. Under the leadership of Stamer, the Labor Party proposed a series of reform measures to achieve social equity and economic recovery. According to media analysis, the biggest advantage of the Labour Party is that voters are disappointed with the Conservative Party's governance. However, the Labour Party has not been in power for 14 years, and it is difficult to determine whether voters trust the Labour Party's ability to lead the country.

In addition, Corbin has announced that he will participate in the parliamentary election as an independent candidate, and whether this will cause division within the Labor Party remains to be seen. Stamer's position on the Palestinian Israeli issue has caused controversy in the past, but he said recently that if the Labor Party wins the general election, it will promote Britain to recognize the Palestinian state. These comments may also affect the voting intentions of some voters.

After announcing the early election, Sunak promised to restore the compulsory military service if he was re elected as British Prime Minister. In addition, Sunak also asked for a debate with Stamer. These events may have an impact on the election results. Analysts believe that in addition to the Conservative Party and the Labour Party, the Liberal Democratic Party, the Green Party and the British Reform Party all hope to have a share in the general election. The election process in the next month or more may be full of uncertainties.